Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Main focus will be the chance of severe storms today and with
excessive heat for Wed/Thu.

Surface low pressure was located near the IA/NE/SD borders early
this morning. Convection was occurring across our CWA along the
I-44 corridor within an area of higher moisture (1.5-1.7 PWAT)
along the southeast edge of an upper level jet streak and 850 mb
low level jet. While the storms have been moving over roughly the
same locations, they remain scattered in nature and at this point
at least are not posing any flooding risk. A few have pulsed up to
marginally severe but for the most part have remained sub-severe.
The current convection should slide off to the east and dissipate
by mid morning, but another surge of moisture is expected by late
morning into the afternoon ahead of a surface front as the low
shifts slowly east across Iowa. Instability will increase during
the afternoon with 2000-3000 ML CAPE values by late afternoon.
Shear values will also begin to increase by late afternoon into
the evening, especially as the low level jet intensifies. The best
area for severe storms look to be along and north of the I-44
corridor from late afternoon through the evening, with large hail
and damaging wind the main severe weather risk. An isolated
tornado can't be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

The main upper level wave will move into the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday and the precipitation should also move east out of our
area. Upper level ridging will begin over the area and should
increase our heat and heat index values, especially on Wednesday
and Thursday with much warmer mid level air edging eastward into
the CWA. Will be issuing a heat advisory for the western portion
of the CWA for Wednesday and will probably need one for nearly the
entire area on Thursday, but will hold off on going out that far
in time right now. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 90s and on
Thursday in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values from the upper
90s to around 106 on Wednesday and 102 to 107 on Thursday.

Another upper trough will begin to push into the plains over the
weekend with the upper ridge continuing to push eastward into the
eastern U.S. Will see more of a southwesterly flow aloft and a
return of low level Gulf moisture, so the convection chances will
be on the increase for the later half of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Scattered thunderstorms will impact southern Missouri through this
evening. MVFR and brief IFR can be expected around storms. There
is also the potential for hail and gusty winds.

Storms will then end later tonight with VFR returning to the
region and continuing into Wednesday.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface winds will remain out of the
south to southwest with late morning and afternoon gusts over 20
knots. There will be low level wind shear overnight and early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ066-067-
     077-078-088-089-093-094-101.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271715-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Heat index values this afternoon are expected to reach the mid
90s to around 100 degrees across southern Missouri and
southeastern Kansas.

A strongly unstable environment and moderate amounts of wind shear
will support the development of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of eastern Kansas and
west-central Missouri. These storms will then congeal into small
clusters and move southeast across much of the remainder of the
Missouri Ozarks this evening.

The main potential severe weather hazards will be hail up to the
size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.
There is also a limited risk for an isolated tornado. The main
severe weather threat will generally occur along and north of the
Interstate 44 corridor from mid afternoon through late evening.

In addition to the chance of severe storms, very heavy rain will
be likely and may lead to some isolated localized flooding.
Frequent lightning can also be expected from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions will return to the area Wednesday with
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s and heat index
values from the upper 90s to around 107.

Even hotter conditions are expected on Thursday with heat index
values from 100 to 107 expected.

Thunderstorm chances will return to the area Friday into early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening
 generally along and north of the Interstate 44 corridor.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
937 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ056-261515-
Morgan MO-
937 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 1015
AM CDT...

At 937 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Versailles to 7 miles south of Stover to
13 miles west of Laurie. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Versailles...
Stover...                         Laurie...
Barnett...                        Gravois Mills...
Rocky Mount...

LAT...LON 3844 9263 3834 9264 3835 9269 3822 9270
      3823 9301 3826 9304 3827 9306 3847 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 254DEG 43KT 3841 9289 3833 9297 3826 9306

Raberding

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
957 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ057-261545-
Miller MO-
957 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY UNTIL 1045
AM CDT...

At 956 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near High Point to near Village of Four
Seasons. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Eldon...
Lake Ozark...                     Saint Elizabeth...
St. Elizabeth...                  Tuscumbia...
Eugene...                         Olean...
Bagnell...                        Etterville...
Marys Home...                     Aurora Springs...

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3834 9240 3834 9229 3832 9225
      3834 9222 3833 9219 3819 9220 3822 9270
      3835 9269 3835 9263 3843 9263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1456Z 280DEG 34KT 3845 9262 3826 9271

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1008 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     HAIL             3 WNW YUKON             37.29N 91.89W
06/26/2018  E0.25 INCH       TEXAS              MO   COCORAHS

&&

MMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1022 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ056-261545-
Morgan MO-
1022 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 1045
AM CDT...

At 1021 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Versailles, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Versailles...
Laurie...                         Barnett...
Gravois Mills...                  Rocky Mount...

LAT...LON 3846 9266 3835 9268 3835 9269 3830 9269
      3822 9270 3821 9293 3823 9294 3842 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1521Z 281DEG 36KT 3832 9279

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 AM     HAIL             RICHLAND                37.86N 92.40W
06/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            MO   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ057-058-070-071-081-261815-
Maries MO-Phelps MO-Miller MO-Laclede MO-Pulaski MO-
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MARIES...SOUTHEASTERN
MILLER...NORTHEASTERN LACLEDE...PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES UNTIL 115
PM CDT...

At 1233 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Richland, or 13 miles west of Waynesville, moving northeast at 55
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla...                          Fort Leonard Wood...
Waynesville...                    St. Robert...
Richland...                       Dixon...
Crocker...                        Iberia...
Doolittle...                      Newburg...
Edgar Springs...                  Stoutland...
Brinktown...                      Devil's Elbow...
Laquey...                         Northwye...
Swedeborg...                      Ozark Springs...
Jerome...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 140 and 169, and
between mile markers 171 and 192.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 9164 3779 9176 3779 9181 3768 9181
      3765 9182 3770 9246 3780 9254 3783 9250
      3782 9246 3786 9241 3795 9241 3819 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 239DEG 48KT 3779 9243

Hatch