Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
246 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
We'll take "All Scales of Motion" for $500 today across South
Central Texas. Fortunately, the variety of forcings from local and
low (boundaries) to region-wide and high (shortwave trough and jet
streak exit region) have dissipated into the background regime or are
consistent enough to settle into a climatologically-favorable
morphology for this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The 12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF and more recent TTech WRF/HRRR/HREF runs are in general
agreement with that evolution, from isolated to scattered storms
moving from West Texas and Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon, to an eventual merging of cold pools and an MCS rolling
though the southeastern 1/2 of the area. Some supercells are
possible through early evening before the cold pools merge.

The greatest severe threat will be damaging wind, with lesser threat
of large hail and a very small chance for a tornado or two. The
prime severe threat area will be near supercells along the Rio Grande
through about 7-8 pm, then transitioning to along and east of I-35 by
10-11 pm. Of special concern area is along and south of U.S. 90 from
Uvalde to San Antonio to Gonzales, where the models indicate the
highest damaging wind threat. Rainfall amounts will be spotty in the
west, from 1/10 inch up to one inch. Locations in the middle should
see 1/4 to one inch, and locations along and east of I-35 1 to 2
inches. A few spots east of I-35 may see up to 4 inches. Some minor
flash flooding is possible due to the rain/runoff from storms earlier
today, in addition to the storms expected tonight.

The good news is the shortwave trough will move east and a rapid
clearing/drying trend from west to east will occur on Saturday. Rain
should be over by midday except for all but the far eastern coastal
plains, and rain should end there by mid-afternoon. Some fog is
likely late Saturday night along and east of I-35, but that will be
addressed by later forecasts when the clearing trend and near-ground
wetness after the rain are more evident.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Sunday is the day for outdoor activity for the next week, with low-
amplitude ridging is over the area. Temperatures will be seasonal and
relative humidity fairly low after daytime heating dissipates
morning fog.

The longwave pattern will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms and heavy rain as next week progresses, with a large and
digging western U.S. trough, and a strengthening Jet Stream across
northern Mexico and into Texas. Shortwave troughs will eject out of
the longwave trough every 24-36 hours to provide the primary lift. At
this time, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday appear to be the days with
the best chances for rain. The chances for severe storms will
increase for Wednesday and Friday as the shortwave troughs are deeper
and the boundary layer has more time to moisten and increase
instability. Friday is of the highest concern, as a cold front
appears to stall from west to east across our area. Diffluent
1000-500 mb thickness over our area points to slow-moving, stalling,
or possibly even back-building convection. Combined with echo
training along the front, that is a recipe for very heavy rain and
significant flash and river flooding. While at this forecast range
details are variable and fuzzy, pay attention to the how the forecast
evolves through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  80  62  83  66 /  70  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  80  61  83  64 /  70  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  80  61  83  64 /  80  20   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  78  60  81  64 /  60  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  85  65  85  68 /  60  10   0  -   30
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  79  60  83  65 /  70  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             63  83  62  85  66 /  80  10   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  80  61  83  64 /  80  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  82  63  85  66 /  80  30   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  81  63  84  66 /  60  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  81  63  84  67 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...BMW
Short-Term/Long-Term...Zeitler
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-040845-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe storms for most of South-Central
Texas today into tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the
main threats, however, isolated tornadoes are possible. Locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches could lead to minor
flooding, especially across areas that have received heavy rains
recently.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1036 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     HAIL             7 NNE HALLETTSVILLE     29.55N 96.91W
05/03/2019  E1.25 INCH       LAVACA             TX   PUBLIC

            OWNER OF A FARM ALONG HWY 77 REPORTED HAIL
            BIGGER THAN QUARTERS NORTH OF HALLETTSVILLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1234 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     HAIL             7 NNE HALLETTSVILLE     29.55N 96.91W
05/03/2019  E1.25 INCH       LAVACA             TX   PUBLIC

            OWNER OF A FARM ALONG HWY 77 REPORTED HAIL
            BIGGER THAN QUARTERS NORTH OF HALLETTSVILLE.

0950 AM     HAIL             7 NNE HALLETTSVILLE     29.54N 96.91W
05/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       LAVACA             TX   PUBLIC

            OWNER OF CURTS CARPETING AND DESIGN CENTER
            NORTH OF HALLETTSVILLE REPORTED QUARTER SIZE
            HAIL AT HER HOME, 2 MILES NORTH OF THEIR
            BUSINESS.

0949 AM     HAIL             1 NNW HALLETTSVILLE     29.46N 96.95W
05/03/2019  E0.75 INCH       LAVACA             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RECEIVED REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL JUST
            NORTH OF HALLETTSVILLE. HEAVIER STORM CORE
            PASSED NORTH OF THIS LOCATION.

0907 AM     TORNADO          5 WNW LA GRANGE         29.92N 96.95W
05/03/2019                   FAYETTE            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE INDUSTRIAL
            BUILDINGS ALONG HWY 71.

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE MULDOON            29.85N 97.04W
05/03/2019  M2.70 INCH       FAYETTE            TX   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MLDT2 BUCKNERS CREEK NEAR
            MULDOON REPORTED 2.70 INCHES IN 1 HOUR.

0820 AM     TORNADO          6 ENE FLATONIA          29.73N 97.01W
05/03/2019                   FAYETTE            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONFIRMED VIA FAYETTE COUNTY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT. REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

1025 PM     HAIL             1 SSW ROUGH CANYON RECR 29.56N 100.98W
05/02/2019  E2.75 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED USING RADAR.

1024 PM     HAIL             3 WSW ROUGH CANYON RECR 29.56N 101.03W
05/02/2019  E2.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

0920 PM     TORNADO          9 NE COMSTOCK           29.79N 101.09W
05/02/2019                   VAL VERDE          TX   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO
            APPROXIMATELY 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMSTOCK.

0656 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW FREDERICKSBURG    30.19N 99.00W
05/02/2019                   GILLESPIE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OCCURRING ON SH16 SOUTHWEST OF
            FREDERICKSBURG.

0654 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FREDERICKSBURG          30.27N 98.87W
05/02/2019                   GILLESPIE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED IN
            FREDERICKSBURG.

&&

CVP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ183-032115-
Val Verde TX-
312 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Comstock, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comstock, Loma Alta, Devils River State Natural Area Del Norte,
Pafford Crossing, Vinegarone and State Highway 163 and U.S. Highway
277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 10120 2983 10123 3013 10072 2961 10071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 260DEG 17KT 2976 10113

PLATT