Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
420 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Plentiful moisture, frontal boundary and upper level disturbance
will lead to widespread thunderstorms, some severe, through the
midnight hour. Surface based storms, which may be tornadic, will
be confined to the warm front zone over south central Kansas, with
elevated hailers to the north and west. On Friday the effective
frontal boundary will be undergoing frontolysis, but there should
still be enough convergence for surface based storms in south
central Kansas; and some of these will likely be severe with
large hail and damaging winds. These storms may be south and east
of Barber county depending on the exact location of the front.
South central Kansas will have to be watched for additional
flooding given the heavy rains expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The pattern will remain active through at least Monday as another
shortwave trough slowly approaches. There will be chances for
severe storms somewhere across the plains each day. Mesoscale
boundaries will likely play an increasing role in storm mode as
often happens as we get deeper into the warm season.

A break in the wet weather can be expected from late Tuesday into
early Thursday in the wake of the upper level disturbance. This
system will push a cold front through western Kansas with drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next
several hours, and included the appropriate convective TEMPO
groups and VCTS mentions. Widespread IFR stratus cigs as of 21z
will continue through the 04-06z Fri time range, before cigs
gradually improve to VFR overnight. E/SE winds currently will gain
more of a westerly component overnight. After 15z Fri, winds will
trend southerly at 10-20 kts. VFR will prevail on Friday, with
areas of stratocumulus, with afternoon convection most likely
southeast of the airports.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  76  61  82 /  80  20  30  40
GCK  47  77  57  82 /  60  10  20  40
EHA  47  78  57  83 /  40  10  10  40
LBL  52  77  59  83 /  70  20  30  30
HYS  55  77  61  82 /  70  20  30  20
P28  65  76  64  82 /  90  60  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ066-079>081-
088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
317 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019 /217 AM MDT Thu May 23 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely, with the threat of flooding highest
across the southeast zones. Some storms this afternoon through
this evening will be strong to severe, with the primary threat
being large hail. Across the far southeast zones, including Meade,
Clark, Comanche and Barber counties, a tornado risk will exist
this afternoon and evening if warmer more humid air can move into
Kansas. Currently, the tornado threat is expected to remain
mainly just to the south of Kansas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to favor the
southeast zones Friday, and area wide Saturday and Sunday. On each
of these days, the flooding risk will continue. Thunderstorms both
Saturday and Sunday will be capable of large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required this afternoon and
tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
926 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ088-089-240300-
Clark KS-Comanche KS-
926 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 924 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Sitka, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Coldwater, Protection, Sitka, Wilmore and Lake Coldwater.

A tornado warning is in effect for this storm in Harper county
Oklahoma until 945 PM.  Stay tuned to further updates as the
tornadic part of this storm gets closer to the Kansas border.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3701 9980 3737 9958 3733 9909 3700 9950
      3700 9978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0224Z 215DEG 49KT 3702 9966

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
937 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ076-077-086-087-240315-
Gray KS-Seward KS-Meade KS-Haskell KS-
937 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORD...NORTHEASTERN
SEWARD...NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHERN GRAY AND SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 937 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Plains, or 10 miles southeast of Tice, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montezuma, Copeland, The Haggard Elev and Tice.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3737 10075 3774 10065 3773 10021 3770 10021
      3730 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 205DEG 43KT 3737 10064

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1005 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ077-078-087-240345-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Ford KS-
1005 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD...NORTHWESTERN
MEADE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1005 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Missler, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Meade, Montezuma, Ensign, The Haggard Elev and Missler.

LAT...LON 3726 10033 3735 10053 3773 10039 3773 9989
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 209DEG 37KT 3738 10039

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1018 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ077-078-087-240400-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Ford KS-
1018 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FORD...NORTHERN
MEADE AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1018 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Missler, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Meade, Montezuma, Meade State Park, Missler and Plains.

LAT...LON 3715 10041 3724 10061 3760 10044 3748 10012
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 206DEG 28KT 3727 10048

JJOHNSON