Storm Warning 59, NWS Anchorage, AK

517 
FZAK51 PAFC 140027
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-141300-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
Weak low pressure will remain in the northern Gulf through Fri.

$$

PKZ119-141300-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of the Copper River 
Delta. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of the Copper River Delta. 
Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of the Copper River
Delta. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-141300-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-141300-
Resurrection Bay-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-141300-
Prince William Sound-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes.
Seas 6 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of bays and passes
diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft 
in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-141300-
Port Valdez-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Gusts to 40 kt. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-141300-
Valdez Narrows-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-141300-
Valdez Arm-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-141300-
Passage Canal-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near Whittier. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt near Whittier diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier. Seas 2 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-141300-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-141300-
Barren Islands East-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-141300-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. 
Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. N of
Dangerous Cape, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ136-141300-
Chiniak Bay-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-141300-
Marmot Bay-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-141300-
Shelikof Strait-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 55 kt out of bays and passes diminishing to 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt becoming variable 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt out of bays and passes in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-141300-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of western bays and
passes in the evening. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-141300-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt out of western bays and
passes. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas in ice free
waters 1 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ141-141300-
Kachemak Bay-
327 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Aloft, the synoptic pattern is composed of a ridge building over
the Gulf of Alaska, and a shortwave trough positioned over the
central Aleutians and central Bering. The jet stream is in a zonal
pattern and the areas of the highest winds are over the western
Gulf/Lower Kuskokwim Valley and the western Bering. In both of
these locations, winds are reaching 120 kts at 30,000 ft. Weak
southerly flow continues over the southwest Alaska and offshore
flow dominates Southcentral and the Gulf. Satellite imagery shows
clear skies over Southcentral and the Gulf as the ridge builds
over the area. The southern Bering is covered stratus which mimics
the location of the jet stream.

At the surface, an intensifying surface low travels eastward
along the southern coast of the central Aleutians. A second weak
low spins in the northeastern Gulf. This surface low has little
upper level support but aiding the westerly flow through the Gulf.
The offshore flow present at the surface is increasing winds over
the Barren Islands and the central Gulf. Temperatures throughout
Southcentral are beginning to drop as cold air from the north is
slowly advecting into the area, especially in the Copper River
Basin. Southern mainland Alaska is fairly dry while the central
Aleutians is experiencing precipitation this evening with the
surface low progression.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to have very good run-to-run consistency. Some of
the high resolution models are being used for the outflow winds in
the eastern part of the forecast area. The gusty winds along the
Gulf coast are being kept in for longer than models indicate as
they typically last longer than models expect. The next real model
issue is showing up this weekend with a wave/low moving toward the
western Gulf of Alaska. The track and structure of this feature is
handled a bit different by the models and will impact forecasts in
both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The stratus that is holding just to the west of PANC early
this afternoon is likely to make its way back over the airport
this evening. The big question then becomes whether the increasing
northerly winds late tonight will be enough to mix out the
atmosphere and break up the stratus. It is looking more like a
stratus situation than a fog event overnight, but there is always
the possibility of periods of fog with the stratus. Due to the
depth of the mixing and the strength of the tightening pressure
gradient, it looks like the stratus should break up late tonight
as winds pick up and then the terminal should remain VFR after
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tuesday night through Friday)...
Clearing skies, cooling temperatures and strong offshore winds
along the coast are in order for the next few days. Northwest flow
will develop tonight into tomorrow over all of Southcentral AK.
This will cause cold air to dive south out of the Arctic, as a
front over moving east out of northern AK couples with a strong
low developing in the Northern Gulf of AK. The exiting low (which
models have been increasing in strength) in northern AK will bring
in the northwest flow, while the low in the gulf will anchor this
flow, creating a broad trough of cold air.

This cold air will cause temperatures to gradually decrease over
land, while the force of cold air will push through mountain
passes and valleys along the coast, creating some strong winds.
Winds will be mainly a result of surface based colder air and
pressure gradient and will not have strong winds in the upper
levels for support, so expecting strong but not warning level
winds. Expect these conditions to last through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wednesday
and Thursday)...
Trailing precipitation associated with a weak area of low
pressure south of the AKPEN continues to bring scattered rain and
snow showers over Southwest and the northern AKPEN. As this low
continues to move eastward, gusty northerly winds will become
channeled through the usual gaps and passes along the Pacific side
of the AKPEN this evening. By Wed, a weak ridge over the eastern
Bering will begin to briefly build over Southwest before another
front approaches Wed evening. Ahead of the front, subsidence
associated with the ridge may allow for fog to develop late Wed
night into early Thu morning. As the front moves in Thu morning,
expect warm air and gusty south to southeast winds to return
across most of the area. Snow combined with gusty offshore flow
along the YK Delta could create areas of blowing snow, reducing
visibility at times especially along the coast. Some good news is
that this front appears weaker than Monday's system, so there are
minimal concerns regarding coastal flooding at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and
2...Wednesday and Thursday)...
Westerly flow continues ahead of an incoming front over the
Bering. As another storm force low approaches from the west, its
associated front lifts over the western Aleutians this evening and
reaches the central Bering by Wed afternoon. Initially, this
front will bring strong southerly winds, as an area of storm force
winds embedded within a larger swath of gales moves in over the
western Aleutians Wed morning. As cold air wraps in behind the
slowly advancing low, another round of south to west storm force
winds will move over the western Aleutians Wed evening into Thu
morning before diminishing to gales by Thu afternoon.

Of note, a sharp baroclinic zone currently exists along the
Aleutians, providing fuel for successive shortwaves around the
parent low to develop later in the week. By Thu afternoon, a weak
disturbance forms just west of Adak, producing a pocket of southerly
gale force winds through Thu evening.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Beginning Friday, there is overall good model agreement as a
strong low in the Bering lifts north out of the area leading to
generally small craft to low end gale force southwesterly winds
over the western half of the Bering. There is better confidence
that an area of southerly gales will push across the eastern and
northern Bering through Friday associated with a frontal system
pushing through the area. Overall high confidence with diminishing
westerly/southwesterly winds across the Bering Saturday into
Sunday. By the end of Sunday, another strong low approaches the
western Bering from the N Pacific. Models begin to diverge some at
this point with the track and strength as it moves into the
Bering, varying at this point between solid storm force and low
end gale strength.

With the major storm track remaining out west, the Gulf should
see rather benign weather with sub gale force winds through the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A low centered south of Siberia will bring generally persistent
westerly flow to the Aleutians Friday through Sunday morning.
Models are in good agreement that winds will gradually diminish
from marginal gales Friday to light by Sunday as the low weakens
and departs to the north. Precipitation will track west to east
across the Bering and into the southwest mainland Friday ahead of
the associated cold front, with scattered showers remaining
possible across the region through Sunday morning. A stronger low
will move into the western Aleutians Sunday afternoon. The GFS
deepens the low much more (giving a large area of storm force
winds south and east of the center of circulation) than the EC and
Canadian models and as it has weakened slightly from the previous
run, we are currently leaning towards the latter models in the
forecast with gales and moderate rain tracking west east Sunday
afternoon through Monday. Models have another low tracking in the
same general location on Tuesday, however as of now, both the GFS
and EC show it as much weaker than the Sunday/Monday low.

Generally fair skies are expected Friday across the Gulf and
southern Alaska under a ridge. A warm front and resultant
southwesterly flow will gradually track into the region Saturday
and bring the potential for accumulating snow through the weekend.
All 3 major long range model solutions bring the snow in around midday
Saturday. The GFS brings in a second wave of snow over the Anchorage
area on Sunday associated with a weak low that it develops over
the Gulf. Neither the Canadian or EC models develop this low and
given the unreliability of mesoscale features shown in large-scale
models, we are currently not favoring this solution. The Canadian
model also has a closed low centered over southwest Alaska Sunday
afternoon with associated precipitation, however neither this is
not shown on the EC or GFS. Thus we are favoring the EC overall
for this event. There is more significant disagreement Monday into
Tuesday regarding the position of a low over the Bering Sea,
though widespread scattered snow showers appear likely for much of
the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 132 175 177 178.
 Gale Warning 120 121 127>129 131 136>138 150 155 170 172>174 176
179 181 185.
 Heavy Frz Spray 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP/KVP