Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

107 
WWUS54 KEWX 032238
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
538 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXC031-032300-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-190503T2300Z/
Blanco TX-
538 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL BLANCO COUNTY...

At 538 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Blanco, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Blanco and Pedernales Falls State Park. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9820 3014 9826 3008 9843 3022 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 256DEG 15KT 3018 9840 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

.UPDATE...
Quick update for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 127 that has been issued
for the entire South Central Texas area. Strong to Severe
thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Edwards Plateau in
Northern Val Verde County and across Northern Kendall/SE Gillespie
Counties. This activity will gradually move east and southeast
through the evening and into the overnight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
We'll take "All Scales of Motion" for $500 today across South
Central Texas. Fortunately, the variety of forcings from local and
low (boundaries) to region-wide and high (shortwave trough and jet
streak exit region) have dissipated into the background regime or are
consistent enough to settle into a climatologically-favorable
morphology for this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The 12Z
NAM/GFS/ECMWF and more recent TTech WRF/HRRR/HREF runs are in general
agreement with that evolution, from isolated to scattered storms
moving from West Texas and Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon, to an eventual merging of cold pools and an MCS rolling
though the southeastern 1/2 of the area. Some supercells are
possible through early evening before the cold pools merge.

The greatest severe threat will be damaging wind, with lesser threat
of large hail and a very small chance for a tornado or two. The
prime severe threat area will be near supercells along the Rio Grande
through about 7-8 pm, then transitioning to along and east of I-35 by
10-11 pm. Of special concern area is along and south of U.S. 90 from
Uvalde to San Antonio to Gonzales, where the models indicate the
highest damaging wind threat. Rainfall amounts will be spotty in the
west, from 1/10 inch up to one inch. Locations in the middle should
see 1/4 to one inch, and locations along and east of I-35 1 to 2
inches. A few spots east of I-35 may see up to 4 inches. Some minor
flash flooding is possible due to the rain/runoff from storms earlier
today, in addition to the storms expected tonight.

The good news is the shortwave trough will move east and a rapid
clearing/drying trend from west to east will occur on Saturday. Rain
should be over by midday except for all but the far eastern coastal
plains, and rain should end there by mid-afternoon. Some fog is
likely late Saturday night along and east of I-35, but that will be
addressed by later forecasts when the clearing trend and near-ground
wetness after the rain are more evident.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Sunday is the day for outdoor activity for the next week, with low-
amplitude ridging is over the area. Temperatures will be seasonal and
relative humidity fairly low after daytime heating dissipates
morning fog.

The longwave pattern will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms and heavy rain as next week progresses, with a large and
digging western U.S. trough, and a strengthening Jet Stream across
northern Mexico and into Texas. Shortwave troughs will eject out of
the longwave trough every 24-36 hours to provide the primary lift. At
this time, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday appear to be the days with
the best chances for rain. The chances for severe storms will
increase for Wednesday and Friday as the shortwave troughs are deeper
and the boundary layer has more time to moisten and increase
instability. Friday is of the highest concern, as a cold front
appears to stall from west to east across our area. Diffluent
1000-500 mb thickness over our area points to slow-moving, stalling,
or possibly even back-building convection. Combined with echo
training along the front, that is a recipe for very heavy rain and
significant flash and river flooding. While at this forecast range
details are variable and fuzzy, pay attention to the how the forecast
evolves through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  80  62  83  66 /  70  20   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  80  61  83  64 /  70  20   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     64  80  61  83  64 /  80  20   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  78  60  81  64 /  60  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  85  65  85  68 /  60  10   0  -   30
Georgetown Muni Airport        63  79  60  83  65 /  70  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             63  83  62  85  66 /  80  10   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  80  61  83  64 /  80  20   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  82  63  85  66 /  80  30   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  81  63  84  66 /  60  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  81  63  84  67 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...Huffman
Short-Term/Long-Term...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-042145-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
440 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for the entire South
Central Texas area through 11 pm tonight. There is a slight risk
of severe storms for most of South- Central Texas today into
tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats,
however, isolated tornadoes are possible. Locally heavy rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches could lead to minor flooding, especially
across areas that have received heavy rains recently.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ183-032115-
Val Verde TX-
312 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Comstock, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comstock, Loma Alta, Devils River State Natural Area Del Norte,
Pafford Crossing, Vinegarone and State Highway 163 and U.S. Highway
277.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2966 10120 2983 10123 3013 10072 2961 10071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 260DEG 17KT 2976 10113

PLATT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
414 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ218-228-032200-
Dimmit TX-Zavala TX-
414 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DIMMIT AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 412 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Winter Haven, or near Carrizo Springs, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrizo Springs, Chula Vista-River Spur, Brundage, Winter Haven,
Las Colonias and Farm to Market Road 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2849 9978 2856 9990 2881 9972 2862 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 224DEG 17KT 2858 9979

PLATT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
421 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ183-032200-
Val Verde TX-
421 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 419 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Pandale. Another strong thunderstorm was located
8 miles west of Juno. Both of these storms are moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Juno and State Highway 163.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10086 3015 10086 3003 10139 3029 10149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 268DEG 25KT 3028 10134

PLATT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
430 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ184-032215-
Edwards TX-
430 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles east of Carta Valley, or 19 miles east of Loma Alta, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings, Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area and Farm to Market
Road 674.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 10006 2989 10001 2989 10002 2985 10002
      2985 10003 2980 10001 2979 10003 2976 10003
      2971 10052 2989 10058
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 253DEG 21KT 2983 10047

PLATT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
506 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HAIL             3 NE JUNO               30.18N 101.09W
05/03/2019  E1.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

            VIDEO AND PICTURE OF HAIL, AT LEAST QUARTER
            SIZE, POSTED ON TWITTER.

&&

AAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
510 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

TXZ173-192-032245-
Williamson TX-Travis TX-
510 PM CDT Fri May 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manor, or near Pflugerville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Pflugerville, Windemere, Hutto, Manor, Coupland,
Rices Crossing and Wells Branch.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3029 9746 3032 9774 3057 9761 3052 9735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 211DEG 12KT 3035 9763

RUNYEN