River Flood Warning 123, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
927 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

.UPDATE...

Bowing line has continued to press steadily eastward this evening
through Alabama. Intensity has been relatively well maintained
despite considerably lower instability across eastern AL into GA.
While intensity may gradually lessen over the next several hours,
line will pose a gusty wind threat. For this reason, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued across the western portion of
the CWA through 07z.

RW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 742 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...
Forecast focus through the short term continues to be severe storm
potential overnight tonight and into Friday. Strong frontal system
ahead of an amplifying upper low will push across the area
overnight night. Short-term hi-res models have shifted the timing
slightly, but are in general agreement that showers with embedded
storms will arrive to the northwest GA border around midnight
tonight. A line of thunderstorms will progress east and south
through the overnight period, with the metro Atlanta area threat
being 4AM to 8AM or so, and then central GA after 8AM. Model
instability is similar to the previous runs, with CAPE of 500-1000
J/kg, and impressive shear (bulk deep layer and low-level
helicity). Main threats continue to be damaging winds and brief
spin-up tornadoes, with large hail and heavy rain tied as a close
second. Have continued mention of severe storms in the
grids/zones. SPC has updated their outlooks to include a larger
portion of western GA in the Slight Risk for tonight through 8AM
Friday, and a large portion of the state (east/central) in Slight
or Enhanced Risk for after 8AM. QPF looks to be mainly 1-1.5
inches with locally higher, especially in the northeast Georgia
mountains, so some isolated flash flooding is possible. This is
particularly true in areas where storms train over the same area.

Likely to high end chance pops continue over far north Georgia for
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening as wrap around
moisture and upper level dynamics support continued
showers/drizzle. Expect dropping temperatures by early afternoon,
making for a chilly spring day tomorrow.

31

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
Cool temperatures and a few lingering showers to start out this
extended forecast period on the back side of the exiting system on
Saturday. Temperatures start out a good bit below seasonal normals
Saturday, but rebound to near normal by Sunday and then above normal
for the balance of the period. Also looking dry through the majority
of the period with the mid/late week system trending a bit slower
with the latest model runs.

20

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Current VFR conditions will deteriorate quickly overnight as shra
and tsra increase from the west. Some uncertainty remains with
the arrival time of heaviest tsra which may begin to approach as
early as 03-04z but more likely around and after 06z. Expect tsra
to push eastward by 11-13z at ATL sites. MVFR cigs more likely
after 04z persisting into the day Friday. Gusty SE winds this
evening into the first part of tonight will shift SW after 09-11z.
Speeds of 12-15kts with gusts 22-26kts expected with higher gusts
possible in tsra.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on tsra timing overnight into Friday morning.
High on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  68  46  59 /  80  90  30  30
Atlanta         62  66  45  58 / 100  90  30  30
Blairsville     58  63  40  52 / 100  80  60  50
Cartersville    60  65  43  57 / 100  80  50  30
Columbus        62  67  46  64 / 100  90  20  10
Gainesville     62  65  45  55 /  90  90  30  30
Macon           65  69  46  63 /  80  90  20  20
Rome            59  63  43  57 / 100  70  50  40
Peachtree City  62  66  44  60 / 100  90  30  20
Vidalia         67  75  50  65 /  20 100  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 3 AM EDT Friday for the
following zones: Bartow...Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...
Chattooga...Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
Dade...DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Floyd...Gordon...Haralson...
Harris...Heard...Henry...Lamar...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Muscogee...North Fulton...Paulding...Pike...Polk...
Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taylor...Troup...Upson...Walker...Webster.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
421 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-192030-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
421 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A strong storm system will bring a round of thunderstorms to
portions of north and west central Georgia late tonight into early
Friday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with damaging
wind, brief spin up tornadoes, large hail and heavy rainfall. Storms
should enter the northwest close to midnight and make it across much
of north and west central Georgia by 7 AM Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

The strong storm system and associated thunderstorms will continue
pushing eastward through Friday morning into the afternoon across
portions of north and central Georgia. Strong to severe storms
remain possible with damaging wind, brief spin up tornadoes, large
hail and heavy rainfall. The storms should be pushing across
northeast and central Georgia mainly from 6 AM until 11 AM Friday
and across east central Georgia from 11 AM until 2 PM.

Otherwise no hazardous weather is expected until Wednesday and
Thursday when a slight chance for thunderstorms returns to the
area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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