Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along a
previous outflow boundary across the eastern Ozarks. Additional
explosive thunderstorm development has taken place across eastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri ahead of an approaching short
wave trough and deep moisture convergence.

High amounts of instability exist with MLCAPE values of 2500-3500
J/kg. These storms will likely continue to conglomerate into a
line or multiple lines late this afternoon as the atmosphere will
remain favorable for strong cold pools. Damaging straight-line
winds will be the main concern along with hail up to the size of
quarters.

We will also continue to monitor cells across the eastern Ozarks
as deep layer shear has supported supercellular structures. This
would promote larger hail potential (up to the size of golf
balls). We will also have to watch storms tracking along remnant
outflow boundaries for low-end tornado potential.

Flash flooding will also be a threat, especially across central
Missouri where we may see a 1-2 hour period of training. That
area also saw heavy rainfall this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will then end from northwest to
southeast late this evening and overnight with the severe threat
also diminishing.

We could see a lingering storm or two into Wednesday across
south-central Missouri. However, most areas are expected to remain
dry. The big story for Wednesday will be the return to heat and
humidity. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected
with afternoon heat indices between 97 and 107. We have expanded
the Heat Advisory farther east to include the Highway 65 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

An upper level ridge will continue to build into the region late
this week with the heat and humidity continuing. Highs through
Saturday will once again warm into the lower to middle 90s over
most areas. Dew points will remain high enough through at least
Thursday to support afternoon heat indices in the 97 to 107 range.
Thus, we have extended the Heat Advisory through Thursday. It is
quite possible that the advisory may need to be extended towards
the weekend, especially if dew points remain a bit higher. Areal
expansion will also be possible.

Medium range models then shift the ridge to the east and begin to
flatten it out from later this weekend into early next week. This
should result in slightly cooler temperatures along with at least
a marginal risk for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Scattered thunderstorms will impact southern Missouri through this
evening. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected around storms. There
is also the potential for hail and gusty winds.

Storms will then end later tonight with VFR returning to the
region and continuing into Wednesday.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southwest with late morning and afternoon gusts over 20
knots. There will be low level wind shear overnight and early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271715-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Heat index values this afternoon are expected to reach the mid
90s to around 100 degrees across southern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

A strongly unstable environment and moderate amounts of wind shear
will support the development of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of eastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. These storms will then congeal into small
clusters and move southeast across much of the remainder of the
Missouri Ozarks this evening.

The main potential severe weather hazards will be hail up to the
size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.
There is also a limited risk for an isolated tornado. The main
severe weather threat will generally occur along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor from mid afternoon through late evening.

In addition to the chance of severe storms, very heavy rain will
be likely and may lead to some isolated localized flooding.
Frequent lightning can also be expected from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will return to the area Wednesday with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s and heat index
values from the upper 90s to around 107.

Even hotter conditions are expected on Thursday with heat index
values from 100 to 107 expected.

Thunderstorm chances will return to the area Friday into early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening
 generally along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW SPRINGFIELD        37.22N 93.32W
06/26/2018                   GREENE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON W NICHOLS ST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE OSCEOLA            38.05N 93.69W
06/26/2018                   ST. CLAIR          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES SNAPPED ABOUT
            0.5 MI N OF THE DOWNTOWN SQUARE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
515 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N 93.22W
06/26/2018                   GREENE             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
516 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE SPRINGFIELD        37.24N 93.22W
06/26/2018                   GREENE             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 4
            NE SPRINGFIELD. SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEOSHO                  36.86N 94.37W
06/26/2018                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLOOD            NEOSHO                  36.86N 94.37W
06/26/2018                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IN NEOSHO.

&&