Alert archive / New York / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 94
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2018, 1:03 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 15, 2018, 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC)
- Expired
- May 15, 2018, 5:18 PM EDT
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 70 kt
All 26 counties
Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Washington County, NY, Lackawanna County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 30%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 95%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 60%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 60%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 50%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 1:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Ulster | 50 min |
| May 15, 2:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Susquehanna, Wayne | 65 min |
| May 15, 2:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Greene, Ulster | 40 min |
| May 15, 2:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Delaware, Sullivan | 50 min |
| May 15, 2:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Lackawanna, Luzerne, Wyoming | 48 min |
| May 15, 2:31 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Columbia, Dutchess, Ulster | 29 min |
| May 15, 2:36 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | BGM | Delaware, Sullivan | 24 min |
| May 15, 2:48 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Ulster | 42 min |
| May 15, 2:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Berkshire | 53 min |
| May 15, 2:53 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | BGM | Sullivan | 23 min |
| May 15, 2:57 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 33 min |
| May 15, 2:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 62 min |
| May 15, 3:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Sullivan | 55 min |
| May 15, 3:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Ulster | 38 min |
| May 15, 3:27 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | BGM | Sullivan | 33 min |
| May 15, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 56 min |
| May 15, 3:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 22 min |
| May 15, 3:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Ulster | 48 min |
| May 15, 3:51 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Ulster | 24 min |
| May 15, 3:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BGM | Sullivan | 20 min |
| May 15, 4:15 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Dutchess, Ulster | 30 min |
| May 15, 4:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 32 min |
| May 15, 4:48 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 19 min |
| May 15, 4:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Northwest Hills Planning Region | 17 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 91 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 932 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 103 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 259 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
077
WWUS20 KWNS 151701
SEL4
SPC WW 151701
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-160000-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 94
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
105 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Connecticut
Western Massachusetts
Southern and eastern New York
Northeast Pennsylvania
Southern Vermont
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until
800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
gusts to 80 mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A line of severe storms will progress rapidly east from
central Pennsylvania with additional cells developing ahead of it
across the Hudson Valley vicinity. This activity will pose a risk
for a few tornadoes along with widespread damaging winds.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Binghamton NY to 20
miles east northeast of Pittsfield MA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26045.
...GramsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 11:43 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr | |
| May 15, 1:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 9 hr |
| May 15, 1:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr | |
| May 15, 2:23 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Capitol Planning Region, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region | 4 hr |
| May 15, 2:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr | |
| May 15, 3:33 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 117 min | |
| May 15, 2:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bristol, Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk | 5 hr |
| May 15, 12:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chemung, Schuyler, Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins | 7 hr |
| May 15, 2:14 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome | 2 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in New York, 2018Tornado Watches in Pennsylvania, 2018Tornado Watches in Vermont, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.