Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
215 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
MCS in TN continues to weaken with only residual outflow boundary
moving into far north GA attm. Scattered convection already
firing over middle GA and NE AL in very warm and unstable airmass
however. Will likely see additional convection go up on outflow
boundary with increasing coverage overall. SPC MD recently issued
indicates Svr Tstm watch likely coming out soon.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 741 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Active NW flow aloft will continue through Sunday. A nearly
stationary surface boundary will remain situated across the
Carolinas, extending into northern GA.

500mb analysis shows W/NW flow aloft across the CWFA on top of a
high centered across the Gulf. The models are progging the ridge to
start building across the central gulf coast, and starting to slowly
inch eastward today into early Sunday. The flow will turn even more
NW with several strong pieces of shortwave energy noted in the flow.
The current WV loop shows a second MCS gearing up over the Mid MS
Valley and drop SE in the flow. The MCS should impact portions of
the CWFA later today.

At the surface, the old boundary is providing focus for the upper
level energy. The MCS over the Mid Ms River valley will continue to
drop SE today. It may weaken somewhat as it approaches the CWFA
during the early part of the day, but do think additional storms
could fire up along the leading edge/outflow of the system during
the most unstable part of the afternoon. The atmos remains very
unstable, with abundant fuel for these types of systems. The main
storm mode overnight has been damaging wind gusts, but do think the
hail potential will increase with any system that moves through
during the afternoon/evening hours. Models are progging lapse rates
7.5-8 C/km. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

The high res models (and synoptic) models all struggle with these
types of systems. But experience says there should be a lull during
the early part of the morning, possibly into the very first hours of
the afternoon. But, convective activity will increase during the
afternoon, either with the MCS currently over the Mid MS valley or
out just out ahead of it. Storms should begin to diminish/weaken
during the mid evening and into the overnight. As in previous days,
the hi-res models are in disagreement with timing and placement of
any afternoon activity. Have tried to take a compromise for timing
but the wrf seems a bit more reasonable with coverage.

Models continue to prog some shortwave energy dropping southeast in
the flow for Sunday, so another round of storms are possible. Will
keep pops to scattered for now.

Also, have made a slight change to the Heat Advisory in place.
Have added Wheeler/Telfair. The Heat Advisory area should be the
last to see any convection today, so the chances are good that
criteria will be reached.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
A shift in the mid levels begins to occur late Sunday as ridging
aloft tries to push east across the CWFA. The ridge will only be
brief and the flow will turn slightly more zonal/SW by Tuesday. By
the mid to latter part of the week, the models are progging an upper
low to meander across the central Gulf Coast.  An upper ridge over
the Atlantic begins to build westward during the weekend, keeping
the upper low to the west at this time.

A weak surface boundary will continue to hang around northern GA for
the middle part of the week. This feature will tend to serve as a
diurnal focus for precip. The pattern looks a bit drier by the end
of the week as ridging at the surface and aloft builds across the
area.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected however scattered SHRA/TSRA likely thru at
least 22Z at most airports. Could be gusts over 35kts with any
TSRA. Sfc winds will remain W to WNW but will vary in storm areas.
Another round of SHRA/TSRA likely Sun afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA timing.
High conf on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  90  72 /  60  40  30  10
Atlanta         91  73  90  74 /  50  40  30  10
Blairsville     83  65  83  66 /  70  50  40  10
Cartersville    90  71  90  72 /  60  40  40  10
Columbus        93  74  94  74 /  50  40  20   5
Gainesville     88  70  87  72 /  60  40  40  10
Macon           94  72  94  72 /  50  40  30  10
Rome            90  71  92  72 /  60  40  40   5
Peachtree City  90  72  91  72 /  50  40  30  10
Vidalia         95  73  93  73 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Emanuel...Montgomery...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...
Wheeler.

&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1153 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231600-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1153 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
again this afternoon. A few severe thunderstorms are possible with
damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for southeast portions of the
outlook area. Heat Indices will approach 105 degrees in the
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
Sunday through Thursday, primarily in the afternoon and evening
hours. A chance for isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out, especially on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Spotters are
encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather through the web by
going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ084-085-097-221815-
Wilkinson GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
146 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON...WESTERN
JOHNSON AND NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 146 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chappells Mill, or 11
miles northwest of Dublin...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dublin, East Dublin, Chappells Mill, Tuckers Crossroad and
Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3255 8288 3257 8315 3272 8320 3279 8300
      3277 8296 3276 8296 3276 8294 3271 8284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 255DEG 17KT 3265 8305

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ098-112-221830-
Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
153 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TREUTLEN AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 153 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lothair, or near
Soperton...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Soperton, Tarrytown, Lothair, Orland, Barnhill, Zaidee and Gillis
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3229 8243 3229 8264 3230 8267 3229 8267
      3231 8273 3233 8274 3233 8275 3235 8273
      3239 8272 3241 8270 3244 8270 3250 8250
      3245 8241 3242 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 255DEG 17KT 3235 8265

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ073-074-084-221830-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Baldwin GA-
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 159 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over McIntyre, or near
Irwinton...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Irwinton, Gordon, Ivey, McIntyre, Toomsboro, Oconee,
Midway-Hardwick, Coopers, Pancras, Scottsboro, Hebron and Hardwick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3271 8325 3290 8337 3308 8325 3300 8297
      3279 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 255DEG 17KT 3285 8323

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
214 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ083-084-096-097-221845-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
214 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILKINSON...NORTHWESTERN
LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY AND TWIGGS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

At 214 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Fitzpatrick to near Danville...and moving southeast at
25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Jeffersonville, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Marion, Bullard,
Fitzpatrick, Nicklesville, Ripley, Huber, District Path, Dry Branch,
Myricks Mill and Chappells Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3259 8352 3276 8356 3279 8352 3280 8351
      3279 8331 3273 8319 3268 8302 3248 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 307DEG 23KT 3274 8344 3266 8322

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

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