Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

289 
WWUS54 KEWX 070211
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
911 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXC055-091-187-209-070300-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190407T0300Z/
Caldwell TX-Hays TX-Guadalupe TX-Comal TX-
911 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN HAYS...NORTHERN GUADALUPE
AND EAST CENTRAL COMAL COUNTIES...

At 911 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kyle, moving 
northeast at 15 mph. Several reports of quarter to half dollar sized 
hail have come in from around the San Marcos area. 

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Lockhart, Wimberley, Canyon Lake, Martindale,
Uhland, Mustang Ridge, Niederwald, Zorn, Mountain City, Hays, Hunter,
San Marcos Regional Airport, Maxwell, Reedville, Redwood, Hays City
and Mendoza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9791 3002 9771 3003 9770 2995 9759
      2975 9794 2980 9804 2988 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 0211Z 242DEG 12KT 2993 9788 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AAT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.AVIATION...
While a few showers remain south of AUS the bulk of the convection
has moved away from the terminals. This will be the trend through the
evening hours with dry weather expected through 09z along the Rio
Grande and 11z along the I-35 corridor. VFR conditions now will
drop overnight for the I-35 terminals through MVFR to IFR by 07z.
These lower cigs will hang around until the morning round of rain
moves through.

As the main upper trough moves east across Texas another complex of
showers and storms will form late tonight across the Rio Grande
Plains. High resolution models show the complex moving eastward just
south of DRT so have included only VCSH beginning around 09z there.
The complex of showers and storms will approach the I-35 terminals by
11z with a mix of -SHRA and VCTS. While the focus should be moderate
to heavy rainfall a few isolated thunderstorms are possible, so VCTS
was used rather than prevailing TS at this point. The complex of
showers and storms, along with any wrap around precipitation will
move to the east by 15z at DRT and the I-35 terminals by 22z. VFR and
dry conditions will prevail after that with northeast winds less than
10 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

UPDATE...
We have allowed the Tornado Watch to expire at 6 PM. An outflow
boundary has pushed east into portions of Fayette, eastern Bastrop
and southern Caldwell counties. The main threat with the remaining
isolated storms west of the outflow boundary will be small hail
through sunset. Re-trended PoPs and temps through the evening hours,
with coverage of convective activity expected to remain isolated.

No changes made to the PoPs and Wx overnight and into Sunday
morning, with the previous forecast package indicating the potential
of an organized complex of storms coming out of Mexico and across
portions of the CWA. We will leave the Flash Flood Watch intact for
the potential of flooding with this second round of storms Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
There remains a small threat for severe weather and tornadoes with no
significant improvements in the near storm airmass until the watch is
set to expire at 6 pm. Some clearing of counties may need to be
considered from the west in the next hour or two however. A tornado
has not be detected or reported in our forecast area today, but a
radar confirmed tornado was noted just north of Williamson County
earlier this afternoon.

A convergent pattern of a lifting warm front over eastern counties
and a re-firing of thunderstorms along an eastward-propagating
outflow boundary from western counties has resulted in locally heavy
downpours of 2 to 4.5 inches over a small area of the eastern Hill
Country and the eastern halves of Travis and Williamson counties.
While much of the area is still waiting on the much anticipated rain
pattern, the areas noted above have already become saturated to the
point of resulting in some significant street flooding and some
waters rising over some low water crossings. Overall, impacts have
been spotty as has been the rains, However, the area between Johnson
City and Taylor extending south to near San Marcos is expected to see
another 1 to 3 inches of rain based on a good portion of the higher
resolution model data for late tonight into midday Sunday.

A few areas south of the FF watch area could see an isolated 4 inch
amounts, but very little rainfall has accumulated thus far outside
of the watch area. With a 90 knot upper jet streak currently diving
south along the Pacific coast of Mexico, the model run to run trends
are deeper and slower with the upper low, which should extend the
residence time of the next round of heavy rains. Much of the HRRR
runs today have shown good consistency on timing and location of
what looks to be a more widespread mcs, which should cover 80 percent
of the forecast area, with only areas NW of a Del Rio to Mountain
Home line possibly missing out on measurable rains. The axis of
heaviest rains with the next system should impact the San Antonio
area from 6 am to 11 am and the Austin area from 7 am to 1 pm. This
heavy rain axis should be along a N-S axis near Hwy 77 by 1 pm with
decreasing chances of run-off producing rains in the early afternoon.
However, the cumulative rains over the Austin metro area could lead
to lingering flood impacts through as late as 3 pm. Additional rain
chances are indicated into Sunday evening, but this should be mostly
spotty rains associated with the elevated rap- around lifting
processes from the middle and upper levels. Further wobbling and
deepening of the upper low could lead to rain chances running into
Monday morning, but these wrap-around rains should be much lighter or
on the order of 1/4 inch or less.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The deeper trough moving over us this weekend will leave a dry regime
and light northerly flow to promote good warming under sunny skies
for Monday. Areas that have received over an inch of rain are likely
to feel some of the effects of Monday afternoon humidities as the
north winds are mostly expected to be less than 10 mph in the
afternoon. Winds are expected to remain light Monday night, but will
not factor in any chances for ground fog until we the rainfall totals
for tonight into Sunday. Sunny and hot conditions develop under
shortwave ridging aloft Tuesday into Wednesday. A few patches of
brief morning clouds may develop Thursday morning with another
mostly sunny and warm day forecast Thursday afternoon when vigorous
upper low passes well to the north of the area. Later forecasts may
need to consider warmer temperatures for Thursday afternoon as
westerly mixing of winds aloft could be a factor. As that upper low
ejects NEwd, another strong low digs into the SWrn US and brings
possibly another good chance of rain for next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  75  59  83  59 /  40  60  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  65  74  59  83  58 /  50  70  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  74  57  84  58 /  60  70  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            63  73  57  81  57 /  30  50  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  84  59  88  61 /  60  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  73  59  82  57 /  30  60  30  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             64  78  57  86  59 /  80  50  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  75  58  83  58 /  60  70  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  74  60  82  57 /  60  90  40  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       65  75  58  85  60 /  70  70  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  76  58  85  60 /  80  70  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop-Blanco-
Caldwell-Hays-Lee-Travis-Williamson.

&&

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-080000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
650 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
overnight and into Sunday morning from west to east. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible, with hail and damaging wind
gusts the primary threat. Some locally heavy rainfall may also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move across
portions of South Central Texas from west to east on Sunday. Some
storms could be strong to severe, with hail and damaging wind
gusts. Locally heavy rainfall may also be possible. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through Sunday afternoon for Bastrop, Blanco,
Caldwell, Hays, Lee, Travis, and Williamson counties. Heavy rains
that occurred Saturday could combine with an additional 1 to 3
inches of rain expected Sunday and lead to a flash flood threat.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
750 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

TXZ191-206-070130-
Comal TX-Hays TX-
750 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS AND
SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 750 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Canyon Lake Dam, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Braunfels, San Marcos, Wimberley, Canyon Lake, Garden Ridge,
Hunter, Gruene and Sattler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2964 9829 2966 9836 2997 9809 2988 9790
      2970 9811
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 250DEG 9KT 2980 9814

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
801 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             9 ESE CANYON LAKE       29.85N 98.12W
04/06/2019  E0.25 INCH       COMAL              TX   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT INTERSECTION OF
            FM 306 AND PURGATORY RD.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
826 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             9 WSW SAN MARCOS        29.84N 98.08W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       COMAL              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED NEAR WEGNER ROAD AND LOST TRAIL.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
843 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             8 NNE NEW BRAUNFELS     29.81N 98.09W
04/06/2019  E1.00 INCH       COMAL              TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN THE
            RIVER CHASE SUBDIVISION VIA TWITTER USING
            #EWXSPOTTER. PICTURE ALSO INCLUDED.

&&

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
848 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             7 NNE NEW BRAUNFELS     29.80N 98.08W
04/06/2019  E1.75 INCH       COMAL              TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF
            NEW BRAUNFELS.

&&

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
854 PM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             SAN MARCOS              29.88N 97.94W
04/06/2019  E0.75 INCH       HAYS               TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN DOWNTOWN SAN MARCOS.

&&

JR