Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MVFR cigs/vsbys are ongoing at KSAT and KSSF. These conditions are
forecast for KAUS to start between 06Z and 07Z tonight. Around 08Z
and 09Z, terminals along the I-35 corridor are forecast to drop to
IFR category to about 11Z. A complex of strong storms is forecast to
move from southwest to northeast of the area Sunday morning between
1130Z and 14Z. There is moderate to high confidence of this complex
of storms to develop overnight and then track northeast across our
area Sunday morning with all of HiRes models picking it up. Lingering
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the area
Sunday afternoon as the storm complex moves to the northeast and exit
the area late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday evening. VFR conditions
are possible to return along the I-35 terminals between 14Z and 18Z
Sunday. VFR conditions are forecast for KDRT for the entire forecast
period. Light and variable winds are anticipated through the period
with an east to southeast component for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

AVIATION...
While a few showers remain south of AUS the bulk of the convection
has moved away from the terminals. This will be the trend through the
evening hours with dry weather expected through 09z along the Rio
Grande and 11z along the I-35 corridor. VFR conditions now will
drop overnight for the I-35 terminals through MVFR to IFR by 07z.
These lower cigs will hang around until the morning round of rain
moves through.

As the main upper trough moves east across Texas another complex of
showers and storms will form late tonight across the Rio Grande
Plains. High resolution models show the complex moving eastward just
south of DRT so have included only VCSH beginning around 09z there.
The complex of showers and storms will approach the I-35 terminals by
11z with a mix of -SHRA and VCTS. While the focus should be moderate
to heavy rainfall a few isolated thunderstorms are possible, so VCTS
was used rather than prevailing TS at this point. The complex of
showers and storms, along with any wrap around precipitation will
move to the east by 15z at DRT and the I-35 terminals by 22z. VFR and
dry conditions will prevail after that with northeast winds less than
10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

UPDATE...
We have allowed the Tornado Watch to expire at 6 PM. An outflow
boundary has pushed east into portions of Fayette, eastern Bastrop
and southern Caldwell counties. The main threat with the remaining
isolated storms west of the outflow boundary will be small hail
through sunset. Re-trended PoPs and temps through the evening hours,
with coverage of convective activity expected to remain isolated.

No changes made to the PoPs and Wx overnight and into Sunday
morning, with the previous forecast package indicating the potential
of an organized complex of storms coming out of Mexico and across
portions of the CWA. We will leave the Flash Flood Watch intact for
the potential of flooding with this second round of storms Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
There remains a small threat for severe weather and tornadoes with no
significant improvements in the near storm airmass until the watch is
set to expire at 6 pm. Some clearing of counties may need to be
considered from the west in the next hour or two however. A tornado
has not be detected or reported in our forecast area today, but a
radar confirmed tornado was noted just north of Williamson County
earlier this afternoon.

A convergent pattern of a lifting warm front over eastern counties
and a re-firing of thunderstorms along an eastward-propagating
outflow boundary from western counties has resulted in locally heavy
downpours of 2 to 4.5 inches over a small area of the eastern Hill
Country and the eastern halves of Travis and Williamson counties.
While much of the area is still waiting on the much anticipated rain
pattern, the areas noted above have already become saturated to the
point of resulting in some significant street flooding and some
waters rising over some low water crossings. Overall, impacts have
been spotty as has been the rains, However, the area between Johnson
City and Taylor extending south to near San Marcos is expected to see
another 1 to 3 inches of rain based on a good portion of the higher
resolution model data for late tonight into midday Sunday.

A few areas south of the FF watch area could see an isolated 4 inch
amounts, but very little rainfall has accumulated thus far outside
of the watch area. With a 90 knot upper jet streak currently diving
south along the Pacific coast of Mexico, the model run to run trends
are deeper and slower with the upper low, which should extend the
residence time of the next round of heavy rains. Much of the HRRR
runs today have shown good consistency on timing and location of
what looks to be a more widespread mcs, which should cover 80 percent
of the forecast area, with only areas NW of a Del Rio to Mountain
Home line possibly missing out on measurable rains. The axis of
heaviest rains with the next system should impact the San Antonio
area from 6 am to 11 am and the Austin area from 7 am to 1 pm. This
heavy rain axis should be along a N-S axis near Hwy 77 by 1 pm with
decreasing chances of run-off producing rains in the early afternoon.
However, the cumulative rains over the Austin metro area could lead
to lingering flood impacts through as late as 3 pm. Additional rain
chances are indicated into Sunday evening, but this should be mostly
spotty rains associated with the elevated rap- around lifting
processes from the middle and upper levels. Further wobbling and
deepening of the upper low could lead to rain chances running into
Monday morning, but these wrap-around rains should be much lighter or
on the order of 1/4 inch or less.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The deeper trough moving over us this weekend will leave a dry regime
and light northerly flow to promote good warming under sunny skies
for Monday. Areas that have received over an inch of rain are likely
to feel some of the effects of Monday afternoon humidities as the
north winds are mostly expected to be less than 10 mph in the
afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light Monday night, but will
not factor in any chances for ground fog until we the rainfall totals
for tonight into Sunday. Sunny and hot conditions develop under
shortwave ridging aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. A few patches of
brief morning clouds may develop Thursday morning with another
mostly sunny and warm day forecast Thursday afternoon when vigorous
upper low passes well to the north of the area. Later forecasts may
need to consider warmer temperatures for Thursday afternoon as
westerly mixing of winds aloft could be a factor. As that upper low
ejects NEwd, another strong low digs into the SWrn US and brings
possibly another good chance of rain for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              59  83  59  89  63 /  20  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  83  58  88  62 /  20  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  84  58  88  61 /  10  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            57  81  57  87  63 /  20  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  88  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  82  57  88  63 /  30  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  86  59  90  62 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        58  83  58  88  61 /  20  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  82  57  86  62 /  40  20   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       58  85  60  88  62 /  10  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           58  85  60  89  62 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Bastrop-Blanco-
Caldwell-Hays-Lee-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-080000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
overnight and into Sunday morning from west to east. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible, with hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across
portions of South Central Texas from west to east on Sunday. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with hail and damaging wind
gusts. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop, Blanco,
Caldwell, Hays, Lee, Travis, and Williamson counties. Heavy rains
that occurred Saturday could combine with an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain expected Sunday and lead to a flash flood threat.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1109 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             7 ENE DALE              29.96N 97.45W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       BASTROP            TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN RED ROCK NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF FM 812 AND HWY 20.

&&

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HAIL             2 WNW BUESCHER STATE PA 30.05N 97.20W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       BASTROP            TX   STORM CHASER

            REPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK AND VIA A HAM
            OPERATOR OF 1 INCH HAIL JUST TO THE NW OF
            SMITHVILLE.

&&

AAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1210 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXZ208-070545-
Caldwell TX-
1210 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1210 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lockhart, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lockhart, Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Lytton Springs, Dale, St
John Colony, Maxwell, Mendoza and Taylorsville.

LAT...LON 2977 9771 2991 9784 2994 9781 2995 9779
      2999 9775 3007 9765 2991 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 230DEG 20KT 2989 9771

RUNYEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1221 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HAIL             1 SSW GIDDINGS          30.17N 96.94W
04/07/2019  E0.75 INCH       LEE                TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE LEE
            COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE JUST SOUTH OF
            GIDDINGS.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
319 AM CDT SUN APR 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAGLE PASS              28.71N 100.50W
04/07/2019                   MAVERICK           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FIRST REPORT OF DOWNED POWER LINES IN EAGLE
            PASS VIA SCANNER TRAFFIC. THEY ARE STARTING
            TO CHECK TOWN FOR DAMAGE AND/OR FLOODING
            ISSUES.

&&

OB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXZ217-218-228-070945-
Maverick TX-Dimmit TX-Zavala TX-
338 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAVERICK...DIMMIT
AND ZAVALA COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 337 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles north of Cometa to near Gilson Groves.
Movement was east northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Crystal City, Carrizo Springs, Big Wells, La Pryor, Batesville,
Asherton, Chula Vista-River Spur, Washer, Las Colonias, Winter Haven,
Cometa, Brundage, Chaparral Wildlife Management Area, Light, Carrizo
Hill, Loma Vista, Gilson Groves, Catarina, Las Vegas and Farias Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2884 10037 2885 10017 2908 9999 2909 9941
      2821 9940 2820 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0837Z 256DEG 37KT 2887 10009 2821 9981

BMW