Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Springfield, MO

425 
WWUS53 KSGF 260331
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1031 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

MOC153-260345-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180626T0345Z/
Ozark MO-
1031 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTY...

At 1030 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of Gainesville, or 15 miles north of Mountain Home, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Norfork Lake...                   Gainesville...
Bakersfield...                    Hardenville...
Sycamore...                       Tecumseh...
Zanoni...                         Udall...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can 
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 9252 3673 9235 3673 9211 3671 9211
      3650 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 243DEG 28KT 3655 9232 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Foster

318 
WWUS53 KSGF 260343
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

MOC153-260353-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-180626T0345Z/
Ozark MO-
1043 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OZARK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3651 9252 3673 9235 3673 9211 3671 9211
      3650 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 239DEG 49KT 3662 9217 

$$

Foster

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

The potential for storms and severe weather through the evening
continues to decrease. The axis of instability and low level
convergence has shifted east. Thunderstorm development could take
place overnight as the upper low tracks slowly east and a low
level jet develops. Best chance of storm development overnight
appears to be across south central Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

A residual boundary from the MCS that moved across the plains last
night was moving across the Ozarks this afternoon. The latest
satellite images were showing cumulus beginning to develop near this
boundary along the Highway 65 corridor.

The daytime heating through early this afternoon ahead of the
boundary has allowed CAPE values to climb into the 2000-3000j/kg
range across the eastern Ozarks. CAMS models have been indicating
storm development across the eastern Ozarks starting around 19z.
While shear is limited and unidirectional, there will still be a
potential for strong to severe storm development this afternoon
into this evening. Current thoughts are for strong damaging winds
and significant lightning to be the primary concerns though hail
up to quarter size will also be possible.

The convection this afternoon will move quickly east allowing the
atmosphere to recharge this evening. The continuing southwesterly
flow and ample Gulf moisture will provide continued fuel for
storms to redevelop tonight into Tuesday morning. The convection
that models develop tonight may linger across the region which
would bring a potential low end flooding concern. The rather dry
conditions over the region will aid in limiting the potential for
flooding concerns. However, if storms begin training, some
locations could see flooding.

The southwesterly flow will continue into Tuesday with additional
strong to severe storms expected through the day. At least one
model develops a squall line and moves it through the region
Tuesday afternoon. Forecast instability near 3000j/kg, residual
boundary from today's convection and a potential lingering low
level jet would all contribute to strong to severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Lingering storms will diminish through Tuesday night thanks to an
upper level ridge that begins to move east across the Plains and
into the Ozarks region by Wednesday.

With the ridge in place over the center of the country and a warm
moist airmass over the area, temperatures will start their climb
into the 90s. With afternoon highs expected in the lower to
middle 90s Wednesday through Friday, heat index values will climb
to between 100 and 110 for the latter half of the week and into
the weekend.

Heat headlines will be needed for Wednesday and likely into
Saturday. This will be from the combination of the heat and the
high humidity from the rainfall of the past few days.

The next chance for rain and possibly a slightly cooler airmass
should arrive Sunday into Monday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Pilots can expect prevailing VFR conditions tonight into Tuesday.
A few storms may develop in the terminal vicinities late tonight
an again later Tuesday. Marginal low level wind shear may also
develop late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Foster

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
far southern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. The greatest coverage of storms will be
southeast of a Cassville to Salem line. Locally strong to severe
storms capable of producing hail to the size of nickels and wind
gusts to 50 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across
portions of the outlook area. Additional thunderstorms will occur
Tuesday evening and overnight as a complex of storms moves in
from the north. Some storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds. A risk for localized flash flooding may also
develop Tuesday night.

Heat indicies will climb back into the 90s to near 100 Tuesday
and between 100 and 109 degrees, Wednesday through Saturday
across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Foster

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
959 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

MOZ105-260345-
Ozark MO-
959 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM CDT...

At 959 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gainesville, or 12 miles northeast of Bull Shoals, moving northeast
at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bull Shoals Lake...               Norfork Lake...
Gainesville...                    Bakersfield...
Pontiac...                        Hardenville...
Brixey...                         Sycamore...
Tecumseh...                       Dora...
Zanoni...                         Udall...

LAT...LON 3651 9269 3680 9235 3679 9212 3675 9211
      3650 9213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 239DEG 49KT 3654 9250

Foster