Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.AVIATION...
While a few showers remain south of AUS the bulk of the convection
has moved away from the terminals. This will be the trend through the
evening hours with dry weather expected through 09z along the Rio
Grande and 11z along the I-35 corridor. VFR conditions now will
drop overnight for the I-35 terminals through MVFR to IFR by 07z.
These lower cigs will hang around until the morning round of rain
moves through.

As the main upper trough moves east across Texas another complex of
showers and storms will form late tonight across the Rio Grande
Plains. High resolution models show the complex moving eastward just
south of DRT so have included only VCSH beginning around 09z there.
The complex of showers and storms will approach the I-35 terminals by
11z with a mix of -SHRA and VCTS. While the focus should be moderate
to heavy rainfall a few isolated thunderstorms are possible, so VCTS
was used rather than prevailing TS at this point. The complex of
showers and storms, along with any wrap around precipitation will
move to the east by 15z at DRT and the I-35 terminals by 22z. VFR and
dry conditions will prevail after that with northeast winds less than
10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

UPDATE...
We have allowed the Tornado Watch to expire at 6 PM. An outflow
boundary has pushed east into portions of Fayette, eastern Bastrop
and southern Caldwell counties. The main threat with the remaining
isolated storms west of the outflow boundary will be small hail
through sunset. Re-trended PoPs and temps through the evening hours,
with coverage of convective activity expected to remain isolated.

No changes made to the PoPs and Wx overnight and into Sunday
morning, with the previous forecast package indicating the potential
of an organized complex of storms coming out of Mexico and across
portions of the CWA. We will leave the Flash Flood Watch intact for
the potential of flooding with this second round of storms Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
There remains a small threat for severe weather and tornadoes with no
significant improvements in the near storm airmass until the watch is
set to expire at 6 pm. Some clearing of counties may need to be
considered from the west in the next hour or two however. A tornado
has not be detected or reported in our forecast area today, but a
radar confirmed tornado was noted just north of Williamson County
earlier this afternoon.

A convergent pattern of a lifting warm front over eastern counties
and a re-firing of thunderstorms along an eastward-propagating
outflow boundary from western counties has resulted in locally heavy
downpours of 2 to 4.5 inches over a small area of the eastern Hill
Country and the eastern halves of Travis and Williamson counties.
While much of the area is still waiting on the much anticipated rain
pattern, the areas noted above have already become saturated to the
point of resulting in some significant street flooding and some
waters rising over some low water crossings. Overall, impacts have
been spotty as has been the rains, However, the area between Johnson
City and Taylor extending south to near San Marcos is expected to see
another 1 to 3 inches of rain based on a good portion of the higher
resolution model data for late tonight into midday Sunday.

A few areas south of the FF watch area could see an isolated 4 inch
amounts, but very little rainfall has accumulated thus far outside
of the watch area. With a 90 knot upper jet streak currently diving
south along the Pacific coast of Mexico, the model run to run trends
are deeper and slower with the upper low, which should extend the
residence time of the next round of heavy rains. Much of the HRRR
runs today have shown good consistency on timing and location of
what looks to be a more widespread mcs, which should cover 80 percent
of the forecast area, with only areas NW of a Del Rio to Mountain
Home line possibly missing out on measurable rains. The axis of
heaviest rains with the next system should impact the San Antonio
area from 6 am to 11 am and the Austin area from 7 am to 1 pm. This
heavy rain axis should be along a N-S axis near Hwy 77 by 1 pm with
decreasing chances of run-off producing rains in the early afternoon.
However, the cumulative rains over the Austin metro area could lead
to lingering flood impacts through as late as 3 pm. Additional rain
chances are indicated into Sunday evening, but this should be mostly
spotty rains associated with the elevated rap- around lifting
processes from the middle and upper levels. Further wobbling and
deepening of the upper low could lead to rain chances running into
Monday morning, but these wrap-around rains should be much lighter or
on the order of 1/4 inch or less.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The deeper trough moving over us this weekend will leave a dry regime
and light northerly flow to promote good warming under sunny skies
for Monday. Areas that have received over an inch of rain are likely
to feel some of the effects of Monday afternoon humidities as the
north winds are mostly expected to be less than 10 mph in the
afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light Monday night, but will
not factor in any chances for ground fog until we the rainfall totals
for tonight into Sunday. Sunny and hot conditions develop under
shortwave ridging aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. A few patches of
brief morning clouds may develop Thursday morning with another
mostly sunny and warm day forecast Thursday afternoon when vigorous
upper low passes well to the north of the area. Later forecasts may
need to consider warmer temperatures for Thursday afternoon as
westerly mixing of winds aloft could be a factor. As that upper low
ejects NEwd, another strong low digs into the SWrn US and brings
possibly another good chance of rain for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  75  59  83  59 /  40  60  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  74  59  83  58 /  50  70  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  74  57  84  58 /  60  70  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  73  57  81  57 /  30  50  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  84  59  88  61 /  60  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  73  59  82  57 /  30  60  30  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  78  57  86  59 /  80  50  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  75  58  83  58 /  60  70  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  74  60  82  57 /  60  90  40  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  75  58  85  60 /  70  70  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  76  58  85  60 /  80  70  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop-Blanco-
Caldwell-Hays-Lee-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-080000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
overnight and into Sunday morning from west to east. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible, with hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across
portions of South Central Texas from west to east on Sunday. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with hail and damaging wind
gusts. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop, Blanco,
Caldwell, Hays, Lee, Travis, and Williamson counties. Heavy rains
that occurred Saturday could combine with an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain expected Sunday and lead to a flash flood threat.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
532 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ194-062300-
Lee TX-
532 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lexington, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Tanglewood, Old Dime Box, Leo and Lincoln.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3028 9698 3041 9712 3055 9698 3056 9696
      3054 9692 3049 9690 3048 9691 3046 9690
      3046 9688 3043 9687 3043 9685 3040 9681
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 226DEG 34KT 3040 9700

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
611 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ173-192>194-070000-
Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Lee TX-Travis TX-
611 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON...EAST
CENTRAL TRAVIS...NORTH CENTRAL BASTROP AND NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elgin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Elgin, Manor, Thrall, Coupland, Laneport, Hoxie, Beyarsville,
Cedar Hills, Hare, Noack, Sandoval and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9727 3046 9715 3054 9699 3021 9738
      3034 9753 3075 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 208DEG 29KT 3038 9740

AAT

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