Alert archive / New York / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 94

May 15, 20185 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2018, 1:03 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 15, 2018, 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC)
Expired
May 15, 2018, 5:18 PM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
70 kt
All 26 counties

Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Washington County, NY, Lackawanna County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
95%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
60%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 1:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster50 min
May 15, 2:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSusquehanna, Wayne65 min
May 15, 2:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYGreene, Ulster40 min
May 15, 2:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware, Sullivan50 min
May 15, 2:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMLackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming48 min
May 15, 2:31 PM EDTTornado WarningALYColumbia, Dutchess, Ulster29 min
May 15, 2:36 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMDelaware, Sullivan24 min
May 15, 2:48 PM EDTTornado WarningALYUlster42 min
May 15, 2:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYBerkshire53 min
May 15, 2:53 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMSullivan23 min
May 15, 2:57 PM EDTTornado WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region33 min
May 15, 2:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region62 min
May 15, 3:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSullivan55 min
May 15, 3:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYUlster38 min
May 15, 3:27 PM EDTTornado WarningBGMSullivan33 min
May 15, 3:34 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region56 min
May 15, 3:38 PM EDTTornado WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region22 min
May 15, 3:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYUlster48 min
May 15, 3:51 PM EDTTornado WarningALYUlster24 min
May 15, 3:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMSullivan20 min
May 15, 4:15 PM EDTTornado WarningALYDutchess, Ulster30 min
May 15, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region32 min
May 15, 4:48 PM EDTTornado WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region19 min
May 15, 4:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region17 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-05-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-05-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 103 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
932 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
259 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

077 
WWUS20 KWNS 151701
SEL4  
SPC WW 151701
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-160000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 94
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western Connecticut
  Western Massachusetts
  Southern and eastern New York
  Northeast Pennsylvania
  Southern Vermont

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
  800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
    gusts to 80 mph likely
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of severe storms will progress rapidly east from
central Pennsylvania with additional cells developing ahead of it
across the Hudson Valley vicinity. This activity will pose a risk
for a few tornadoes along with widespread damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Binghamton NY to 20
miles east northeast of Pittsfield MA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 15, 11:43 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC3 hr
May 15, 1:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGreater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region9 hr
May 15, 1:58 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
May 15, 2:23 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCapitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region4 hr
May 15, 2:38 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
May 15, 3:33 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC117 min
May 15, 2:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk5 hr
May 15, 12:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChemung, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins7 hr
May 15, 2:14 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroome2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in New York, 2018Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018Tornado Watches in Vermont, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.