Tornado Warning 51, NWS Goodland, KS

686 
WWUS53 KGLD 132216
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COC017-063-132226-
/O.CAN.KGLD.TO.W.0051.000000T0000Z-190813T2230Z/
Cheyenne CO-Kit Carson CO-
416 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND SOUTHEASTERN KIT
CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for east central
Colorado...and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3921 10220 3905 10204 3898 10205 3891 10228
      3911 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 313DEG 14KT 3905 10216 

$$

024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
226 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Starting off today, SPC upgraded the eastern half of our CWA to
an enhanced risk. As of 1:00 PM storms were starting to develop
along our CWA border with NWS Boulder. Looking at the short term
HRRR, we are seeing consistent runs of supercell development.
Surface dewpoints were in the mid to upper 60s, MLCAPE values up
to 3000 J/kg, deep layer shear around 40kts, with steep mid-level
lapse rates, all this in combination of the dryline's location and
daytime heating will fuel a comfortable severe weather threat.

Prime time of convective development will be from 3 PM MDT to 10
PM MDT. Initially we will see discrete supercells producing large
hail, up to 4 inches, with the threat shifting to winds later in
the evening as storms will grow into clusters and become linear in
nature.

Additionally, as a large portion of the Tri-State area has been
met with several days of rainfall, the bar for potential flash
flooding has been set higher. Went and issued a Flash Flood Watch,
for the entire Tri-State area, as these storms are expecting to
produce a good amount of rain over areas already saturated.
Expecting the counties along the Colorado / Kansas border to be at
the highest risk. Expecting the storms to merge this evening and
move southward dumping 1 to 3 inches on those counties underneath.
Flash Flood Watch is expected to last through midnight MDT.

Highs today will be in the mid 80s, with overnight lows near 60.
There may be some areas of patchy fog, but confidence is low at
this time.

Tomorrow, we will see once again warm surface temperatures, in
the mid to upper 80s, moderate deep-layer shear and instability,
steep lapse rates, prevailing again over our CWA. Our strongest
threats will once again be along the Colorado / Kansas border.
Expecting another round of discrete supercells producing larger
hail and potential tors. Followed again by transitioning to a wind
threat and prevailing through the overnight hours as additional
forcing from a shortwave will aid in sustaining convective
development. Flash flooding will again be a concern for tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Thursday, we may see a few severe storms. SPC currently has us
under a marginal risk, but that may change greatly depending on
how convection plays out Wednesday along the Kansas / Nebraska
border. Regardless, expecting convective development with peak
afternoon heating and lasting through the evening hours. Guidance
is still quite a bit in disagreement as to what will happen, so
confidence remains low at this time as to extent of impacts to the
Tri-State area.

Friday onward, wide disagreement with model guidance. Went with
the National Blend at this time. Expecting near normal
temperatures with daily thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday
afternoon. Sunday through Tuesday, very slight chances for
convection and near normal highs and lows through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the TAF period at the Goodland and McCook terminals. There will
be showers and storms developing this afternoon, but timing and
confidence on extent and impacts to the terminals is too low to
include at this time. If any of the storms do impact the
terminals, sub-vfr conditions are expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...EV
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141830-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 /119 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NWS Goodland has issued a Tornado Watch until 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT
for the entire NWS Goodland area.

Additionally, NWS Goodland has issued a Flood Watch until 12 AM MDT /
1 AM MDT.

There are enhanced/slight risks for severe thunderstorms across much
of the Tri-State area this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to
baseball size, winds in excess of 60 mph and localized heavy
rainfall producing sharply reduced visibilities and the potential
for flash flooding will be the primary threats Tuesday from
approximately 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) through 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out but is not a primary threat with
storms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across almost the
entire Tri-State area Wednesday during the late-afternoon through
the overnight hours. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds, and localized heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TORNADO          1 N BETHUNE             39.32N 102.42W
08/13/2019                   KIT CARSON         CO   STORM CHASER

            POSSIBLE RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADO 1 MILE N OF
            BETHUNE AT 325 MT.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
348 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             2 N TRAER               39.96N 100.65W
08/13/2019  E2.00 INCH       DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
349 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N TRAER               39.96N 100.65W
08/13/2019  E82 MPH          DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
351 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090-NEZ079-132215-
Yuma County CO-Dundy NE-
351 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL YUMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 351 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Wray, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wray and Laird.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 242 and 252.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for northeastern
Colorado...northwestern Kansas...and southwestern Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4011 10186 4000 10202 4000 10205 3998 10205
      3993 10212 4015 10232 4028 10214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 318DEG 19KT 4017 10217

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
354 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW BURLINGTON         39.29N 102.30W
08/13/2019                   KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED VIA TWITTER STREET FLOODING
            1 MILE S AND 2 MILES W OF BURLINGTON. REPORT
            INCLUDED A VIDEO SHOWING STREET FLOODING.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
356 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SE PALISADE           40.30N 101.01W
08/13/2019                   HITCHCOCK          NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED WATER OVER RAILROAD TRACK
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 25/6.

&&

JN