Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 430

November 30, 201869 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 15 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 30, 2018, 6:40 PM CST for 69 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 30, 2018, 6:40 PM CST (00:40 UTC)
Expired
Dec 1, 2018, 2:00 AM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 85 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Cross County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Pike County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
40%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

28 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 7:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Newton51 min
Nov 30, 7:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Marion, Searcy46 min
Nov 30, 10:29 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatTSABenton20 min
Nov 30, 10:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Washington38 min
Nov 30, 10:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVMcCurtain67 min
Nov 30, 10:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian55 min
Nov 30, 11:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope, Scott and 1 more66 min
Nov 30, 11:09 PM CSTTornado WarningTSACrawford21 min
Nov 30, 11:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian44 min
Nov 30, 11:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Madison, Washington56 min
Nov 30, 11:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVFranklin, Morris, Red River, Titus52 min
Nov 30, 11:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Washington51 min
Nov 30, 11:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk, Scott46 min
Nov 30, 11:51 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Carroll, Madison, Washington41 min
Nov 30, 11:57 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Pope18 min
Dec 1, 12:07 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVFranklin, Wood38 min
Dec 1, 12:08 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Perry and 5 more52 min
Dec 1, 12:08 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River, Miller52 min
Dec 1, 12:14 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell46 min
Dec 1, 12:20 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Marion, Newton40 min
Dec 1, 12:52 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Boone, Fulton, Izard, Marion, Searcy and 1 more38 min
Dec 1, 12:55 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Perry, Pulaski, Saline, Yell50 min
Dec 1, 12:55 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Sevier35 min
Dec 1, 1:17 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada58 min
Dec 1, 1:23 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Independence, Jackson, Van Buren and 1 more52 min
Dec 1, 1:26 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Cleburne, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Lawrence and 3 more49 min
Dec 1, 1:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Dallas, Garland, Grant, Hot Spring, Pike44 min
Dec 1, 1:51 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, White, Woodruff39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2018-12-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1122 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 00:00Z on 2018-12-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 201 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1122 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
611 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
191 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
5.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

362 
WWUS20 KWNS 010038
SEL0  
SPC WW 010038
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  much of Arkansas
  far southeastern Oklahoma
  parts of northeastern Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 640 PM
  until 200 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ongoing over the watch area at this time
will continue to intensify over the next few hours, while additional
strong/severe storms will move into the watch area from the west
later this evening.  Along with risk for hail and damaging winds, a
few tornadoes are also expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west southwest of El Dorado AR
to 5 miles east northeast of Flippin AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Goss

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 6:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 47 more58 min
Nov 30, 9:02 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 50 more58 min
Nov 30, 11:20 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Carroll and 41 more85 min
Dec 1, 12:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 58 more2 hr
Dec 1, 1:58 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 33 more5 hr
Dec 1, 3:25 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Clay, Cleveland and 17 more2 hr
Nov 30, 6:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 44 more85 min
Nov 30, 9:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig and 19 more83 min
Nov 30, 10:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Burnet, Ellis, Falls, Freestone, Henderson and 8 more88 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2018Tornado Watches in Texas, 2018Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.