Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

262 
WWUS54 KEWX 070515
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXC021-070525-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190407T0545Z/
Bastrop TX-
1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3002 9699 3017 9704 3033 9675 3032 9669
      3027 9667 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674
      3016 9679 3014 9677 3015 9671 3017 9669
      3015 9668 3015 9665 3004 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 251DEG 20KT 3014 9689 

$$

TXC149-287-070545-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190407T0545Z/
Lee TX-Fayette TX-
1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 1215 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Giddings,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Giddings, Round Top, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Carmine,
Serbin, Warda, Northrup, Winedale, Ledbetter, Nechanitz and Waldeck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3002 9699 3017 9704 3033 9675 3032 9669
      3027 9667 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674
      3016 9679 3014 9677 3015 9671 3017 9669
      3015 9668 3015 9665 3004 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 251DEG 20KT 3014 9689 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

503 
WWUS54 KEWX 070526
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXC149-070536-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190407T0545Z/
Fayette TX-
1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674 3012 9685
      3021 9691 3033 9675 3032 9674 3033 9673
      3032 9671 3032 9669 3027 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 242DEG 22KT 3018 9682 

$$

TXC287-070545-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190407T0545Z/
Lee TX-
1226 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY...

At 1226 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Giddings, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674 3012 9685
      3021 9691 3033 9675 3032 9674 3033 9673
      3032 9671 3032 9669 3027 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 242DEG 22KT 3018 9682 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

RUNYEN

987 
WWUS54 KEWX 070532
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

TXC287-070542-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-190407T0545Z/
Lee TX-
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3025 9669 3024 9674 3020 9674 3012 9685
      3021 9691 3033 9675 3032 9674 3033 9673
      3032 9671 3032 9669 3027 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 251DEG 20KT 3019 9678 

$$

RUNYEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.AVIATION...
While a few showers remain south of AUS the bulk of the convection
has moved away from the terminals. This will be the trend through the
evening hours with dry weather expected through 09z along the Rio
Grande and 11z along the I-35 corridor. VFR conditions now will
drop overnight for the I-35 terminals through MVFR to IFR by 07z.
These lower cigs will hang around until the morning round of rain
moves through.

As the main upper trough moves east across Texas another complex of
showers and storms will form late tonight across the Rio Grande
Plains. High resolution models show the complex moving eastward just
south of DRT so have included only VCSH beginning around 09z there.
The complex of showers and storms will approach the I-35 terminals by
11z with a mix of -SHRA and VCTS. While the focus should be moderate
to heavy rainfall a few isolated thunderstorms are possible, so VCTS
was used rather than prevailing TS at this point. The complex of
showers and storms, along with any wrap around precipitation will
move to the east by 15z at DRT and the I-35 terminals by 22z. VFR and
dry conditions will prevail after that with northeast winds less than
10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

UPDATE...
We have allowed the Tornado Watch to expire at 6 PM. An outflow
boundary has pushed east into portions of Fayette, eastern Bastrop
and southern Caldwell counties. The main threat with the remaining
isolated storms west of the outflow boundary will be small hail
through sunset. Re-trended PoPs and temps through the evening hours,
with coverage of convective activity expected to remain isolated.

No changes made to the PoPs and Wx overnight and into Sunday
morning, with the previous forecast package indicating the potential
of an organized complex of storms coming out of Mexico and across
portions of the CWA. We will leave the Flash Flood Watch intact for
the potential of flooding with this second round of storms Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
There remains a small threat for severe weather and tornadoes with no
significant improvements in the near storm airmass until the watch is
set to expire at 6 pm. Some clearing of counties may need to be
considered from the west in the next hour or two however. A tornado
has not be detected or reported in our forecast area today, but a
radar confirmed tornado was noted just north of Williamson County
earlier this afternoon.

A convergent pattern of a lifting warm front over eastern counties
and a re-firing of thunderstorms along an eastward-propagating
outflow boundary from western counties has resulted in locally heavy
downpours of 2 to 4.5 inches over a small area of the eastern Hill
Country and the eastern halves of Travis and Williamson counties.
While much of the area is still waiting on the much anticipated rain
pattern, the areas noted above have already become saturated to the
point of resulting in some significant street flooding and some
waters rising over some low water crossings. Overall, impacts have
been spotty as has been the rains, However, the area between Johnson
City and Taylor extending south to near San Marcos is expected to see
another 1 to 3 inches of rain based on a good portion of the higher
resolution model data for late tonight into midday Sunday.

A few areas south of the FF watch area could see an isolated 4 inch
amounts, but very little rainfall has accumulated thus far outside
of the watch area. With a 90 knot upper jet streak currently diving
south along the Pacific coast of Mexico, the model run to run trends
are deeper and slower with the upper low, which should extend the
residence time of the next round of heavy rains. Much of the HRRR
runs today have shown good consistency on timing and location of
what looks to be a more widespread mcs, which should cover 80 percent
of the forecast area, with only areas NW of a Del Rio to Mountain
Home line possibly missing out on measurable rains. The axis of
heaviest rains with the next system should impact the San Antonio
area from 6 am to 11 am and the Austin area from 7 am to 1 pm. This
heavy rain axis should be along a N-S axis near Hwy 77 by 1 pm with
decreasing chances of run-off producing rains in the early afternoon.
However, the cumulative rains over the Austin metro area could lead
to lingering flood impacts through as late as 3 pm. Additional rain
chances are indicated into Sunday evening, but this should be mostly
spotty rains associated with the elevated rap- around lifting
processes from the middle and upper levels. Further wobbling and
deepening of the upper low could lead to rain chances running into
Monday morning, but these wrap-around rains should be much lighter or
on the order of 1/4 inch or less.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The deeper trough moving over us this weekend will leave a dry regime
and light northerly flow to promote good warming under sunny skies
for Monday. Areas that have received over an inch of rain are likely
to feel some of the effects of Monday afternoon humidities as the
north winds are mostly expected to be less than 10 mph in the
afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light Monday night, but will
not factor in any chances for ground fog until we the rainfall totals
for tonight into Sunday. Sunny and hot conditions develop under
shortwave ridging aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. A few patches of
brief morning clouds may develop Thursday morning with another
mostly sunny and warm day forecast Thursday afternoon when vigorous
upper low passes well to the north of the area. Later forecasts may
need to consider warmer temperatures for Thursday afternoon as
westerly mixing of winds aloft could be a factor. As that upper low
ejects NEwd, another strong low digs into the SWrn US and brings
possibly another good chance of rain for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  75  59  83  59 /  40  60  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  74  59  83  58 /  50  70  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  74  57  84  58 /  60  70  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  73  57  81  57 /  30  50  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  84  59  88  61 /  60  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  73  59  82  57 /  30  60  30  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  78  57  86  59 /  80  50  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  75  58  83  58 /  60  70  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  74  60  82  57 /  60  90  40  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  75  58  85  60 /  70  70  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  76  58  85  60 /  80  70  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop-Blanco-
Caldwell-Hays-Lee-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-080000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
overnight and into Sunday morning from west to east. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible, with hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across
portions of South Central Texas from west to east on Sunday. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with hail and damaging wind
gusts. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop, Blanco,
Caldwell, Hays, Lee, Travis, and Williamson counties. Heavy rains
that occurred Saturday could combine with an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain expected Sunday and lead to a flash flood threat.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
937 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             UHLAND                  29.96N 97.78W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
939 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             1 SE SAN MARCOS         29.87N 97.93W
04/06/2019  E1.50 INCH       HAYS               TX   PUBLIC

            PING PONG SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR RIVER
            ROAD AND STURGEON DRIVE.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
951 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     HAIL             5 N LOCKHART            29.95N 97.67W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

JR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1001 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ191-070400-
Hays TX-
1001 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY UNTIL 1100 PM
CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wimberley, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Wimberley, Uhland, Niederwald, Bear Creek,
Mountain City, Hays and Hays City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 9794 3006 9776 2994 9780 2992 9785
      2988 9790 2994 9811 3020 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 228DEG 15KT 2997 9802

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1109 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             7 ENE DALE              29.96N 97.45W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       BASTROP            TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN RED ROCK NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF FM 812 AND HWY 20.

&&

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HAIL             2 WNW BUESCHER STATE PA 30.05N 97.20W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       BASTROP            TX   STORM CHASER

            REPORT VIA SPOTTER NETWORK AND VIA A HAM
            OPERATOR OF 1 INCH HAIL JUST TO THE NW OF
            SMITHVILLE.

&&

AAT