Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1027 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

The main focus over the next six hours will be a band of
thunderstorms tracking out of eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. These
storms are developing along and ahead of a surface trough as
strong upper level energy tracks east across the central and
southern Plains.

We continue to believe that a combination of line segments and a
few supercells will impact extreme southeastern Kansas and
southern Missouri overnight. The greatest threat for severe storms
will occur generally near and south of Highway 60 as a warm front
lifts north into this region.

While instability will remain somewhat limited, areas of far
southern Missouri will likely see MLCAPE values approach 1000
J/kg south of that warm front. With strong low level wind shear in
place, all modes of severe weather will remain possible across
extreme southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri including the
threat for isolated tornadoes given strong low level wind shear.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Currently across the area, dense fog had cleared most locations by
midday, but was still holding on at the West Plains observation
site as of 2 pm. The dense fog areas are fairly localized right
now. The clearing over some locations in the west have climb into
the mid 60s. Some low 70s temperatures were in east central
Oklahoma. Dewpoints were in the 50s. A special 18z soundings at
SGF shows a large cap MU CINH (-93). Water vapor imagery shows the
base of a negatively tilted trough shifting east over New Mexico
early this afternoon. Surface low pressure was strengthening over
the southern high plains.

Our main focus in the short term will be with severe weather
potential this evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

MU CAPE is progged to continue increasing from the southwest into
the southwest portion of the CWA late this afternoon and evening
with significant shear values over the entire CWA. CAPE is
expected to remain elevated through most of the evening with a
significant thermal cap in place. Elevated storms are expected to
break out over the southwest portion of the CWA between 6 and 9 pm
and rapidly spreading northeast across the remainder of the CWA
during the evening. Because of the high deep layer shear and
decent elevated CAPE, large hail and damaging straight line winds
will be the primary severe weather risks. Forecast soundings do
show the cap eroding and the potential for some surface based CAPE
near the back edge of the expected convection, so there would be a
very limited risk of an isolated tornado by late evening into the
early part of the overnight hours over the southwest portion of
the CWA.

Have increased the winds over the area for both tonight and on
Saturday as the strong low pressure system moves into and out of
the area. The bulk of the precipitation will have moved out of the
CWA by 12z Sat. The main area of precipitation with the surface
low on Saturday should be north and northwest of the area.
Temperatures on Saturday will be warmest in the east with
generally steady or slowly falling temperatures during the day in
the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

The bigger push of cold air will not arrive until Sunday though
and we should remain above freezing until Sunday night. Can't rule
out a few flurries or light precipitation in our far northern
counties Sunday night as upper energy pushes across the region,
but nothing measurable is expected. The cold air will continue to
dive south into the region with highs on Monday in the mid 30s to
low 40s and lows monday night from the mid 20s to around 30. Even
colder temperatures are expected by Tuesday night as the Canadian
surface high pressure system moves closer to directly over the
region and temperatures should dip into the teens to mid 20s. A
recovery in temperatures is expected by the end of the week with
the high pushing to the east. Potential fly in the
ointment...ECMWF showing precipitation lifting back into the area
late Thursday into Thursday night with the surface ridge to the
east and more of a southwesterly flow aloft. GFS not showing any
precipitation yet during this time frame, but will need this
carefully as the cold air will be shallow at this time frame. For
now we are carrying low end pops with rain/snow wording.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

An area of showers and thunderstorms will move east across
southern Missouri overnight. MVFR and IFR conditions can be
expected along with locally strong wind gusts.

VFR will then return to the region late tonight and for most of
Saturday morning before MVFR ceilings return by afternoon. Brisk
and gusty southwest winds can be expected on Saturday with gusts
of 25-35 knots.

The MVFR will then clear out of southern Missouri later Saturday
evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
626 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
626 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Significant fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Locally dense fog can be expected tonight as a warm front
  lifts north through the area. The greatest chance for dense
  fog will be across south-central Missouri.

  An intense storm system will approach the Ozarks this evening
  bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to
  the  area. The main severe weather chances will be this
  evening and overnight, along and south of a Pittsburg, Kansas
  to West Plains, Missouri line.

  The primary threats will be damaging winds in excess of
  60 mph and large hail to the size of half dollars. Isolated
  tornadoes will be possible, mainly near and south of the
  Highway 60 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Non thunderstorm wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected on
  Saturday.

  Light snow is possible Sunday night into Monday morning. No
  accumulations are expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
  portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and southwestern
  Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SKIDMORE                37.24N 94.83W
11/30/2018                   CHEROKEE           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THREE POWER POLES DOWN SEVEN MILES NORTH OF
            COLUMBUS ALONG NW40TH SCAMMON ROAD..

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
103 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S HIGHLANDVILLE       36.92N 93.28W
12/01/2018  E60 MPH          CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE REPUBLIC          37.14N 93.45W
12/01/2018                   GREENE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            ROOF DAMAGE TO HOME. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
115 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1243 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BILLINGS                37.07N 93.55W
12/01/2018                   CHRISTIAN          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN AND
            DEBRIS NEAR HIGHWAY 60 AND WASHINGTON AVE.
            TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.

&&

JLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
117 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE WILLARD           37.24N 93.39W
12/01/2018  M68 MPH          GREENE             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF POWER POLES DOWN IN SPRINGFIELD.
            NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

&&

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
120 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S AURORA              36.95N 93.72W
12/01/2018                   LAWRENCE           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO HOTEL IN AURORA. POSSIBLE
            INJURIES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JLR