Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 431

November 30, 20189 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 30, 2018, 9:47 PM CST for 9 counties in Kansas; 25 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 30, 2018, 9:47 PM CST (03:47 UTC)
Expired
Dec 1, 2018, 2:51 AM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
55 kt
All 34 counties

Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
5%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

26 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 9:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTChautauqua, Elk, Montgomery29 min
Nov 30, 10:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTElk, Labette, Montgomery, Wilson35 min
Nov 30, 10:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTLabette, Neosho, Wilson42 min
Nov 30, 10:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningICTAllen, Woodson48 min
Nov 30, 11:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford43 min
Nov 30, 11:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFJasper, McDonald, Newton40 min
Nov 30, 11:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBourbon, Crawford50 min
Dec 1, 12:04 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Christian, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton and 1 more41 min
Dec 1, 12:25 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCedar, Dade, St. Clair, Vernon65 min
Dec 1, 12:34 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFChristian, Lawrence, Stone26 min
Dec 1, 12:36 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Greene, Taney39 min
Dec 1, 12:47 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFChristian, Greene28 min
Dec 1, 12:56 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark64 min
Dec 1, 12:59 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHickory, Polk61 min
Dec 1, 1:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDallas, Webster58 min
Dec 1, 1:04 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFChristian, Greene, Webster26 min
Dec 1, 1:23 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFDallas, Greene, Webster18 min
Dec 1, 1:24 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFLaclede, Wright54 min
Dec 1, 1:30 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFWebster, Wright30 min
Dec 1, 1:33 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Texas57 min
Dec 1, 1:56 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFHowell, Shannon, Texas23 min
Dec 1, 1:58 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOregon, Shannon49 min
Dec 1, 2:05 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFTexas8 min
Dec 1, 2:10 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFShannon, Texas20 min
Dec 1, 2:12 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDent, Maries, Phelps63 min
Dec 1, 2:15 AM CSTTornado WarningSGFShannon30 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2018-12-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 202 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2018-12-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 241 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
202 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-93 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
687 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
241 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
266 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

097 
WWUS20 KWNS 010344
SEL1  
SPC WW 010344
KSZ000-MOZ000-011100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
945 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  southeast Kansas
  southwest and south central Missouri

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 945 PM
  until 500 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to shift northeast out
of Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southern Missouri over the
next few hours.  Hail and a few damaging wind gusts are expected,
along with potential for a brief tornado or two.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Chanute
KS to 40 miles southeast of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...WW 430...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Goss

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 9:12 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Elk, Greenwood and 5 more2 hr
Nov 30, 11:20 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Neosho85 min
Dec 1, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Oregon and 9 more2 hr
Dec 1, 3:25 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDunklin, Pemiscot2 hr
Dec 1, 1:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPike, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis117 min
Dec 1, 2:16 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCLincoln, Pike7 hr
Nov 30, 6:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain58 min
Nov 30, 6:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 44 more85 min
Nov 30, 6:40 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain7 hr
Nov 30, 9:02 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain58 min
Nov 30, 9:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig and 19 more83 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.