Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1151 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Dense fog has finally dissipated with patchy fog remaining over
portions of the area. As a result have cancelled the Advisory.
This should burn off by midday. No changes to remainder of the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 404 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

A ridge moves over the Intermountain West with the center of upper
level high pressure shifting west over the southwestern U.S.
Tuesday. A trough sits over the eastern half of the U.S. The ridge
over the west and the trough over the east remain in place through
Wednesday night. Shortwaves moves southeast across the Tri-State
region Tuesday and Wednesday evening. This pattern leads to
northwesterly flow over the central U.S. today through tomorrow
night.

Tight surface gradients today and tomorrow will lead to stronger
winds during the evening and early overnight hours. A stationary
boundary is expected to be set up along the Front Range today,
slowly shifting east. This boundary will help provide lift for storm
development. Where the actual boundary sets up will determine the
extent of storms today through tomorrow night.

Model guidance shows MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg and greater across
the western and southern portions of the CWA this afternoon and
evening. Bulk shear looks to be sufficient for organized storm
development this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values
(PWATs) should recover and increase across much of the Tri-State
area during the day today providing ample moisture for thunderstorms
to develop.

Most models show the possibility of a few discrete cells
initially as storms develop this afternoon before the storms move
southeast and become more linear in nature. If storms can initially
remain discrete, the main threats would be large hail, damaging
winds, and localized heavy rainfall. A tornado or two cannot be
ruled out. Something to consider is that multiple models are showing
Sig Hail Parameter values of 1.5-2 which combined with other
environmental factors could mean hail of 2+ inches this afternoon
and evening with initial discrete cells. As the storms conglomerate
and become more linear, the threats would shift more towards
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and heavy rain.

Regarding Wednesday, the NAM has MLCAPE values of 2000 J/kg and
greater but the values are lower overall than today. PWATs are
expected to be slightly lower than today with sufficient bulk shear.
Thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected again Wednesday
evening. Hazards will be hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy
rainfall once again. The magnitude of the hazards Wednesday
evening will likely be less than the hazard potential of today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

Thu: The Tri-State area will remain on the northeast periphery of
an upper level ridge, in WNW-NW flow aloft -- a notoriously
challenging synoptic pattern with regard to precipitation chances.
Scattered convection will be possible -- along with some risk for
severe weather -- primarily during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Further details cannot reasonably be ascertained at this
time.

Fri-Tue: Considerable variability (model-to-model and run-to-
run) amongst long range guidance lends very little confidence to
this portion of the forecast. With this in mind -- the forecast
will more-or-less reflect climatology, i.e. near normal
temperatures and dry conditions aside from a small potential for
isolated diurnal convection in eastern Colorado during the late
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the TAF period at the Goodland and McCook terminals. There will
be showers and storms developing this afternoon, but timing and
confidence on extent and impacts to the terminals is too low to
include at this time. If any of the storms do impact the
terminals, sub-vfr conditions are expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...NEWMAN
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141830-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1219 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019 /119 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NWS Goodland has issued a Tornado Watch until 7 PM MDT / 8 PM CDT
for the entire NWS Goodland area.

Additionally, NWS Goodland has issued a Flood Watch until 12 AM MDT /
1 AM MDT.

There are enhanced/slight risks for severe thunderstorms across much
of the Tri-State area this afternoon and evening. Large hail up to
baseball size, winds in excess of 60 mph and localized heavy
rainfall producing sharply reduced visibilities and the potential
for flash flooding will be the primary threats Tuesday from
approximately 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) through 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT). A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out but is not a primary threat with
storms today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms across almost the
entire Tri-State area Wednesday during the late-afternoon through
the overnight hours. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds, and localized heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1240 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090-131900-
Yuma County CO-
1240 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
MDT...

At 1240 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Yuma, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yuma, Eckley, Abarr and Heartstrong.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for northeastern
Colorado.

LAT...LON 4027 10232 3969 10250 3978 10280 4030 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 292DEG 6KT 3995 10274

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
101 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090-131915-
Yuma County CO-
101 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM
MDT...

At 101 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Yuma, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Yuma, Eckley, Abarr and Heartstrong.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for northeastern
Colorado.

LAT...LON 4024 10225 3965 10246 3977 10280 4024 10279
      4032 10276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 288DEG 19KT 4017 10266

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
122 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

COZ090-131945-
Yuma County CO-
122 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM MDT...

At 122 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cope, or 24 miles north of Seibert, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Joes and Kirk.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for northeastern
Colorado.

LAT...LON 3978 10280 3970 10254 3957 10259 3957 10280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 261DEG 19KT 3966 10288

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
132 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0131 PM     HAIL             3 SE YUMA               40.09N 102.68W
08/13/2019  M1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT TUE AUG 13 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NNW HEARTSTRONG       40.01N 102.63W
08/13/2019                   YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER SAW FUNNEL CLOUD. 13 S/SE YUMA.

&&

JN