Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

Waves of convection continue to regenerate across SW KS as of
midnight, as dynamic lift continues to arrive and interact with a
highly moist, unstable airmass. The threat of severe wind/hail and
tornadoes has virtually ended, with the risk now shifting toward
flooding. Storms are highly efficient rain producers, and training
of echoes over saturated soil will aggravate flooding concerns
over the next several hours. Eventually, the HRRR shows convection
exiting eastward out of SW Kansas by sunrise.

A relative break in convection is expected on Friday, as the
effective focusing boundary and instability is shunted to the
south and east of SW KS. Models place the boundary near the far SE
zones, and this is where chance category pops were retained (south
and east of Dodge City). Slight risk of severe from SPC for Barber
county and vicinity appears appropriate, although it appears
storms will struggle to develop any further NW than that. Friday
will be much warmer, as some sunshine and south winds return, with
afternoon temperatures rebounding well into the 70s.

Another round of severe convection is anticipated for Saturday.
00z NAM shows very strong instability building over SW KS in the
afternoon, beneath continued SW flow aloft. NAM progs CAPE on the
order of 3-4000 J/kg and lifted indices to -10C Saturday. 500 mb
flow is notably weaker than we have seen recently, but still
sufficient for convective organization and supercells. In fact,
NAM depicts enhanced 0-1 km EHI over SW KS Saturday evening as the
low level jet intensifies. Assuming discrete storm modes can be
maintained, we are expecting supercells with a distinct tornado
risk late Saturday. Kept scattered/chance category pops in the
grids Saturday afternoon, with warmer temperatures in the lower
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

One more round of severe convection is apparent for Sunday.
Energetic SW flow aloft is maintained, in response to an intense
cold closed low sinking south through California through Sunday. A
lead shortwave ejecting onto the plains ahead of this feature will
increase dynamic lift by late Sunday, interacting with the
dryline. CAPE and shear parameters will again support supercell
thunderstorms and potentially high-end hail/tornado events.
NAM forecasts extreme instability in SW KS late Sunday, with CAPE
as high as 5000 J/kg along with surface dewpoints near 70 F.
Approaching shortwave will augment bulk shear such that supercell
mode will be favored across the western counties Sunday afternoon.
Likely pops are warranted through Sunday evening. Mesoscale
influences are difficult/impossible to determine on Day 3, but
clearly a severe threat is present on Sunday as outlined by SPC.

Western closed low weakens slightly and is forecast to reach Utah
on Memorial Day. With the approach of the upper low and the
resulting stronger lee trough, the holiday will be windy, with
south winds averaging 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Models remain
consistent with a break in the convection Monday, with the dryline
effectively capped.

The upper low is consistently progged to arrive in Nebraska on
Tuesday, with the accompanying cold front bringing a NWly wind
shift and noticeably cooler temperatures. Some showers and
thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage, but amounts and
coverage appear to be limited. Behind the front, Wednesday and
Thursday are expected to be dry and stable with no thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Scattered convection will continue for a few more hours, with
locally heavy rain and reduced cig/vis. HRRR model shows
convection ending and/or exiting eastward out of SW KS by 12z Fri,
with dry conditions returning to the airports. Outside of
convection, winds will trend light NW overnight, before becoming
light and variable around sunrise Friday. After 18z Fri, modestly
gusty south/southeast winds will resume at all airports, averaging
10-20 kts. VFR will prevail daylight Friday, with afternoon
convection favoring areas south and east of DDC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  61  82  60 /  10  30  40  60
GCK  78  58  83  57 /  10  20  40  70
EHA  78  53  83  56 /  10  10  40  40
LBL  77  56  83  58 /  20  20  50  50
HYS  79  61  82  58 /  10  30  20  60
P28  75  65  82  62 /  50  50  30  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ066-079>081-
088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-250815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
306 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 /206 AM MDT Fri May 24 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered thunderstorms will be restricted to the southeast zones
Friday afternoon and evening, where the strongest storms may
produce large hail and strong winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm Wind: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm Hail Risk: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion

Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected both
Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening. High end severe weather is
possible on both these days, with tornadoes and very large hail
possible. Drier more stable air is expected next week.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required across the southeast zones
Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1122 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ080-081-089-090-240515-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
1122 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN
BARBER...NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1122 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wilmore, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cullison, Coats, Sun City, Wellsford, Croft and Belvidere.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3714 9916 3718 9928 3767 9904 3760 9864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 215DEG 32KT 3733 9914

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1131 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ063-064-077-240515-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-
1131 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...EASTERN
FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
AM CDT...

At 1131 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Charleston, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jetmore, Pierceville, Ingalls, Charleston and Kalvesta.

LAT...LON 3770 10054 3783 10071 3825 10053 3810 9988
      3791 10019 3791 10022 3789 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 224DEG 49KT 3782 10056

JJOHNSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1149 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

KSZ066-240515-
Stafford KS-
1149 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM CDT...

At 1149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stafford, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stafford, Zenith and Neola.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3784 9853 3797 9873 3826 9851 3826 9847
      3790 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 217DEG 37KT 3804 9855

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW ALEXANDER          38.46N 99.56W
05/23/2019                   RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER ROAD AT AVE S AND RD 120. ALSO
            ABOUT 1/4 MILE EAST OF HWY 183 NEAR AVE F
            AND G, WATER WAS RUSHING OVER ROAD .

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1232 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E ENSIGN              37.66N 100.16W
05/23/2019                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD AT 107 RD AND SADDLE.

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

KSZ046-065-066-078>081-240730-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
135 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL FORD...NORTHERN
KIOWA...PAWNEE...WESTERN STAFFORD...SOUTHEASTERN RUSH...EDWARDS AND
NORTHWESTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 135 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rush Center to near Mullinville. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Larned, Kinsley, Macksville, Lewis, Garfield, Rush Center, Rozel,
Belpre, Timken, Ash Valley, Fellsburg, Sanford, Frizell, Centerview,
Zook, Shaffer and Trousdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3771 9900 3761 9965 3847 9935 3853 9903
      3826 9903 3826 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 265DEG 34KT 3841 9929 3764 9956

TURNER