Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 430
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 30, 2018, 6:40 PM CST for 69 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 30, 2018, 6:40 PM CST (00:40 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 1, 2018, 2:00 AM CST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 85 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 40%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 20%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
28 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 7:09 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Johnson, Newton | 51 min |
| Nov 30, 7:16 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Baxter, Marion, Searcy | 46 min |
| Nov 30, 10:29 PM CST | Tornado Warning | TSA | Benton | 20 min |
| Nov 30, 10:37 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Washington | 38 min |
| Nov 30, 10:38 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | McCurtain | 67 min |
| Nov 30, 10:50 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Sebastian | 55 min |
| Nov 30, 11:09 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Boone, Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope, Scott and 1 more | 66 min |
| Nov 30, 11:09 PM CST | Tornado Warning | TSA | Crawford | 21 min |
| Nov 30, 11:16 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian | 44 min |
| Nov 30, 11:19 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Madison, Washington | 56 min |
| Nov 30, 11:23 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus | 52 min |
| Nov 30, 11:25 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton, Washington | 51 min |
| Nov 30, 11:29 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Polk, Scott | 46 min |
| Nov 30, 11:51 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington | 41 min |
| Nov 30, 11:57 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Johnson, Logan, Pope | 18 min |
| Dec 1, 12:07 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Franklin, Wood | 38 min |
| Dec 1, 12:08 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Perry and 5 more | 52 min |
| Dec 1, 12:08 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Little River, Miller | 52 min |
| Dec 1, 12:14 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Garland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell | 46 min |
| Dec 1, 12:20 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Boone, Marion, Newton | 40 min |
| Dec 1, 12:52 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Baxter, Boone, Fulton, Izard, Marion, Searcy and 1 more | 38 min |
| Dec 1, 12:55 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Faulkner, Perry, Pulaski, Saline, Yell | 50 min |
| Dec 1, 12:55 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Hempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier | 35 min |
| Dec 1, 1:17 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada | 58 min |
| Dec 1, 1:23 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Independence, Jackson, Van Buren and 1 more | 52 min |
| Dec 1, 1:26 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Baxter, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Lawrence and 3 more | 49 min |
| Dec 1, 1:31 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Dallas, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring, Pike | 44 min |
| Dec 1, 1:51 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Faulkner, White, Woodruff | 39 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1122 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -12 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 611 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 44 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 191 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.9
- Supercell composite
- 5.4
The text
As transmitted.
362 WWUS20 KWNS 010038 SEL0 SPC WW 010038 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010800- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of much of Arkansas far southeastern Oklahoma parts of northeastern Texas * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 640 PM until 200 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing over the watch area at this time will continue to intensify over the next few hours, while additional strong/severe storms will move into the watch area from the west later this evening. Along with risk for hail and damaging winds, a few tornadoes are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west southwest of El Dorado AR to 5 miles east northeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Goss
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 6:17 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 47 more | 58 min |
| Nov 30, 9:02 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 50 more | 58 min |
| Nov 30, 11:20 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Carroll and 41 more | 85 min |
| Dec 1, 12:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 1, 1:58 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 33 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 1, 3:25 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Clay, Cleveland and 17 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 30, 6:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 44 more | 85 min |
| Nov 30, 9:52 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig and 19 more | 83 min |
| Nov 30, 10:32 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Burnet, Ellis, Falls, Freestone, Henderson and 8 more | 88 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2018Tornado Watches in Texas, 2018Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.