Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1256 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Waves of convection continue to regenerate across SW KS as of
midnight, as dynamic lift continues to arrive and interact with a
highly moist, unstable airmass. The threat of severe wind/hail and
tornadoes has virtually ended, with the risk now shifting toward
flooding. Storms are highly efficient rain producers, and training
of echoes over saturated soil will aggravate flooding concerns
over the next several hours. Eventually, the HRRR shows convection
exiting eastward out of SW Kansas by sunrise.

A relative break in convection is expected on Friday, as the
effective focusing boundary and instability is shunted to the
south and east of SW KS. Models place the boundary near the far SE
zones, and this is where chance category pops were retained (south
and east of Dodge City). Slight risk of severe from SPC for Barber
county and vicinity appears appropriate, although it appears
storms will struggle to develop any further NW than that. Friday
will be much warmer, as some sunshine and south winds return, with
afternoon temperatures rebounding well into the 70s.

Another round of severe convection is anticipated for Saturday.
00z NAM shows very strong instability building over SW KS in the
afternoon, beneath continued SW flow aloft. NAM progs CAPE on the
order of 3-4000 J/kg and lifted indices to -10C Saturday. 500 mb
flow is notably weaker than we have seen recently, but still
sufficient for convective organization and supercells. In fact,
NAM depicts enhanced 0-1 km EHI over SW KS Saturday evening as the
low level jet intensifies. Assuming discrete storm modes can be
maintained, we are expecting supercells with a distinct tornado
risk late Saturday. Kept scattered/chance category pops in the
grids Saturday afternoon, with warmer temperatures in the lower
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

One more round of severe convection is apparent for Sunday.
Energetic SW flow aloft is maintained, in response to an intense
cold closed low sinking south through California through Sunday. A
lead shortwave ejecting onto the plains ahead of this feature will
increase dynamic lift by late Sunday, interacting with the
dryline. CAPE and shear parameters will again support supercell
thunderstorms and potentially high-end hail/tornado events.
NAM forecasts extreme instability in SW KS late Sunday, with CAPE
as high as 5000 J/kg along with surface dewpoints near 70 F.
Approaching shortwave will augment bulk shear such that supercell
mode will be favored across the western counties Sunday afternoon.
Likely pops are warranted through Sunday evening. Mesoscale
influences are difficult/impossible to determine on Day 3, but
clearly a severe threat is present on Sunday as outlined by SPC.

Western closed low weakens slightly and is forecast to reach Utah
on Memorial Day. With the approach of the upper low and the
resulting stronger lee trough, the holiday will be windy, with
south winds averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Models remain
consistent with a break in the convection Monday, with the dryline
effectively capped.

The upper low is consistently progged to arrive in Nebraska on
Tuesday, with the accompanying cold front bringing a NWly wind
shift and noticeably cooler temperatures. Some showers and
thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage, but amounts and
coverage appear to be limited. Behind the front, Wednesday and
Thursday are expected to be dry and stable with no thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

A surface trough will develop in the lee of the Rockies, resulting
in a resumption of the climatologically favored south winds.
Thunderstorms may affect GCK/DDC after 06 in a warm advection
regime but this is a low probability scenario. Thunderstorms are
more likely after the end of the period as a dry line and frontal
boundary intersect across far western Kansas, leading to isolated
severe t-storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  61  82  60 /  10  30  50  60
GCK  78  58  83  57 /   0  20  50  70
EHA  78  53  83  56 /   0  10  40  40
LBL  77  56  83  58 /  10  20  50  50
HYS  78  59  82  58 /   0  20  30  60
P28  76  65  82  62 /  50  50  30  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 /206 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered thunderstorms will be restricted to the southeast zones
Friday afternoon and evening, where the strongest storms may
produce large hail and strong winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm Wind: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm Hail Risk: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening. High end severe weather is
possible on both these days, with tornadoes and very large hail
possible. Drier more stable air is expected next week.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required across the southeast zones
Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
321 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ081-089-090-242115-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-Comanche KS-
321 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARBER...EASTERN COMANCHE AND
EASTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 321 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Aetna, moving northeast at 60 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lodge, Kiowa, Hardtner, Sharon, Preston, Sawyer, Hazelton,
Isabel, Coats, Lake City, Sun City, Aetna and Cairo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 9847 3739 9846 3738 9835 3700 9835
      3700 9947 3701 9946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 219DEG 54KT 3717 9886

SUGDEN