Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Dense fog has finally dissipated with patchy fog remaining over
portions of the area. As a result have cancelled the Advisory.
This should burn off by midday. No changes to remainder of the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

A ridge moves over the Intermountain West with the center of upper
level high pressure shifting west over the southwestern U.S.
Tuesday. A trough sits over the eastern half of the U.S. The ridge
over the west and the trough over the east remain in place through
Wednesday night. Shortwaves moves southeast across the Tri-State
region Tuesday and Wednesday evening. This pattern leads to
northwesterly flow over the central U.S. today through tomorrow
night.

Tight surface gradients today and tomorrow will lead to stronger
winds during the evening and early overnight hours. A stationary
boundary is expected to be set up along the Front Range today,
slowly shifting east. This boundary will help provide lift for storm
development. Where the actual boundary sets up will determine the
extent of storms today through tomorrow night.

Model guidance shows MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg and greater across
the western and southern portions of the CWA this afternoon and
evening. Bulk shear looks to be sufficient for organized storm
development this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values
(PWATs) should recover and increase across much of the Tri-State
area during the day today providing ample moisture for thunderstorms
to develop.

Most models show the possibility of a few discrete cells
initially as storms develop this afternoon before the storms move
southeast and become more linear in nature. If storms can initially
remain discrete, the main threats would be large hail, damaging
winds, and localized heavy rainfall. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out. Something to consider is that multiple models are showing
Sig Hail Parameter values of 1.5-2 which combined with other
environmental factors could mean hail of 2+ inches this afternoon
and evening with initial discrete cells. As the storms conglomerate
and become more linear, the threats would shift more towards
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and heavy rain.

Regarding Wednesday, the NAM has MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg and
greater but the values are lower overall than today. PWATs are
expected to be slightly lower than today with sufficient bulk shear.
Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected again Wednesday
evening. Hazards will be hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy
rainfall once again. The magnitude of the hazards Wednesday
evening will likely be less than the hazard potential of today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Thu: The Tri-State area will remain on the northeast periphery of
an upper level ridge, in WNW-NW flow aloft -- a notoriously
challenging synoptic pattern with regard to precipitation chances.
Scattered convection will be possible -- along with some risk for
severe weather -- primarily during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Further details cannot reasonably be ascertained at this
time.

Fri-Tue: Considerable variability (model-to-model and run-to-
run) amongst long range guidance lends very little confidence to
this portion of the forecast. With this in mind -- the forecast
will more-or-less reflect climatology, i.e. near normal
temperatures and dry conditions aside from a small potential for
isolated diurnal convection in eastern Colorado during the late
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the TAF period at the Goodland and McCook terminals. There will
be showers and storms developing this afternoon, but timing and
confidence on extent and impacts to the terminals is too low to
include at this time. If any of the storms do impact the
terminals, sub-vfr conditions are expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...NEWMAN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...EV

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