Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Active NW flow aloft will continue through Sunday. A nearly
stationary surface boundary will remain situated across the
Carolinas, extending into northern GA.

500mb analysis shows W/NW flow aloft across the CWFA on top of a
high centered across the Gulf. The models are progging the ridge to
start building across the central gulf coast, and starting to slowly
inch eastward today into early Sunday. The flow will turn even more
NW with several strong pieces of shortwave energy noted in the flow.
The current WV loop shows a second MCS gearing up over the Mid MS
Valley and drop SE in the flow. The MCS should impact portions of
the CWFA later today.

At the surface, the old boundary is providing focus for the upper
level energy. The MCS over the Mid Ms River valley will continue to
drop SE today. It may weaken somewhat as it approaches the CWFA
during the early part of the day, but do think additional storms
could fire up along the leading edge/outflow of the system during
the most unstable part of the afternoon. The atmos remains very
unstable, with abundant fuel for these types of systems. The main
storm mode overnight has been damaging wind gusts, but do think the
hail potential will increase with any system that moves through
during the afternoon/evening hours. Models are progging lapse rates
7.5-8 C/km. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either.

The high res models (and synoptic) models all struggle with these
types of systems. But experience says there should be a lull during
the early part of the morning, possibly into the very first hours of
the afternoon. But, convective activity will increase during the
afternoon, either with the MCS currently over the Mid MS valley or
out just out ahead of it. Storms should begin to diminish/weaken
during the mid evening and into the overnight. As in previous days,
the hi-res models are in disagreement with timing and placement of
any afternoon activity. Have tried to take a compromise for timing
but the wrf seems a bit more reasonable with coverage.

Models continue to prog some shortwave energy dropping southeast in
the flow for Sunday, so another round of storms are possible. Will
keep pops to scattered for now.

Also, have made a slight change to the Heat Advisory in place.
Have added Wheeler/Telfair. The Heat Advisory area should be the
last to see any convection today, so the chances are good that
criteria will be reached.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
A shift in the mid levels begins to occur late Sunday as ridging
aloft tries to push east across the CWFA. The ridge will only be
brief and the flow will turn slightly more zonal/SW by Tuesday. By
the mid to latter part of the week, the models are progging an upper
low to meander across the central Gulf Coast.  An upper ridge over
the Atlantic begins to build westward during the weekend, keeping
the upper low to the west at this time.

A weak surface boundary will continue to hang around northern GA for
the middle part of the week. This feature will tend to serve as a
diurnal focus for precip. The pattern looks a bit drier by the end
of the week as ridging at the surface and aloft builds across the
area.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
A lull in precip is expected during the morning and early
afternoon hours. Another complex of thunderstorms is expected to
move south across the area later this afternoon into the evening
hours. The hi-res models have struggled the last few days, but
have tried to take a consensus between solutions. The timing for
thunder will likely have to be shifted during later AMD's,
depending upon how fast/how slow the system over western KY moves
south. Winds should remain on the west side, outside of
thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence on timing of afternoon convection. Med-high
confidence remaining elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  90  72 /  60  50  30  10
Atlanta         91  73  90  74 /  60  50  30  10
Blairsville     84  65  83  66 /  60  50  40  10
Cartersville    90  71  90  72 /  60  50  40  10
Columbus        94  74  94  74 /  40  40  20   5
Gainesville     88  70  87  72 /  60  50  40  10
Macon           96  72  94  72 /  60  40  30  10
Rome            91  71  92  72 /  50  50  40   5
Peachtree City  91  72  91  72 /  60  50  30  10
Vidalia         96  73  93  73 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Emanuel...Montgomery...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...
Wheeler.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1153 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231600-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
1153 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
again this afternoon. A few severe thunderstorms are possible with
damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for southeast portions of the
outlook area. Heat Indices will approach 105 degrees in the
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
Sunday through Thursday, primarily in the afternoon and evening
hours. A chance for isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out, especially on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Spotters are
encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather through the web by
going to weather.gov/atlanta.

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