Gale Warning 152, NWS Anchorage, AK

746 
FZAK52 PAFC 140055
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-141400-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A front over the western Aleutians will move to the eastern Bering 
Thu morning then dissipate Thu afternoon. A second font, associated 
with a 956 mb Kamchatka low, will move over the western Aleutians Wed
night. The low will then spread over the Bering through Fri.

$$

PKZ150-141400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-141400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt except NW 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 15 kt becoming E after
midnight. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ160-141400-
Bristol Bay-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming NE 10 kt after midnight. Seas 7 
ft. Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray and patchy freezing
fog. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ165-141400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, NW wind 15 kt
becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ170-141400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ171-141400-
Unalaska Bay-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt early increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain 
and snow.
.THU...SW wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-141400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft early building to 12
ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 32 ft.

$$

PKZ173-141400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ174-141400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 35 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 35 ft.

$$

PKZ175-141400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-141400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 33 ft.

$$

PKZ177-141400-
Adak to Kiska-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 45 kt. Bering side, seas 16 ft 
building to 22 ft after midnight. Pacific side, seas 21 ft building 
to 31 ft after midnight. Snow showers.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...35 ft Pacific side.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft Bering side...27 ft Pacific
side. Snow showers and rain.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ178-141400-
Kiska to Attu-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Bering side, seas 27 ft building to 37 ft
after midnight. Pacific side, seas 37 ft building to 45 ft after
midnight. Widespread snow showers.
.THU...S wind 55 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 43 ft
subsiding to 36 ft in the afternoon. Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-141400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt early increasing to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft
building to 12 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 28 ft.

$$

PKZ180-141400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Freezing spray and patchy freezing fog.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray along the
Kuskokwim Bay coast. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ181-141400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind to 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after 
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray after 
midnight. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

PKZ185-141400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 30 kt increasing to
40 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt in the
evening increasing to 45 kt. Seas building to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.THU...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

422 
FZAK52 PAFC 141258
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150145-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 962 mb low at 290 nm NW of Shemya lifts north today. A Pacific low
moves to 205 nm SE of Shemya at 976 mb tonight, then to 370 nm SW of
Gambell at 955 mb Fri afternoon. A 998 mb low moves from the Pacific
to the AKPEN by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-150145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150145-
Bristol Bay-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. 
From Port Moller E, SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150145-
Unalaska Bay-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Widespread rain showers and
snow.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150145-
Adak to Kiska-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 27 ft Bering side...35 ft Pacific side. Widespread rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...29 ft Pacific
side. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150145-
Kiska to Attu-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Bering side, seas 38 ft. Pacific side,
seas 45 ft subsiding to 34 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft building to 26 ft in the
afternoon. Rain and snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. 
Freezing spray. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
358 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt becoming SW 25 kt
in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 40 kt. Seas
15 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30
kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24
ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 32 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Aloft, the synoptic pattern is composed of a ridge building over
the Gulf of Alaska, and a shortwave trough positioned over the
central Aleutians and central Bering. The jet stream is in a zonal
pattern and the areas of the highest winds are over the western
Gulf/Lower Kuskokwim Valley and the western Bering. In both of
these locations, winds are reaching 120 kts at 30,000 ft. Weak
southerly flow continues over the southwest Alaska and offshore
flow dominates Southcentral and the Gulf. Satellite imagery shows
clear skies over Southcentral and the Gulf as the ridge builds
over the area. The southern Bering is covered stratus which mimics
the location of the jet stream.

At the surface, an intensifying surface low travels eastward
along the southern coast of the central Aleutians. A second weak
low spins in the northeastern Gulf. This surface low has little
upper level support but aiding the westerly flow through the Gulf.
The offshore flow present at the surface is increasing winds over
the Barren Islands and the central Gulf. Temperatures throughout
Southcentral are beginning to drop as cold air from the north is
slowly advecting into the area, especially in the Copper River
Basin. Southern mainland Alaska is fairly dry while the central
Aleutians is experiencing precipitation this evening with the
surface low progression.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models continue to have very good run-to-run consistency. Some of
the high resolution models are being used for the outflow winds in
the eastern part of the forecast area. The gusty winds along the
Gulf coast are being kept in for longer than models indicate as
they typically last longer than models expect. The next real model
issue is showing up this weekend with a wave/low moving toward the
western Gulf of Alaska. The track and structure of this feature is
handled a bit different by the models and will impact forecasts in
both Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The stratus that is holding just to the west of PANC early
this afternoon is likely to make its way back over the airport
this evening. The big question then becomes whether the increasing
northerly winds late tonight will be enough to mix out the
atmosphere and break up the stratus. It is looking more like a
stratus situation than a fog event overnight, but there is always
the possibility of periods of fog with the stratus. Due to the
depth of the mixing and the strength of the tightening pressure
gradient, it looks like the stratus should break up late tonight
as winds pick up and then the terminal should remain VFR after
that.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tuesday night through Friday)...
Clearing skies, cooling temperatures and strong offshore winds
along the coast are in order for the next few days. Northwest flow
will develop tonight into tomorrow over all of Southcentral AK.
This will cause cold air to dive south out of the Arctic, as a
front over moving east out of northern AK couples with a strong
low developing in the Northern Gulf of AK. The exiting low (which
models have been increasing in strength) in northern AK will bring
in the northwest flow, while the low in the gulf will anchor this
flow, creating a broad trough of cold air.

This cold air will cause temperatures to gradually decrease over
land, while the force of cold air will push through mountain
passes and valleys along the coast, creating some strong winds.
Winds will be mainly a result of surface based colder air and
pressure gradient and will not have strong winds in the upper
levels for support, so expecting strong but not warning level
winds. Expect these conditions to last through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Wednesday
and Thursday)...
Trailing precipitation associated with a weak area of low
pressure south of the AKPEN continues to bring scattered rain and
snow showers over Southwest and the northern AKPEN. As this low
continues to move eastward, gusty northerly winds will become
channeled through the usual gaps and passes along the Pacific side
of the AKPEN this evening. By Wed, a weak ridge over the eastern
Bering will begin to briefly build over Southwest before another
front approaches Wed evening. Ahead of the front, subsidence
associated with the ridge may allow for fog to develop late Wed
night into early Thu morning. As the front moves in Thu morning,
expect warm air and gusty south to southeast winds to return
across most of the area. Snow combined with gusty offshore flow
along the YK Delta could create areas of blowing snow, reducing
visibility at times especially along the coast. Some good news is
that this front appears weaker than Monday's system, so there are
minimal concerns regarding coastal flooding at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and
2...Wednesday and Thursday)...
Westerly flow continues ahead of an incoming front over the
Bering. As another storm force low approaches from the west, its
associated front lifts over the western Aleutians this evening and
reaches the central Bering by Wed afternoon. Initially, this
front will bring strong southerly winds, as an area of storm force
winds embedded within a larger swath of gales moves in over the
western Aleutians Wed morning. As cold air wraps in behind the
slowly advancing low, another round of south to west storm force
winds will move over the western Aleutians Wed evening into Thu
morning before diminishing to gales by Thu afternoon.

Of note, a sharp baroclinic zone currently exists along the
Aleutians, providing fuel for successive shortwaves around the
parent low to develop later in the week. By Thu afternoon, a weak
disturbance forms just west of Adak, producing a pocket of southerly
gale force winds through Thu evening.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...
Beginning Friday, there is overall good model agreement as a
strong low in the Bering lifts north out of the area leading to
generally small craft to low end gale force southwesterly winds
over the western half of the Bering. There is better confidence
that an area of southerly gales will push across the eastern and
northern Bering through Friday associated with a frontal system
pushing through the area. Overall high confidence with diminishing
westerly/southwesterly winds across the Bering Saturday into
Sunday. By the end of Sunday, another strong low approaches the
western Bering from the N Pacific. Models begin to diverge some at
this point with the track and strength as it moves into the
Bering, varying at this point between solid storm force and low
end gale strength.

With the major storm track remaining out west, the Gulf should
see rather benign weather with sub gale force winds through the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A low centered south of Siberia will bring generally persistent
westerly flow to the Aleutians Friday through Sunday morning.
Models are in good agreement that winds will gradually diminish
from marginal gales Friday to light by Sunday as the low weakens
and departs to the north. Precipitation will track west to east
across the Bering and into the southwest mainland Friday ahead of
the associated cold front, with scattered showers remaining
possible across the region through Sunday morning. A stronger low
will move into the western Aleutians Sunday afternoon. The GFS
deepens the low much more (giving a large area of storm force
winds south and east of the center of circulation) than the EC and
Canadian models and as it has weakened slightly from the previous
run, we are currently leaning towards the latter models in the
forecast with gales and moderate rain tracking west east Sunday
afternoon through Monday. Models have another low tracking in the
same general location on Tuesday, however as of now, both the GFS
and EC show it as much weaker than the Sunday/Monday low.

Generally fair skies are expected Friday across the Gulf and
southern Alaska under a ridge. A warm front and resultant
southwesterly flow will gradually track into the region Saturday
and bring the potential for accumulating snow through the weekend.
All 3 major long range model solutions bring the snow in around midday
Saturday. The GFS brings in a second wave of snow over the Anchorage
area on Sunday associated with a weak low that it develops over
the Gulf. Neither the Canadian or EC models develop this low and
given the unreliability of mesoscale features shown in large-scale
models, we are currently not favoring this solution. The Canadian
model also has a closed low centered over southwest Alaska Sunday
afternoon with associated precipitation, however neither this is
not shown on the EC or GFS. Thus we are favoring the EC overall
for this event. There is more significant disagreement Monday into
Tuesday regarding the position of a low over the Bering Sea,
though widespread scattered snow showers appear likely for much of
the region.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 132 175 177 178.
 Gale Warning 120 121 127>129 131 136>138 150 155 170 172>174 176
179 181 185.
 Heavy Frz Spray 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RA/EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KO
MARINE/LONG TERM...AP/KVP