Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Convective potential/severity and the heat are the main concerns
in the short term. Forecast challenges continue tonight thru the
weekend in an active pattern. Quieter weather is expected next
week.

An MCV, formed from convection last night on the high Plains, is
currently advancing east over north central Oklahoma. Ahead of
this feature, a couple of surface boundaries are noted. The
boundary that entered our area yesterday has retreated north into
southeast KS, while another subtle boundary, noted by moisture
pooling and very high heat indices to its south, lies near the
highway 412 corridor. Storms have developed along the southern
boundary and ahead of the MCV. Given very high instability, some
severe hail/wind storms are expected. Our area remains displaced
to the south of the stronger flow aloft south of an upper low
over Nebraska/Iowa, which will probably limit the overall severe
threat. Storms in advance of the MCV should continue east
northeast this afternoon and into the evening across NE OK and
eventually into NW AR. Other storms will fire to our north across
eastern KS/MO tonight as warm advection increases with the LLJ to
the north of the southeast KS front. These storms are expected to
eventually work their way southeast toward northern AR late
tonight into Friday as the upper flow gradually veers to the
northwest on the back side of the upper low to the north.

Storm potential will continue Friday and Friday night, focused
mainly on another cold front which will be dropping down into the
region. We should see a relative lull in the action by Saturday
afternoon as this boundary moves to our south.

The next system in the southern stream will move across the
central part of the country Sunday and Monday, and will bring yet
another round of showers and storms, along with locally heavy
rainfall, to the region. A cold front will slide thru the region
on Monday, with rain chances coming to an end by Monday night as
the humidity gets shoved out of our area. Looks like another
front slides thru Tuesday night as well, though this one will
likely slide thru dry. Several days of below average temps and dry
weather are expected next week, as an amplified upper pattern
develops with troughing over the eastern CONUS.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  92  71  91 /  30  40  30  10
FSM   75  91  74  90 /  50  50  50  30
MLC   75  93  72  90 /  40  40  50  30
BVO   71  90  67  90 /  50  30  20  10
FYV   72  87  67  87 /  60  50  40  10
BYV   72  86  68  88 /  70  60  40  10
MKO   74  91  72  89 /  40  50  40  20
MIO   71  88  68  89 /  70  50  20  10
F10   73  92  71  89 /  30  40  40  20
HHW   76  94  73  93 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057-
     059>062-064>068-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
129 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
129 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Most of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed to the west of the area this
afternoon.
This activity, along with additional development will likely move
into parts of eastern Oklahoma, and possibly northwest Arkansas
this evening. Forecast instability and wind shear are sufficient
to support some severe storms, with damaging winds gusts and
locally heavy rainfall being the main threats. Uncertainty remains
as to how far east the severe weather risk will translate during
the evening and overnight hours, so stay aware of the latest
updates.

Afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 90s along with high
humidity will result in heat index values between 100-110 degrees
across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. A heat
advisory is in effect until 7 pm for most of eastern Oklahoma, and
west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Friday, and again later in the weekend and into the early part of
the next work week as a series of storm systems affect eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The best chance of thunderstorms
will be on Sunday into Sunday night as a strong cold front and
associated upper level storm system move through the region.

Drier and cooler weather is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
440 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

OKZ054-055-060-061-162215-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Washington OK-
440 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 440 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles north of Wynona to 8 miles west of Skiatook.
Movement was northeast at 80 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Owasso...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Hominy...                         Barnsdall...
Sperry...                         Wynona...
Ochelata...                       Avant...
Vera...                           Osage...
Turley...                         Tallant...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Wolco...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3621 9571 3627 9639 3652 9665 3672 9607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 245DEG 70KT 3658 9634 3634 9615