Storm Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

347 
FZAK62 PAFC 151614 AAA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
814 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Updated zones 413 414

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160315-
814 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 958 mb low at 60N 175W moves to 59N 175E at 971 mb Wed morning 
before moving to 59N 174W at 984 mb Thu morning. A 987 mb low at 
51N 170E moves to 56N 169W at 968 mb Wed morning and then moves to
56N 165W at 977 mb Thu morning.

$$

PKZ411-160315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
814 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Widespread rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 19 to 24 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
814 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 40 to 55 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 26 to 37 ft subsiding to 18 to 27 ft in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. 
.WED...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
814 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 22 to 33 ft. Widespread rain
showers. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 70 kt except 40 to 55 kt south of 54N. Seas 24 
to 36 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 25 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 19 to 23 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
814 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 40 kt becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 19 to 33 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 50 to 65 kt after 
midnight. N of 57N, S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft building
to 16 to 31 ft after midnight. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 30 to 40 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 16 to 31 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. 
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

231 
FZAK62 PAFC 152343
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161300-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low exits the northwest Bering Tue evening. A 969 mb low
at 55N 178E moves to 59N 170W at 973 mb by Wed afternoon then
crosses the Alaska Peninsula near 58N 158W by Thu afternoon at 982
mb. 

$$

PKZ411-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Isolated thunderstorms
during the morning.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 29 ft. Isolated thunderstorms S of 57N. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 66 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 18 to 33 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.WED...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

540 
FZAK62 PAFC 161155
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170130-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 56N 169W moves to 58N 159W at 980 mb Wed night
before moving inland Thu morning. A 974 mb low at 58N 168W moves 
to 58N 165W at 977 mb Thu morning before moving to 57N 157W at 986
mb Fri morning. A 984 mb low at 58N 175E Thu morning moves to 57N
177W at 985 mb Fri morning. A 999 mb low at 48N 171E Thu night 
moves to 49N 176W at 991 mb Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

005 
FZAK62 PAFC 162340
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171345-
340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 mb low at 59N 170W moves over the Alaska Peninsula to merge
with a Gulf of Alaska low for Fri afternoon. Its front pushes 
into Western Alaska by Fri afternoon. A 980 mb low near 59N 173E 
moves to 58N 177W at 986 mb for Fri afternoon. Its front swings 
into the Central Aleutians and Bering through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming 20 kt after midnight.
Seas
7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
340 PM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain showers.
Isolated thunderstorms in the evening.
.THU...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 PM AKDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Two major systems continue to dominate the active weather pattern
across the domain today. The first is out of the Bering in what
is left of the former Typhoon Hagibis. The second is a deepening
low drifting to the south out of the Gulf of AK. Much of mainland
Alaska remains under the influence of high pressure in between
these two systems leaving sensible weather mostly dry, cool, and
quiet.

Over the Bering, the low that was formerly Hagibis is nearing
peak intensity. It is sitting in the favored left exit region of a
strong 150 kt jet at 300mb (30,000'). The lowest recorded central
pressure to this point has been 956.3 mb on buoy 46035. Models
show the potential for it to deepen a bit more this afternoon
dropping as low as 950 mb, but it may miss any platform that could
sample the deepest value. Winds have peaked between 70-80 mph so
far, mostly along the Western Aleutians.

The other system moving into the North Pacific has completely
occluded on satellite this afternoon. It is spinning some cold air
and some upper level energy around its center. We will monitor its
associated front for the possible formation of smaller
circulations.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models continue to do a fine job with the overall synoptic
pattern. There is high confidence in this portion of the forecast.
However, there are discrepancies in the finer details the could
prove to be important. The first of these is regarding the
"trailing" low coming into the Western Bering quickly on the heels
of Hagibis. By Tue afternoon, a compact, but strong low will
quickly traverse along the Aleutian Chain. The forecast models now
seem in much better agreement with this system than 24 hours ago.
It is worth noting that the ECMWF was the first to catch onto it.
This forecast package will trend towards a stronger, consolidated
low that could impact the Pribilof Islands. The other uncertain
arena is across the Northern Gulf of AK. The forecast models
continue to really struggle with some smaller circulations
wrapping through that area from east to west. The GFS has been the
most aggressive with this feature, but it has backed off (and
dropped further south) on recent runs. This will be watched
closely as it could bring some light snowfall to portions of the
Western Prince William Sound and possibly as far west as Anchorage
Wed morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Monday
night through Thursday)...

High pressure exists over the mainland while low pressure spins in
the Gulf of Alaska. Movement of air flowing from high pressure to
low pressure is keeping gusty offshore flow through gaps and
passes in Southcentral and keeping conditions generally cold and
dry for the mainland. Offshore, the low in the gulf is creating
gale force winds over marine areas.

One interesting aspect of the forecast is a weak low pressure that
will generate along the gulf coast late tomorrow into Wednesday.
This will bring precipitation to the eastern Kenai Peninsula and
move northwest toward the Anchorage area overnight. As of now, it
looks like the cold dry air in place will keep any precipitation
out of Anchorage, with the low stopping short around Whittier. If
things do change any precipitation that reaches Anchorage will
fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. However, the chance of this
happening is slim and any accumulation will not amount to much.
Models are still figuring this system out though, so it bears
watching the next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Thursday evening)

A fairly strong front associated with post tropical cyclone
Hagibis will approach the coast this evening, with widespread
rainfall developing along it. This front will weaken as it pushes
inland overnight and through the day Wednesday morning, as it
outruns the better upper-level support.

Then, another front approaches the coast by Wednesday afternoon,
as another storm system slides across the central Bering and
through the AKPEN. Widespread rainfall will once again develop
along and ahead of this feature, with coastal communities seeing
the best potential for more rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...
(Tonight through Thursday evening)

The tale of two storms best sums up the weather for the region.
Currently, the remnants of Super Typhoon Hagibis have helped
initiate rapid cyclogenesis, with the low forecast to bottom out
around 950 mb later this evening. Given a long fetch length and
hurricane force sustained winds expected, wave heights will
continue to build. This has already been observed, with buoy 46070
showing a 5 foot increase during the last 3 hours. This will
continue through the evening, with maximum wave heights of 45 to
50 feet expected. As for the winds, earlier this morning winds
near Adak were gusting to just shy of 80 mph, with current
observations showing gusts near 60 mph across the central
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. These winds will gradually
diminish for the Aleutian chain, with it taking longer to subside
for St. Paul and St. George Islands, as they'll remain closer to
the storm for a longer duration.

Then, as one storm exits the region to our north, a new system
quickly moves in on its heels. This next feature will be much
more compact in size, but it'll also tap colder air aloft that
will get ingested into the storm from Siberia. This allows for a
much steeper lapse rate environment to develop. As a result, we
expect the precipitation to have a more vigorous showery type of
appearance. The models also show some modest instability
developing, with lifted indices down to -2 and SBCAPEs of 150 to
300 J/kg. This should be sufficient for some isolated
thunderstorms to develop.

The bigger story will be a return of sustained storm force winds
for a good portion of the Bering Sea, with some winds reaching
hurricane force near the southern flank of the low. Given the more
compact nature, wave heights are anticipated to be lower, as they
top out around 35 feet.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Models continue to show discrepancies for
the synoptic setup in the Bering in the Thursday timeframe. In any
case, there continues to be indication that a double barrel low
will set up in the Bering, with one center near Cape Newenham and
the other center in the northeast Bering. It's tough to say which
will be stronger, but models have shown a slight trend deepening
the Bristol Bay/Cape Newenham low. This would likely result in
some gales in the southern Bering and eastern Aleutians Thursday.
Expect mixed seas with combined wave height in the 15 to 20 foot
range... subsiding Friday. A series of disturbances will likely
rotate around the northeast Bering low, thus areas of showers and
small craft advisory conditions are likely through the end of the
week.

Gulf of Alaska: An upper low will cross the AKPEN Thursday and a
surface low will develop near Kodiak Island. The range of
solutions is a bit broader than ideal... the main question is how
far north the low propagates. It's possible that it will bring
gales to the southern outer waters Thursday. Or, it could track
far enough south that stronger winds will be concentrated in the
North Pacific. Either way, elevated winds are likely out of
Kamishak Bay as pressure drops in the Gulf. The pattern looks
generally benign in the Gulf by Saturday, but model discrepancies
compound so it will be important to monitor the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Details in the long term remain murky, as models continue to
struggle with the preceding evolution of post-Typhoon Hagibis.
However, there are some general trends apparent. Low pressure is
likely to settle in the Bering Sea (or perhaps centered off the
west coast) through early next week, and cold air advection in
north flow around the west side of the low will continue showery
unstable conditions over the Bering/Aleutians. The location of the
low center is uncertain, but if it sets up near the west coast,
precipitation and increased southwest winds are likely in its
southern periphery. High pressure in the low levels will persist
over northeastern Alaska, leading to cold, generally dry
conditions inland. However, enhanced cyclogenesis is likely as
modified cold, dry air originating in eastern Siberia spills into
the North Pacific. Thus, expect a series of lows to approach the
Gulf from the west. This will likely bring precipitation and
increased cloud cover to the North Gulf Coast, possibly making it
inland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 412
		 Storm Warning: 173, 177-179, 181, 185 411, 413, 414.
 		 Gale Warning: 131, 132, 138, 155, 165, 170-172, 174-176, 180,
					   351, 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM