Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Dodge City, KS

481 
WWUS53 KDDC 240612
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSC051-165-240645-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-190524T0645Z/
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
112 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES...

At 112 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Loretta, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
La Crosse, Bison, Schoenchen, Liebenthal, Loretta, Pfeifer and
Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9904 3870 9904 3870 9903 3859 9903
      3848 9924 3860 9948 3879 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 220DEG 35KT 3863 9924 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TURNER

180 
WWUS53 KDDC 240629
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
129 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSC051-165-240638-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-190524T0645Z/
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
129 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN
ELLIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3875 9904 3870 9904 3870 9903 3859 9903
      3848 9924 3860 9948 3879 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 219DEG 27KT 3873 9914 

$$

TURNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Waves of convection continue to regenerate across SW KS as of
midnight, as dynamic lift continues to arrive and interact with a
highly moist, unstable airmass. The threat of severe wind/hail and
tornadoes has virtually ended, with the risk now shifting toward
flooding. Storms are highly efficient rain producers, and training
of echoes over saturated soil will aggravate flooding concerns
over the next several hours. Eventually, the HRRR shows convection
exiting eastward out of SW Kansas by sunrise.

A relative break in convection is expected on Friday, as the
effective focusing boundary and instability is shunted to the
south and east of SW KS. Models place the boundary near the far SE
zones, and this is where chance category pops were retained (south
and east of Dodge City). Slight risk of severe from SPC for Barber
county and vicinity appears appropriate, although it appears
storms will struggle to develop any further NW than that. Friday
will be much warmer, as some sunshine and south winds return, with
afternoon temperatures rebounding well into the 70s.

Another round of severe convection is anticipated for Saturday.
00z NAM shows very strong instability building over SW KS in the
afternoon, beneath continued SW flow aloft. NAM progs CAPE on the
order of 3-4000 J/kg and lifted indices to -10C Saturday. 500 mb
flow is notably weaker than we have seen recently, but still
sufficient for convective organization and supercells. In fact,
NAM depicts enhanced 0-1 km EHI over SW KS Saturday evening as the
low level jet intensifies. Assuming discrete storm modes can be
maintained, we are expecting supercells with a distinct tornado
risk late Saturday. Kept scattered/chance category pops in the
grids Saturday afternoon, with warmer temperatures in the lower
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

The pattern will remain active through at least Monday as another
shortwave trough slowly approaches. There will be chances for
severe storms somewhere across the plains each day. Mesoscale
boundaries will likely play an increasing role in storm mode as
often happens as we get deeper into the warm season.

A break in the wet weather can be expected from late Tuesday into
early Thursday in the wake of the upper level disturbance. This
system will push a cold front through western Kansas with drier
air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Scattered convection will continue for a few more hours, with
locally heavy rain and reduced cig/vis. HRRR model shows
convection ending and/or exiting eastward out of SW KS by 12z Fri,
with dry conditions returning to the airports. Outside of
convection, winds will trend light NW overnight, before becoming
light and variable around sunrise Friday. After 18z Fri, modestly
gusty south/southeast winds will resume at all airports, averaging
10-20 kts. VFR will prevail daylight Friday, with afternoon
convection favoring areas south and east of DDC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  76  61  81 /  80  10  30  40
GCK  47  78  58  82 /  60  10  20  40
EHA  46  78  53  81 /  30  10  10  50
LBL  50  77  56  80 /  60  20  20  40
HYS  54  79  61  82 /  80  10  30  20
P28  63  75  65  82 /  60  50  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for KSZ066-079>081-
088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
317 AM CDT Thu May 23 2019 /217 AM MDT Thu May 23 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely, with the threat of flooding highest
across the southeast zones. Some storms this afternoon through
this evening will be strong to severe, with the primary threat
being large hail. Across the far southeast zones, including Meade,
Clark, Comanche and Barber counties, a tornado risk will exist
this afternoon and evening if warmer more humid air can move into
Kansas. Currently, the tornado threat is expected to remain
mainly just to the south of Kansas.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to favor the
southeast zones Friday, and area wide Saturday and Sunday. On each
of these days, the flooding risk will continue. Thunderstorms both
Saturday and Sunday will be capable of large hail, damaging winds,
and tornadoes.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be required this afternoon and
tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1116 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ064-077-078-240500-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
1116 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...EASTERN
FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1116 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ensign, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Cimarron, Ensign and Howell.

LAT...LON 3772 10039 3800 10024 3800 10023 3802 10023
      3814 10016 3793 9977 3759 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 224DEG 35KT 3771 10025

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1122 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ080-081-089-090-240515-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
1122 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN
BARBER...NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilmore, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cullison, Coats, Sun City, Wellsford, Croft and Belvidere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3714 9916 3718 9928 3767 9904 3760 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 215DEG 32KT 3733 9914

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1131 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ063-064-077-240515-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-
1131 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...EASTERN
FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
AM CDT...

At 1131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Charleston, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jetmore, Pierceville, Ingalls, Charleston and Kalvesta.

LAT...LON 3770 10054 3783 10071 3825 10053 3810 9988
      3791 10019 3791 10022 3789 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 224DEG 49KT 3782 10056

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1149 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ066-240515-
Stafford KS-
1149 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stafford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Zenith and Neola.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3784 9853 3797 9873 3826 9851 3826 9847
      3790 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 217DEG 37KT 3804 9855

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW ALEXANDER          38.46N 99.56W
05/23/2019                   RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD AT AVE S AND RD 120. ALSO
            ABOUT 1/4 MILE EAST OF HWY 183 NEAR AVE F
            AND G, WATER WAS RUSHING OVER ROAD .

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E ENSIGN              37.66N 100.16W
05/23/2019                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT 107 RD AND SADDLE.

&&

MR