Hurricane Force Wind Warning 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

231 
FZAK62 PAFC 152343
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161300-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 962 mb low exits the northwest Bering Tue evening. A 969 mb low
at 55N 178E moves to 59N 170W at 973 mb by Wed afternoon then
crosses the Alaska Peninsula near 58N 158W by Thu afternoon at 982
mb. 

$$

PKZ411-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 24 ft. Isolated thunderstorms
during the morning.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...STORM WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W 40 to 55 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 28 ft. Widespread rain showers. 
.WED...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 29 ft. Isolated thunderstorms S of 57N. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 50 to 66 kt. Seas 22 to 37 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 21 to 31 ft. Rain showers. Isolated
thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161300-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt increasing to 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 21 ft building to 18 to 33 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.WED...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 35 to 50 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 19 to 34 ft. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

540 
FZAK62 PAFC 161155
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170130-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 969 mb low at 56N 169W moves to 58N 159W at 980 mb Wed night
before moving inland Thu morning. A 974 mb low at 58N 168W moves 
to 58N 165W at 977 mb Thu morning before moving to 57N 157W at 986
mb Fri morning. A 984 mb low at 58N 175E Thu morning moves to 57N
177W at 985 mb Fri morning. A 999 mb low at 48N 171E Thu night 
moves to 49N 176W at 991 mb Fri morning.

$$

PKZ411-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 16 to 29 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 31 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170130-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
355 AM AKDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 33 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong 958 mb low (remnant Hagibis) centered west of St.
Matthew Island continues to slowly move northward. This low has
brought hurricane force gusts and high seas to the Bering waters
overnight. A front associated with this low has stalled along the
Southwest coast, inhibited from moving inland by a persistent area
of high pressure in place over the Mainland. Behind the low, cold
air is streaming in from the northwest. Meanwhile over the Gulf,
a complex low has brought gusty easterly winds and rain to Kodiak
Island. An inverted trough associated with this low has begun to
lift northward and is approaching the northern Gulf coast this
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast models continue to be in good agreement regarding the
overall synoptic pattern. Disagreement arises by Wednesday when
model solutions differ on the location of several smaller
circulations over the Gulf of Alaska and their arrival into
Southcentral. Meanwhile over the Bering, a second strong low moves
in Tuesday night. Models struggle to agree on the strength and
track of this low, though current thinking is the low center will
traverse the Pribilof Islands late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Outflow and gap winds are expected to diminish across Southcentral
today as pressure gradients relax. Broad cyclonic upper level flow
over the NE Pacific/Gulf will continue a support a series of lows
which will generally drift across the Gulf. Positioning of
centers and intensity will be somewhat problematic. However, while
there are differences, common ground can be be found with NE to
NW gales over the western and northern Gulf today and weakening
tonight. Gales will redevelop across the southwestern Gulf
Wednesday afternoon/night as the next front moves in from the
west. Precipitation will spread west across the northern and
western Gulf today with rain at most sea level locations and mix
or snow at higher elevations over the mainland coastal mountains.
Overrunning snow potential across the Chugach into the Matanuska
Valley/Anchorage Bowl on Wednesday morning looks fairly weak.
However, could not rule out flurries or some very light snow
during the morning hours which would then mix with rain during
the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Precipitation from the frontal boundary has been detected on the
radars at Bethel (PABC) and King Salmon (PAKC) this morning. The
front spans from Hooper Bay to Pilot Point. The models bring the
boundary inland today with light rain making it to Bethel and
Levelock. However, the front loses momentum. A second frontal
boundary will move into the region early Wednesday. Widespread
rainfall is anticipated with coastal communities receiving the
lion's share of the moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

This morning the surface low anchoring the remnants of Hagibis is
west of St. Matthew Island with an estimated pressure of 958mb.
The models show the surface low moving westward into NE Russia.
The surface low will weaken and the northern portion of the
frontal boundary will undergo the process of frontolysis. The
longwave trough over the Bering has several impulses of shortwave
energy embedded. A second surge of energy will create a new wave
along the baroclinic zone near the western Aleutians. This new low
will undergo a period of rapid intensification today. The new
surface low will track over the Pribilof Islands tonight bringing
another round of strong winds and rough seas. As the forecast
period unfolds, the low will push into western Alaska on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5)...

Bering Sea/Aleutians: Models continue to show discrepancies for
the synoptic setup in the Bering in the Thursday timeframe. In any
case, there continues to be indication that a double barrel low
will set up in the Bering, with one center near Cape Newenham and
the other center in the northeast Bering. It's tough to say which
will be stronger, but models have shown a slight trend deepening
the Bristol Bay/Cape Newenham low. This would likely result in
some gales in the southern Bering and eastern Aleutians Thursday.
Expect mixed seas with combined wave height in the 15 to 20 foot
range... subsiding Friday. A series of disturbances will likely
rotate around the northeast Bering low, thus areas of showers and
small craft advisory conditions are likely through the end of the
week.

Gulf of Alaska: An upper low will cross the AKPEN Thursday and a
surface low will develop near Kodiak Island. The range of
solutions is a bit broader than ideal... the main question is how
far north the low propagates. It's possible that it will bring
gales to the southern outer waters Thursday. Or, it could track
far enough south that stronger winds will be concentrated in the
North Pacific. Either way, elevated winds are likely out of
Kamishak Bay as pressure drops in the Gulf. The pattern looks
generally benign in the Gulf by Saturday, but model discrepancies
compound so it will be important to monitor the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Details in the long term remain murky, as models continue to
struggle with the preceding evolution of post-Typhoon Hagibis.
However, there are some general trends apparent. Low pressure is
likely to settle in the Bering Sea (or perhaps centered off the
west coast) through early next week, and cold air advection in
north flow around the west side of the low will continue showery
unstable conditions over the Bering/Aleutians. The location of the
low center is uncertain, but if it sets up near the west coast,
precipitation and increased southwest winds are likely in its
southern periphery. High pressure in the low levels will persist
over northeastern Alaska, leading to cold, generally dry
conditions inland. However, enhanced cyclogenesis is likely as
modified cold, dry air originating in eastern Siberia spills into
the North Pacific. Thus, expect a series of lows to approach the
Gulf from the west. This will likely bring precipitation and
increased cloud cover to the North Gulf Coast, possibly making it
inland.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch: 195.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 177-179, 185, 412, 413, 414.
Gale Warning: 119, 120, 131, 132, 150, 155, 160, 165, 170-176,
180, 351, 352, 411.
. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
MARINE/LONG TERM...MM