Alert archive / Iowa / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 285

July 19, 201827 counties in Iowa; Clark County, Scotland County, Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 19, 2018, 3:11 PM CDT for 27 counties in Iowa; Clark County, Scotland County, Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 19, 2018, 3:11 PM CDT (20:11 UTC)
Expired
Jul 19, 2018, 9:37 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 29 counties

Appanoose County, IA, Benton County, IA, Davis County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 3:11 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXJasper34 min
Jul 19, 3:22 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXMarshall, Story38 min
Jul 19, 3:26 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXHamilton, Hardin, Marshall, Story34 min
Jul 19, 3:37 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion23 min
Jul 19, 3:40 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXFranklin, Hardin35 min
Jul 19, 3:54 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXGrundy, Hardin, Marshall, Story51 min
Jul 19, 3:54 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion36 min
Jul 19, 4:14 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXMahaska, Marion31 min
Jul 19, 4:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXMahaska42 min
Jul 19, 4:36 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXMahaska, Wapello24 min
Jul 19, 4:37 PM CDTTornado Warning EmergencyTornado observedCatastrophic damage threatDMXMarshall, Tama23 min
Jul 19, 4:52 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXMahaska, Wapello38 min
Jul 19, 4:52 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXMarshall, Poweshiek, Tama38 min
Jul 19, 4:54 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNKeokuk51 min
Jul 19, 5:12 PM CDTTornado WarningDMXPoweshiek, Tama18 min
Jul 19, 5:13 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedDMXDavis, Mahaska, Wapello47 min
Jul 19, 5:26 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNJefferson, Van Buren49 min
Jul 19, 5:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDavis, Wapello20 min
Jul 19, 5:59 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNVan Buren44 min
Jul 19, 6:23 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNLee, Van Buren67 min
Jul 19, 6:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNScotland26 min
Jul 19, 7:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNClark, Scotland40 min
Jul 19, 8:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNLee39 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2018-07-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2018-07-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -12 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1807 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-21 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

982 
WWUS20 KWNS 192006
SEL5  
SPC WW 192006
IAZ000-MOZ000-200300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
310 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  East-central and Southeast Iowa
  Far Northeast Missouri

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter likely
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...The air mass continues to steadily destabilize at mid
afternoon across southern into central Iowa where a moist
environment otherwise exists. Strong winds through a deep layer, in
conjunction with sufficiently strong low-level winds, would appear
to support a supercell-related tornado risk aside from severe
hail/wind potential.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles north of Des Moines IA to 50
miles east of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 283...WW 284...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 12:47 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFremont, Mills118 min
Jul 19, 1:00 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFremont, Mills, Page5 hr
Jul 19, 1:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHancock, Kossuth, Winnebago63 min
Jul 19, 2:32 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Boone, Clarke, Dallas, Davis, Decatur and 13 more118 min
Jul 19, 5:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppanoose, Benton, Black Hawk, Cedar, Clinton, Davis and 27 more57 min
Jul 19, 6:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDes Moines, Lee64 min
Jul 19, 3:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt53 min
Jul 19, 9:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Bates, Benton, Boone, Caldwell, Callaway and 45 more2 hr
Jul 19, 11:22 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Caldwell, Callaway and 47 more10 hr
Jul 19, 12:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCPlatte8 hr
Jul 19, 2:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Carter, Christian, Dallas, Dent and 27 more2 hr
Jul 19, 2:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPlatte92 min
Jul 19, 6:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCKnox, Lewis, Lincoln, Marion, Pike, Ralls and 4 more7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2018Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.