Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1216 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Thunder chances with MVFR vsbys and MVFR/VFR cigs will increase
across northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon. Later this evening
Storm activity will increase, with best chances across the far NW
AR sites as a cold front approaches. Some of this activity make
move south and impact KFSM after 06z. Otherwise, VFR elements to
prevail outside of thunderstorm periods.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1019 AM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
MCV to the west and cold front to the north will set the stage for
scattered thunderstorms, especially along and north of Interstate
40 this afternoon. Chance pops for the afternoon look good at
this time per latest hi res solutions, so will leave as they are
for now. Temperatures are also tracking towards advertised high
temperatures and are supported by area 12z soundings. Current heat
advisory will be left as is also, but will revisit early
afternoon and add zones if needed.

No update planned at this time.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
129 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
129 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Most of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed to the west of the area this
afternoon.
This activity, along with additional development will likely move
into parts of eastern Oklahoma, and possibly northwest Arkansas
this evening. Forecast instability and wind shear are sufficient
to support some severe storms, with damaging winds gusts and
locally heavy rainfall being the main threats. Uncertainty remains
as to how far east the severe weather risk will translate during
the evening and overnight hours, so stay aware of the latest
updates.

Afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 90s along with high
humidity will result in heat index values between 100-110 degrees
across much of eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. A heat
advisory is in effect until 7 pm for most of eastern Oklahoma, and
west central Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Friday, and again later in the weekend and into the early part of
the next work week as a series of storm systems affect eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The best chance of thunderstorms
will be on Sunday into Sunday night as a strong cold front and
associated upper level storm system move through the region.

Drier and cooler weather is expected by Tuesday and Wednesday as
high pressure builds into the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
200 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

OKZ054-059-064-161930-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
200 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OSAGE...NORTH
CENTRAL CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Terlton, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mannford...                       Westport...
Terlton...                        Walnut Creek State Park...

LAT...LON 3634 9627 3616 9622 3616 9630 3613 9630
      3611 9649 3623 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 255DEG 13KT 3619 9642

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

OKZ060-067-161945-
Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
216 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located 4 miles east of
Oneta and 4 miles north of Stonebluff.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Broken Arrow...                   Coweta...
Stonebluff...                     Oneta...
Redbird...                        Leonard...

LAT...LON 3610 9557 3609 9555 3609 9556 3608 9558
      3607 9557 3608 9544 3607 9539 3588 9559
      3589 9586 3611 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 270DEG 15KT 3603 9563 3594 9575

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
225 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

OKZ059-060-064-162000-
Tulsa OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
225 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN
PAWNEE AND CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located near Keystone State
Park and 4 miles northwest of Jenks Riverside Airport. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Bixby...                          Jenks...
Mannford...                       Westport...
Keystone State Park...            Jenks Riverside Airport...
Gray...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 213 and 230.

LAT...LON 3625 9636 3623 9633 3623 9625 3621 9624
      3620 9624 3617 9627 3616 9627 3616 9600
      3618 9600 3614 9582 3600 9587 3604 9629
      3625 9638
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 279DEG 29KT 3614 9626 3607 9606