Alert archive / New Jersey / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2018
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 15, 2018, 1:46 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2018, 1:46 PM EDT (17:46 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2018, 10:40 PM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 49 counties
Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 10%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 95%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 60%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 3:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Carbon, Monroe | 55 min |
| May 15, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 86 min |
| May 15, 3:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Morris, Sussex, Warren | 74 min |
| May 15, 3:57 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | OKX | Orange | 33 min |
| May 15, 4:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Carbon, Monroe | 33 min |
| May 15, 4:26 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | PHI | Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery, Northampton | 19 min |
| May 15, 4:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Warren | 64 min |
| May 15, 4:43 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 32 min |
| May 15, 4:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 54 min |
| May 15, 5:07 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | OKX | Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 23 min |
| May 15, 5:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Chester | 63 min |
| May 15, 5:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Burlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean | 38 min |
| May 15, 5:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 47 min |
| May 15, 5:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | New Castle | 67 min |
| May 15, 5:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Burlington, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean | 52 min |
| May 15, 6:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Chester | 60 min |
| May 15, 6:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Kent, New Castle | 40 min |
| May 15, 7:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | New Castle | 57 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 137 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 909 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 107 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 11:43 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr | |
| May 15, 1:03 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 4 hr |
| May 15, 1:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr | |
| May 15, 2:23 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 4 hr |
| May 15, 2:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr | |
| May 15, 3:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 117 min | |
| May 15, 5:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent | 92 min |
| May 15, 12:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins | 7 hr |
| May 15, 2:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome | 2 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2018Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.