Tornado Warning 14, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
630 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA are pushing east of I-35 where have lingered mention until
13Z or 14Z. Otherwise, MVFR CIGs prevail this morning into afternoon.
CIGs rise to VFR this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA redevelop this afternoon
ahead of another upper level disturbance and have maintained mention
of VCTS. The SHRA/TSRA move east across our area this evening into
overnight, then move off to the east on Saturday. Winds will
generally be 10 KTs, however gusts up to 50 KTs are possible in and
near TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

UPDATE...
We have allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Kinney, Maverick,
Zavala, and Dimmit Counties to expire. The storms left in our CWA are
moving into an airmass that is not favorable for severe development.
Moderate to heavy rain will continue in some storms for the next
several hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a trough over the western half
of the country with westerly flow over Texas. At the surface, there
was a series of outflow boundaries around our CWA. Winds were
generally from the east-northeast. These winds and outflows have
brought drier, cooler air with dewpoint temperatures and temperatures
10 to 15 degrees lower than 24 hours ago. The initial problem for
this period will be what happens to the storms in the western part of
our area. Short term models show a line developing as they progress
east- southeastward reaching the San Antonio area by the start of
this period. With the drier boundary layer air the severe threat
looks to be lower, but we could see gusty winds and brief heavy rain.
Winds will become southerly to southeasterly by noon and this will
moisten the boundary layer. Another upper level shortwave trough will
move across the region and kick off another round of showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The left over outflow
boundaries will be the focus for convective initiation this
afternoon. The moistening of the airmass and mid-level cooling will
lead to SBCAPE around 2000 j/kg. Vertical wind shear will be modest
at 30-40 kts. With this combination SPC has most of our CWA in the
Slight Risk area today. Large hail and damaging straight line winds
will be the main threat, but storms could interact with the surface
boundaries producing isolated tornadoes. Strong to severe storms will
continue into the evening with conditions remaining favorable.
Rainfall with storms will be up to 1-2 inches. Storms should wane
overnight. Saturday the shortwave will move away to the east. There
could be some showers and thunderstorms in its wake over the eastern
part of the CWA early. We should see clearing across the entire air
by afternoon.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
A weak upper level ridge will build over the region Saturday night
keeping dry weather in place through the day Sunday. The next upper
level shortwave trough will move into the picture Sunday night
starting the next active period. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible starting out west Sunday night and spreading to the east
Monday. Monday night the shortwave will move away to the east taking
convection with it. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to
east through the night and into Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday
the next longwave trough will move into the southwest turning the
upper flow to the southwest and bringing another shortwave across the
region. This will mean another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  63  82  62  84 /  90  60  20   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  63  82  61  84 /  90  60  30   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  63  82  62  84 /  80  70  20   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  60  78  60  82 /  90  60  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  64  86  66  87 /  70  40  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  62  80  61  83 /  90  60  20   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             79  62  85  63  87 /  70  60  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        78  62  82  61  84 /  80  60  20   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79  66  84  63  87 /  90  70  30   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  64  82  63  85 /  80  70  20   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78  65  82  64  85 /  70  70  20   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-040845-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
343 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe storms for most of South-Central
Texas today into tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the
main threats, however, isolated tornadoes are possible. Locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches could lead to minor
flooding, especially across areas that have received heavy rains
recently.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
745 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ224-031345-
De Witt TX-
745 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY UNTIL 845
AM CDT...

At 745 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yorktown, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cuero and Gruenau.

LAT...LON 2900 9759 2911 9761 2918 9725 2900 9724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1245Z 261DEG 13KT 2906 9751

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
808 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ209-223>225-031415-
Lavaca TX-De Witt TX-Fayette TX-Gonzales TX-
808 AM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DEWITT...
NORTHEASTERN GONZALES...FAYETTE AND NORTHWESTERN LAVACA COUNTIES
UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 808 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Moulton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Schulenburg, Shiner, Flatonia, Moulton, Waelder, Muldoon,
Cistern, Hochheim, Komensky, Swiss Alp, Henkhaus, Dubina, Engle,
Dilworth, Plum, Ammannsville, Thompsonville, Mullins Prairie and
Freyburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2980 9671 2925 9733 2975 9739 2978 9732
      2993 9716 3004 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 215DEG 21KT 2953 9724

BMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
906 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TORNADO          6 ENE FLATONIA          29.73N 97.01W
05/03/2019                   FAYETTE            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONFIRMED VIA FAYETTE COUNTY LAW
            ENFORCEMENT. REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

&&