Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Convective potential/severity and the heat are the main concerns
in the short term. Forecast challenges continue tonight thru the
weekend in an active pattern. Quieter weather is expected next
week.

An MCV, formed from convection last night on the high Plains, is
currently advancing east over north central Oklahoma. Ahead of
this feature, a couple of surface boundaries are noted. The
boundary that entered our area yesterday has retreated north into
southeast KS, while another subtle boundary, noted by moisture
pooling and very high heat indices to its south, lies near the
highway 412 corridor. Storms have developed along the southern
boundary and ahead of the MCV. Given very high instability, some
severe hail/wind storms are expected. Our area remains displaced
to the south of the stronger flow aloft south of an upper low
over Nebraska/Iowa, which will probably limit the overall severe
threat. Storms in advance of the MCV should continue east
northeast this afternoon and into the evening across NE OK and
eventually into NW AR. Other storms will fire to our north across
eastern KS/MO tonight as warm advection increases with the LLJ to
the north of the southeast KS front. These storms are expected to
eventually work their way southeast toward northern AR late
tonight into Friday as the upper flow gradually veers to the
northwest on the back side of the upper low to the north.

Storm potential will continue Friday and Friday night, focused
mainly on another cold front which will be dropping down into the
region. We should see a relative lull in the action by Saturday
afternoon as this boundary moves to our south.

The next system in the southern stream will move across the
central part of the country Sunday and Monday, and will bring yet
another round of showers and storms, along with locally heavy
rainfall, to the region. A cold front will slide thru the region
on Monday, with rain chances coming to an end by Monday night as
the humidity gets shoved out of our area. Looks like another
front slides thru Tuesday night as well, though this one will
likely slide thru dry. Several days of below average temps and dry
weather are expected next week, as an amplified upper pattern
develops with troughing over the eastern CONUS.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  92  71  91 /  30  40  30  10
FSM   75  91  74  90 /  50  50  50  30
MLC   75  93  72  90 /  40  40  50  30
BVO   71  90  67  90 /  50  30  20  10
FYV   72  87  67  87 /  60  50  40  10
BYV   72  86  68  88 /  70  60  40  10
MKO   74  91  72  89 /  40  50  40  20
MIO   71  88  68  89 /  70  50  20  10
F10   73  92  71  89 /  30  40  40  20
HHW   76  94  73  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma .
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Portions of Eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex moved into northeast Oklahoma this Afternoon from
central Oklahoma and intensified as it moved into the unstable airmass in
place across the region. Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to
spread to the east across northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas
late this afternoon into the evening hours. Wind gusts of around 60 mph
and large hail will be possible. Very heavy rain is also occurring with the
strongest storms and training of storms is occurring in the Tulsa metro area.
2 to 5 inches of rain will be possible in a short period of time with the
strongest storms. This will lead to flash flooding of low lying areas.

Outside of the rain areas across northeast Oklahoma, the heat is a big story
with heat index values of 105 to 110 across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
west-central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Friday, and again later in the weekend and into the early part of
the next work week as a series of storm systems affect eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The best chance of thunderstorms
will be on Sunday into Sunday night as a strong cold front and
associated upper level storm system move through the region.

Drier and cooler weather is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
08/16/2018                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING NEAR 31ST AND PEORIA IN
            TULSA.

&&

SJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
512 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
08/16/2018                   TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NORTH BOUND LANES FLOODED NEAR 87TH ST S AND YALE AVE.

&&

JBM

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