Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

.UPDATE...
MCS currently pushing south across the ATL metro. The western end
of the line continues to show signs of weakening, but strong/gusty
storms still likely. The eastern edge of the line continues to be
a bit more robust and warnings continue at this time. The
potential for severe thunderstorms will continue...mainly over
east and north central GA early this morning. An isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out, but the primary hazard will be damaging wind
gusts. Have updated pops to reflect current conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 950 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019/

Update...
Have updated pops to increase them across the north and down the
Savannah River Valley area overnight in anticipation of the
southeast moving thunderstorms complex. Storms on the southern end
seem to show a weakening trend...but may hold together to affect
portions of the area after midnight.

41

Previous...
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
Main concerns in the short term period are chances and timing of
convection associated with MCS or remnant MCS in northwest flow
and excessive heat.

Hires guidance not clear at all on timing and evolution of MCS
currently over MO/IL nor with sea breeze convection forecast to
initiate and move into SW GA and possibly affect WC GA and even
ATL metro this evening. Regardless of timing of MCSs, will be very
substantial CAPE and weak-mdt mid level shear in NW flow, a very
favorable environment in our experience. Could see similar number
of warnings and wind events as we saw yesterday.

Extreme heat also a concern, came close to issuing an advisory for
parts of WC GA valid this afternoon/evening. Parameters more
favorable Saturday over far SE counties so based on collaboration
with neighboring offices, have issued advisory for 4 SE most
counties for now. Dewpoints were fcst too low today so will need
to monitor in case they are too low again tomorrow.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
The extended portion of the forecast remains mainly on track, with
only minor adjustments made based on the latest guidance. High
temperatures through the period are anticipated to be about 1-4
degrees above average with mainly upper 80s in north Georgia and low
to mid 90s in central Georgia, while low temperatures are
anticipated to be 4-8 degrees above average with upper 60s in north
Georgia and low 70s in central Georgia. Of particular interest is
Sunday afternoon, when dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will likely
contribute to heat indices in excess of 100 and approaching 105
across central Georgia. A weak upper level ridge in place to the
west will have the forecast area near the edge of an active
northwesterly flow region as the period begins on Sunday.
Disturbances traversing the northwesterly flow aloft could allow for
some mesoscale convective systems to move through north and central
Georgia on the east side of the ridge on Sunday, which will need to
be monitored.

The ridge axis will begin to flatten and position itself over our
area on Sunday night and into Monday. The influence of the ridge
should reduce rain chances during this time, but will likely not be
strong enough to suppress the diurnally driven convection
entirely. On Monday, a flattening upper level trough will move
northeastward across the eastern CONUS, dropping a surface front
into the southeast. With the trough far away to the north near the
Great Lakes region Monday night/Tuesday morning, the front itself
will not be particularly strong or well-defined. Model guidance
is nonetheless coming into better agreement that this front will
allow for an increase in the convective coverage across north
Georgia on Monday night into Tuesday as the front pushes southward
through the area. Later next week, a more amplified pattern and
less progressive pattern sets up as a broad upper ridge begins to
build in over the west-central CONUS. Meanwhile, weak inverted
troughing will remain in place over the southeast. With ample Gulf
moisture over the area, typical summertime conditions are
expected during the latter half of next week, with scattered
diurnally driven convection each afternoon.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
MCS continues to move south across the ATL metro. The western end
of the line has weakened somewhat, but gusts to 30-35kt will
still be likely along with thunderstorms. Sct-bkn 035-040 most
likely through the remainder of the morning, but another round of
thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Timing is still tricky, but
most likely during the mid/latter half of the afternoon. Winds my
try and go NE for a few hours behind the MCS, but not confident.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence winds through 09z. Med confidence on timing of
thunder for the afternoon/early evening. High confidence remaining
elements.

NListemaa

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  71  92  72 /  60  50  30  20
Atlanta         93  72  91  74 /  40  50  30  20
Blairsville     83  65  85  66 /  60  50  40  20
Cartersville    91  71  90  72 /  50  50  30  10
Columbus        96  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  20
Gainesville     88  70  89  72 /  50  50  30  20
Macon           96  72  95  73 /  40  40  30  20
Rome            91  71  91  72 /  50  50  30  10
Peachtree City  93  70  92  72 /  40  50  30  20
Vidalia         96  73  94  75 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
the following zones: Banks...Barrow...Carroll...Cherokee...
Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...
Fayette...Forsyth...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Heard...Henry...
Jackson...Lumpkin...Madison...Morgan...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Rockdale...South Fulton...
Walton...White.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening
for the following zones: Emanuel...Montgomery...Toombs...
Treutlen.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1054 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-230300-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1054 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be maintained
moving into the overnight hours for northern Georgia. Continuous
thunderstorm development will occur along a southeasterly moving
outflow boundary which will continue to produce a risk for
widespread damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
Saturday through Thursday, primarily in the afternoon and evening
hours. A few severe storms are possible on Saturday with damaging
winds, frequent lightning, hail, and heavy rain. The possibility
of a tornado cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Spotters are
encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather through the web by
going to weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
216 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ025-027-034>039-046>051-220700-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Morgan GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Gwinnett GA-
Newton GA-Madison GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-
Greene GA-Oconee GA-
216 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TALIAFERRO...
WILKES...MORGAN...WALTON...NORTHEASTERN ROCKDALE...SOUTHEASTERN
GWINNETT...NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...MADISON...SOUTHERN JACKSON...
BARROW...OGLETHORPE...CLARKE...GREENE AND OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300
AM EDT...

At 214 AM EDT...Strong winds associated with a line of strong
thunderstorms extended from near Danielsville to Bogart and
Loganville, moving east at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, occasional cloud-to-ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Winder, Monroe, Covington, Jefferson, Washington, Madison,
Greensboro, Watkinsville, Danielsville, Lexington, Athens,
Loganville, Auburn, Dacula, Social Circle, Statham, Arcade,
Nicholson, Union Point and Walnut Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3383 8260 3381 8259 3349 8328 3343 8352
      3375 8402 3406 8380 3425 8322 3424 8317
      3427 8311 3423 8308 3417 8310 3415 8306
      3405 8299 3403 8293 3401 8294 3397 8278
      3399 8266 3386 8261 3387 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 285DEG 56KT 3421 8308 3406 8320 3385 8367 3370
8395

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
221 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

GAZ042-045-046-048-052>059-066>068-070-071-220700-
Butts GA-Fayette GA-Rockdale GA-Monroe GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-
Troup GA-Heard GA-Jasper GA-Meriwether GA-Newton GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
Lamar GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Spalding GA-
221 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTTS...FAYETTE...ROCKDALE...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE...COWETA...SOUTHERN CARROLL...TROUP...HEARD...
JASPER...MERIWETHER...NEWTON...PIKE...HENRY...LAMAR...CLAYTON...
SOUTHEASTERN DEKALB AND SPALDING COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 219 AM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong winds ahead of a line of thunderstorms extending from near
Conyers to Fayetteville and Ephesus, moving southeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...35 to 45 mph wind preceding rain or lightning.

  IMPACT...Strong winds will occur before any rain or lightning. Do
           not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
           Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Newnan, LaGrange, Griffin, McDonough, Fayetteville, Conyers,
Covington, Barnesville, Jackson, Jonesboro, Monticello, Zebulon,
Franklin, Greenville, Peachtree City, Stockbridge, Riverdale,
Hampton, Tyrone and Morrow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3350 8461 3363 8419 3375 8402 3343 8353
      3322 8371 3304 8403 3300 8439 3299 8521
      3345 8530
TIME...MOT...LOC 0619Z 316DEG 36KT 3341 8527 3344 8490 3350 8449 3359
8416 3371 8402

WIND...50MPH

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