Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 431
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 30, 2018, 9:47 PM CST for 9 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 30, 2018, 9:47 PM CST (03:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 1, 2018, 2:51 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 55 kt
All 34 counties
Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 5%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 20%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
26 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 9:55 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ICT | Chautauqua, Elk, Montgomery | 29 min |
| Nov 30, 10:11 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ICT | Elk, Labette, Montgomery, Wilson | 35 min |
| Nov 30, 10:33 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ICT | Labette, Neosho, Wilson | 42 min |
| Nov 30, 10:57 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ICT | Allen, Woodson | 48 min |
| Nov 30, 11:02 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford | 43 min |
| Nov 30, 11:35 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Jasper, McDonald, Newton | 40 min |
| Nov 30, 11:40 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Bourbon, Crawford | 50 min |
| Dec 1, 12:04 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Christian, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton and 1 more | 41 min |
| Dec 1, 12:25 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Cedar, Dade, St. Clair, Vernon | 65 min |
| Dec 1, 12:34 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Christian, Lawrence, Stone | 26 min |
| Dec 1, 12:36 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Greene, Taney | 39 min |
| Dec 1, 12:47 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Christian, Greene | 28 min |
| Dec 1, 12:56 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Ozark | 64 min |
| Dec 1, 12:59 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Hickory, Polk | 61 min |
| Dec 1, 1:02 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dallas, Webster | 58 min |
| Dec 1, 1:04 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Christian, Greene, Webster | 26 min |
| Dec 1, 1:23 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Dallas, Greene, Webster | 18 min |
| Dec 1, 1:24 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Laclede, Wright | 54 min |
| Dec 1, 1:30 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Webster, Wright | 30 min |
| Dec 1, 1:33 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Howell, Texas | 57 min |
| Dec 1, 1:56 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Howell, Shannon, Texas | 23 min |
| Dec 1, 1:58 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Oregon, Shannon | 49 min |
| Dec 1, 2:05 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Texas | 8 min |
| Dec 1, 2:10 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Shannon, Texas | 20 min |
| Dec 1, 2:12 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dent, Maries, Phelps | 63 min |
| Dec 1, 2:15 AM CST | Tornado Warning | SGF | Shannon | 30 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 202 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -93 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 687 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 241 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 266 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.6
The text
As transmitted.
097 WWUS20 KWNS 010344 SEL1 SPC WW 010344 KSZ000-MOZ000-011100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of southeast Kansas southwest and south central Missouri * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 945 PM until 500 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to shift northeast out of Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southern Missouri over the next few hours. Hail and a few damaging wind gusts are expected, along with potential for a brief tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Chanute KS to 40 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 9:12 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Elk, Greenwood and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 30, 11:20 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Neosho | 85 min |
| Dec 1, 12:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Oregon and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 1, 3:25 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dunklin, Pemiscot | 2 hr |
| Dec 1, 1:48 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Pike, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis | 117 min |
| Dec 1, 2:16 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Lincoln, Pike | 7 hr |
| Nov 30, 6:17 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | McCurtain | 58 min |
| Nov 30, 6:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 44 more | 85 min |
| Nov 30, 6:40 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | McCurtain | 7 hr |
| Nov 30, 9:02 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | McCurtain | 58 min |
| Nov 30, 9:52 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig and 19 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.