Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

328 
WWUS54 KEWX 030417
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1117 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXC271-465-030500-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-190503T0500Z/
Kinney TX-Val Verde TX-
1117 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN KINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES...

At 1117 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Val Verde
Park, or near Del Rio, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Del Rio, Standart, Cienegas Terrace, Amanda, Laughlin AFB and Val
Verde Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2927 10052 2913 10073 2917 10078 2920 10077
      2926 10081 2928 10087 2931 10089 2933 10094
      2935 10095 2936 10100 2957 10080
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 324DEG 14KT 2937 10083 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAMPSHIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
859 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

.UPDATE...
Earlier convection across Central Texas and the Hill Country has
shifted east, leaving a swath of 1 to over 3 inches of rain across
Gillespie County in its wake. Farther west, strong to severe
thunderstorms were developing along a remnant outflow boundary
stretching from Fort Stockton to Rocksprings to Pleasanton. The 00Z
Del Rio sounding sampled the environment ahead of this boundary,
which was characterized by over 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE, over
30 knots of effective bulk shear, with backed winds through the
lowest 7000 feet of the sounding. This means that not only organized
thunderstorms are possible ahead of the boundary, but the instability
present will continue to promote rapid thunderstorm intensification.
Thick mid-level CAPE profiles and mid-level dry air will create a
favorable environment for updraft acceleration and consequently large
hail/damaging winds, with the backed winds creating at least a
transient tornado threat within the vicinity of the outflow boundary.
High resolution guidance has struggled to capture the evolution of
events today and primarily relying on short term extrapolation of
trends for the forecast through the remainder of the evening hours.
Expect nocturnal stabilization should allow for activity along the
Rio Grande to wane with a break in rain possible for a few hours this
evening. A developing 20-25 knot low level jet overnight should
allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to redevelop
across the region after midnight into the pre-dawn hours.

Updated grids to account for temperature and radar trends behind the
outflow boundary as well as made minor grid updates for the issuance
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/high end IFR overnight as a
low level jet strengthens across South Central Texas. Most convection
has remained outside of the terminals tonight but will continue to
monitor and amend should TSRA look to impact a terminal, especially
with a secondary round developing near DRT early this evening. An
outflow boundary moving across SAT/SSF will allow for a north to
northeast wind to prevail at AUS and the San Antonio terminals early
in the TAF period with winds veering to the east/southeast as the
boundary moves farther away from the terminals. Expect east to
southeast winds to prevail through the remainder of the period in the
5-10 knot range.

Confidence is low in the TAF beyond the first 6 hours as disturbances
moving across the region in the west/southwest flow aloft and the
presence of leftover boundaries from rain tonight will ultimately
affect SHRA/TSRA development during the day Friday. Have included a
VCTS for anticipated peak heating but adjustments in timing are
expected in future issuances.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A fairly complex forecast is in store for this afternoon and evening
across south central Texas. Current radar data shows a slow weakening
trend in the supercell along the Sutton and Edwards county line.
However, we are seeing some clearing of skies farther south and west
along the Rio Grande and even as far west as eastern Brewster county
in the lower Trans Pecos region. For the remainder of this afternoon
into the early evening hours, areas along the Rio Grande and nearby
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country
will remain favored for additional shower and thunderstorm
development. SPC mesoscale analysis products show the atmosphere is
uncapped with MLCAPEs in the 3000-3500 J/kg range along the Rio
Grande. The cap has also eroded and with additional daytime heating,
this area will be favored for additional strong to severe
thunderstorms. Farther east across the remainder of the Hill country
and into the I-35 corridor, persistent cloud cover and cooler
temperatures should keep convective development limited to mainly
isolated to scattered. However, should the area of thunderstorms
across the Rio Grande get organized, we could see convection trend
upward across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor this evening.
Finally, across the coastal plains we have seen more sunshine and
could see at least some scattered strong convection this afternoon
and evening. The main severe weather concerns today will be large
hail and damaging winds. However, locally backed flow in the low-
levels near any boundaries could produce a brief tornado threat. The
other concern will be for locally heavy rainfall as we have a very
moist airmass in place across the region. Some of the initial storms
will be slow moving and capable of producing rainfall rates up to 2
inches/hour.

We should see the threat for severe weather decrease by late evening
as we loose daytime heating. However, we do still have plenty of
moisture in place and active flow aloft, so shower and thunderstorm
chances will remain in the forecast through tonight.

The weather on Friday will largely depend on what transpires this
evening and overnight. As of now, we will keep fairly high rain
chances in the forecast Friday morning, but do not expect favorable
conditions for severe thunderstorms at this time. However, with some
afternoon breaks in the clouds we should be able to destabilize and
we will increase rain chances for all areas. We can't rule out some
severe thunderstorms as well and are under a Slight risk for most of
south central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern
given plenty of moisture, slow moving storms and remnant outflow
boundaries.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Rain chances should temporarily decrease across the area this weekend
as shortwave ridging in the mid-levels moves in from the west. The
pattern will turn active once again early next week as another upper
level trough develops to our west. We will keep fairly high rain
chances in the forecast through at least mid-week. High temperatures
should stay close to normal, with overnight lows likely remaining
above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  78  64  81  62 /  50  90  60  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  66  78  64  81  61 /  40  90  60  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  79  64  81  62 /  40  90  60  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  76  62  77  59 /  60  90  50  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  84  65  86  65 /  50  70  40  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  77  63  79  60 /  60  90  60  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             68  83  64  85  63 /  50  90  50  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        66  78  64  81  61 /  40  90  60  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  81  67  83  64 /  40  80  70  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       68  80  64  82  63 /  40  90  60  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           70  81  65  83  64 /  40  90  60  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
356 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
356 AM CDT Thu May 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe storms for most of South-Central
Texas this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats, but isolated tornadoes will be possible
especially west of I-35. In addition, rainfall amounts could
exceed 2 inches within the stronger thunderstorms which could lead
to minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong storms will remain possible Friday and the entire area is
in a marginal risk for severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ188>190-030000-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Kendall TX-
614 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BLANCO...
SOUTHEASTERN GILLESPIE AND NORTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

At 613 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Luckenbach, or 15 miles northeast of Comfort,
moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Luckenbach, Cain City, Old Tunnel State Park, Rocky Hill,
LBJ State Park, Bankersmith, Sisterdale, Kreutzberg, Hye, Blumenthal,
Albert, Grapetown, Waring, LBJ National Historical Park and Crown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3002 9887 3032 9881 3022 9845 2984 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 290DEG 31KT 3009 9869

YB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
655 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FREDERICKSBURG          30.27N 98.87W
05/02/2019                   GILLESPIE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED IN
            FREDERICKSBURG.

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
657 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW FREDERICKSBURG    30.19N 99.00W
05/02/2019                   GILLESPIE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OCCURRING ON SH16 SOUTHWEST OF
            FREDERICKSBURG.

&&

CVP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
712 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

TXZ183-030100-
Val Verde TX-
712 PM CDT Thu May 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Juno, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Juno.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2996 10125 3006 10135 3024 10118 3007 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 228DEG 8KT 3007 10124

YB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
929 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TORNADO          9 NE COMSTOCK           29.79N 101.09W
05/02/2019                   VAL VERDE          TX   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO
            APPROXIMATELY 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF COMSTOCK.

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1045 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     HAIL             3 WSW ROUGH CANYON RECR 29.56N 101.03W
05/02/2019  E2.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

&&

CVP