Gale Warning 111, NWS Anchorage, AK

057 
FZAK62 PAFC 131237
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-140330-
337 AM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 992 mb low at 49N 174E will move to 53N 169E at 960 mb Thursday
morning, sending a front across the Bering and Aleutians. Another
996 mb low at 46N 177E Thursday morning moves to 58N 177W at 971 
mb by Friday morning, then to eastern Siberia Friday night. Once 
again, a front will cross most of the Bering and Aleutians Friday 
into Saturday.

$$

PKZ411-140330-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
337 AM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft. Widespread rain and 
snow showers.
.THU...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft building to 27 to 36
ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-140330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
337 AM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind up to 20 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-140330-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
337 AM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 35 to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft building
to 12 to 18 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ414-140330-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
337 AM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.

$$

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 140055
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-141400-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the western Aleutians will move to the eastern Bering 
Thu morning then dissipate Thu afternoon. A second font, associated 
with a 956 mb Kamchatka low, will move over the western Aleutians Wed
night. The low will then spread over the Bering through Fri.

$$

PKZ411-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E to S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 27 ft. Widespread 
snow showers.
.THU...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft building to 27 to 35
ft in the afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 17 to 32 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE to SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Snow.
.THU...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 26 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ413-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE to SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft. Snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft. Rain and snow
showers.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ414-141400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 PM AKST Wed Feb 13 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Snow 
and rain.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 29 ft.

$$

945 
FZAK62 PAFC 141254
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-150145-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 962 mb low at 55N 168E lifts north today. A Pacific low moves to 
51N 178E at 976 mb tonight, then to 60N 179E at 955 mb Fri afternoon.
Another 998 mb low moves from the Pacific to the AKPEN by Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 34 ft building to 28 to
35 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Snow and widespread rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 40 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 to 35 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ413-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.

$$

PKZ414-150145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
354 AM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.

$$

267 
FZAK62 PAFC 150052
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-151345-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 985 mb low at 49N 178E will move to 60N 179E at 957 mb Fri 
afternoon. The associated front will persist over the Bering through 
Sat morning. A 997 mb North Pacific low will move to 53N 162W Sat 
morning then it will move near 55N 162W at 964 mb Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-151345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW to E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 16 to 31 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Snow showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-151345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt becoming SE 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 27 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 40 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 to 35 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 21 to 33 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-151345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 20 to 33 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SUN...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-151345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
352 PM AKST Thu Feb 14 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 26 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 28 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

423 
FZAK62 PAFC 151256
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160215-
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 964 mb low at 56N 179E will deepen to 959 mb as it tracks north
to 61N 179E this afternoon. A front in the central Bering will 
reach the Southwest Alaska coast this afternoon. A Pacific low 
moves to 50N 176W at 1000 mb Saturday morning, then to 59N 164W at 
995 mb Sunday morning. A third low, around 970 mb, approaches Shemya 
from the southwest on Sunday.

$$

PKZ411-160215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Snow showers and 
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 32 ft. 
Snow showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 29 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 35 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
356 AM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 32 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

494 
FZAK62 PAFC 160047
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161345-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A front over the Bering will dissipate Sat afternoon. A 994 mb low 
will develop at 50N 174W Sat morning then it will move inland over 
Bethel at 1000 mb Sun morning. A 967 mb North Pacific low will move 
to 49N 174E Sun morning then it will move to 54N 180W at 968 mb Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 27 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 29 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 15 2019

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Snow and rain
showers.
.SUN...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 29 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 AM AKST Tue Feb 12 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The polar jet is highly amplified over the North Pacific, mainland
Alaska and the Eastern Pacific. The jet core is north of the
Aleutian chain and trekking into the Kuskokwim Delta. The
longwave pattern features a deep and broad trough from Eastern
Russia to Japan and into the Bering. Meanwhile, there is an upper
level ridge from the Central Pacific that bisects mainland Alaska
and actually spans into the Yukon Territory, NW Territories and
over some of the northern islands of Nunavut like Bathurst Island
and Cornwallis Island. There is a baroclinic zone spanning from SW
AK, across the AKPEN and into the north Pacific with a new wave
developing along the frontal boundary southwest of Adak. Looking
further down range there is another low pressure system east of
Japan and a third low pressure system near Kamchatka over the Sea
of Okhotsk. There is a menagerie of shortwaves from the Alaska
Range to regions west of the International Dateline. On the
ASCAT/advanced scatterometer both gale and storm force winds were
detected over the Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The run to run continuity with the models has been excellent.
Using ASCAT data for initialization purposes, both the GFS and
ECMWF did well with the placement of the low in the Bering. The global
models are in good agreement through 72 hrs with the placement of
the synoptic features and the development of new low east of Japan
over the Kuroshio Current. This pattern where the longwave trough
has dominated the Western/Central Bering and NW Pacific has been
going on for weeks now. The persistence of this pattern most
likely has been influencing the performance of the global models.
The one area of concern is the potential development of fog over
Southcentral. Typically, what the models struggle with is the
placement of fog in the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...  As of 1153z or 2:53 AM local, there was a ceiling of
2,000 feet observed at PANC and at 2,400 feet at Merrill Field.
This set up is not conducive for fog development. However, the
cigs have the potential to bounce around from 2,000 feet to 3,000
feet at PANC early this morning. As the day unfolds, the cigs are
expected to lift a bit and then VFR conditions will prevail for
the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today
through Wednesday night)...
The big story as we head through the next couple days will be
colder and drier conditions with strong winds across the Gulf and
strong gap winds along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound.
Starting with this morning, a weak upper level short-wave trough
moving over-top of and flattening a strong upper ridge, will pass
across interior Southcentral. This will produce some light snow,
mainly along west facing slopes of mountain ranges. Cold air
advection, which ensured behind a front that moved through the
region last evening, will continue across Southcentral and the
Gulf. This will lead to strengthening winds across the western
Gulf, Cook Inlet, and western Prince William Sound.

Meanwhile, a short-wave tracking eastward along the Aleutian
chain will lead to cyclogenesis over the North Pacific. While
this low will initially be quite weak, the short-wave will begin
to dig southeastward as an upstream ridge rapidly amplifies ahead
of a strong Northwest Pacific low. Thus, the low will deepen as
it passes to the south of Kodiak Island tonight then across the
southern Gulf on Wednesday. This will really tighten up pressure
gradients across the region. One last piece of the puzzle will be
the current storm over northern Alaska. As it exits eastward today
arctic air will pour in behind it. When the upper flow amplifies
Tuesday night and Wednesday this air will be forced southward
across Southcentral. The tight pressure gradients combined with
the cold air advection will lead to very strong gap winds along
the north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound, peaking most places
Wednesday through Wednesday night. Winds should then begin to
diminish on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A once powerful low is quickly moving into the North Slope, with
strong onshore winds slowly coming down as the pressure gradient
slackens this morning. The strongest winds remain over the Kusko
Delta, and they will remain so through the morning. High
temperatures will probably occur this morning across most of the
region with a slow drop in temperatures as colder air moves in
behind the low.

The flow will remain onshore for the next two days as a series of
low amplitude waves moves inland through Wednesday. None of the
disturbances look very well defined, with the best chances for
snow showers moving inland across the Kusko Delta and along the
mountains. The upper flow will become more northwesterly Wednesday
with a gradual drying. Wednesday night, high pressure builds in,
and with cold temps aloft in place, expect temperatures to plummet
back close to climatological norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Broad westerly flow with areas of snow showers have set up over
most of the open Bering Sea. A low will move into the Eastern
Aleutians today and tonight, bringing snow (with some mix today)
and possibly some blowing snow for favored channeled terrain. A
series of low amplitude disturbances will merge and amplify over
the Pribilof Islands, bringing increasing threats for light
accumulating snow with convective enhanced graupel also possible.
The low over the Eastern Aleutians and the associated upper trough
quickly move into the NPAC by Wednesday morning with tapering
snow threats.

Attention quickly turns to a powerful storm force low which will
move into the Western Bering/Aleutians Tue night through Wed
night. The strongest core of warm frontal SE winds and cold air
advection SW winds will remain over that region with much weaker
gales as the front moves east toward the eastern half of the
Bering Sea by Wed night. Winds may gust to 70 MPH at Shemya, but
no significant high winds are anticipated at this point.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

The period begins Thursday with a large intense low over the
western Bering Sea and another strong low southeast of the Gulf
of Alaska. Model guidance is in very good agreement for this
extended time frame lending higher confidence in the forecast for
the days 3 through 5 timeframe. Gale to storm force wind is likely with
the Bering storm Thursday and in advance of the front as it
progresses across the Bering Sea through Friday. Gales are likely
across the Gulf of Alaska Thursday, then expect benign
conditions, sub gales, throughout the Gulf of Alaska and adjacent
coastal areas.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The main message for the longer term is the continuation of a
very active weather pattern.

A large intense low in the western Bering Sea Thursday with the
associated front extending through the Bering Sea across the
eastern Aleutians will continue along the north to northeast
trajectory. This storm and front will produce gale to storm force
wind in the Bering Sea and along the Aleutians. The Front looks
to make landfall along the Bering Sea coast Thursday as it weakens
significantly. All the models are in general agreement with a
secondary trough that develops into a front Thursday with the
formation of a frontal low Thursday night. This is where there is
some disagreement in the model solutions with the GFS supporting a
stronger low than the EC. At this point we will lean toward the
EC solution maintaining continuity in the forecast until we see
more of a model push for the stronger frontal low solution.
Following this Bering Sea storm another compact strong low will
be heading toward the western Aleutians Friday. We will maintain
continuity here and stick with WPC and the EC as we progress
through the weekend. Early next week the models converge back into
better agreement bringing a moderate low into the Seward
Peninsula region.

Over the Gulf of Alaska and southern mainland the main driving
factor will be the low southeast of the Gulf of Alaska and high
pressure over the mainland Thursday. This combination will
support colder conditions over the southern mainland along with
moderate outflow wind through gaps in the coastal mountains. At
this point we expect temperatures to cool around 10 to 20 degrees
over much of the southern mainland Thursday and Friday. Heading
through the weekend warmer air will be pushed across the southern
mainland from the Bering resulting in warming temperatures around
10 to 15 degrees. The models are in generally good agreement
Sunday bringing a weak low into the northern Gulf of Alaska
followed by a weak ridge of high pressure Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 412 150 155 172 173 174 175 176 120 121 127 129 131
136 137 138 351. Storm 411 413 177 178 130 132 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
MARINE/LONG TERM...JW