Heat Advisory 2, NWS Springfield, MO

Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Main focus will be the chance of severe storms today and with
excessive heat for Wed/Thu.

Surface low pressure was located near the IA/NE/SD borders early
this morning. Convection was occurring across our CWA along the
I-44 corridor within an area of higher moisture (1.5-1.7 PWAT)
along the southeast edge of an upper level jet streak and 850 mb
low level jet. While the storms have been moving over roughly the
same locations, they remain scattered in nature and at this point
at least are not posing any flooding risk. A few have pulsed up to
marginally severe but for the most part have remained sub-severe.
The current convection should slide off to the east and dissipate
by mid morning, but another surge of moisture is expected by late
morning into the afternoon ahead of a surface front as the low
shifts slowly east across Iowa. Instability will increase during
the afternoon with 2000-3000 ML CAPE values by late afternoon.
Shear values will also begin to increase by late afternoon into
the evening, especially as the low level jet intensifies. The best
area for severe storms look to be along and north of the I-44
corridor from late afternoon through the evening, with large hail
and damaging wind the main severe weather risk. An isolated
tornado can't be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018

The main upper level wave will move into the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday and the precipitation should also move east out of our
area. Upper level ridging will begin over the area and should
increase our heat and heat index values, especially on Wednesday
and Thursday with much warmer mid level air edging eastward into
the CWA. Will be issuing a heat advisory for the western portion
of the CWA for Wednesday and will probably need one for nearly the
entire area on Thursday, but will hold off on going out that far
in time right now. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 90s and on
Thursday in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values from the upper
90s to around 106 on Wednesday and 102 to 107 on Thursday.

Another upper trough will begin to push into the plains over the
weekend with the upper ridge continuing to push eastward into the
eastern U.S. Will see more of a southwesterly flow aloft and a
return of low level Gulf moisture, so the convection chances will
be on the increase for the later half of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

For the 06z TAFS, some convection may affect the SGF/BBG terminals
from the onset through the first few hours with another round
possible later in the morning. Outside of the convection we can
expect VFR conditions with brief MVFR/IFR conditions within the
convection. Afternoon convection may be a bit further east of the
terminals and will hold off for now on any mention.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
840 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
far southern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. The greatest coverage of storms will be
southeast of a Cassville to Salem line. Locally strong to severe
storms capable of producing hail to the size of nickels and wind
gusts to 50 mph will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across
portions of the outlook area. Additional thunderstorms will occur
Tuesday evening and overnight as a complex of storms moves in
from the north. Some storms may be severe with large hail and
damaging winds. A risk for localized flash flooding may also
develop Tuesday night.

Heat indicies will climb back into the 90s to near 100 Tuesday
and between 100 and 109 degrees, Wednesday through Saturday
across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Foster

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1028 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

MOZ090-094-260415-
Greene MO-Lawrence MO-
1028 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND GREENE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1027 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Republic, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield...                    Republic...
Battlefield...                    Willard...
Strafford...                      Ash Grove...
Fair Grove...                     Brookline...
Halltown...                       Chesapeake...
Sacville...                       Glidewell...
Ebenezer...                       Bassville...
Turners...                        Bois D'arc...
Cave Springs...                   Galloway...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 50 and 90.

LAT...LON 3720 9376 3742 9341 3741 9308 3713 9306
      3710 9337 3710 9360 3708 9374
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 239DEG 48KT 3721 9356

Foster

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ069-080-081-260545-
Dallas MO-Camden MO-Laclede MO-
1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...
NORTHWESTERN LACLEDE AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

At 1203 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of Buffalo, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon...                        Bennett Spring State Park...
Richland...                       Stoutland...
Bennett Springs...                Windyville...
Eldridge...                       Plad...
Sleeper...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 130 and 143.

LAT...LON 3764 9292 3777 9302 3790 9284 3789 9241
      3772 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0503Z 231DEG 40KT 3774 9289

Foster

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
140 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ069-070-081-260730-
Camden MO-Laclede MO-Pulaski MO-
140 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LACLEDE...PULASKI
AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 140 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Richland, or 13 miles northeast of Lebanon, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Fort Leonard Wood...     Waynesville...
St. Robert...                     Richland...
Dixon...                          Crocker...
Stoutland...                      Laquey...
Devil's Elbow...                  Swedeborg...
Ozark Springs...                  Wet Glaize...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 137 and 168.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Springfield.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 9202 3796 9202 3783 9203 3770 9253
      3786 9262 3802 9240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 238DEG 27KT 3782 9249

Griffin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ082-083-092-260830-
Dent MO-Wright MO-Texas MO-
243 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WRIGHT...
SOUTHWESTERN DENT AND TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 243 AM CDT, Doppler radar and storm spotters were tracking a
tornado 10 miles north of Mountain Grove, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montauk State Park...             Mountain Grove...
Licking...                        Cabool...
Houston...                        Dawson...
Summersville...                   Raymondville...
Huggins...                        Montauk...
Bucyrus...                        Graff...
Elk Creek...                      Eunice...
Yukon...                          Hartshorn...
Solo...                           Simmons...
Prescott...                       Bendavis...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 9223 3723 9247 3760 9176 3743 9166
      3719 9165 3716 9166
TIME...MOT...LOC 0743Z 238DEG 40KT 3727 9223

Griffin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
248 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ082-083-260845-
Dent MO-Texas MO-
248 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DENT AND TEXAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Houston, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montauk State Park...             Mountain Grove...
Licking...                        Cabool...
Houston...                        Summersville...
Raymondville...                   Huggins...
Montauk...                        Bucyrus...
Elk Creek...                      Eunice...
Yukon...                          Hartshorn...
Solo...                           Simmons...
Prescott...                       Bendavis...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 9166 3706 9225 3736 9225 3759 9176
      3741 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 238DEG 40KT 3729 9216

Griffin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

MOZ090-260845-
Greene MO-
258 AM CDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GREENE COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 258 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Willard, or 7 miles west of Springfield, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield...                    Republic...
Battlefield...                    Willard...
Rogersville...                    Strafford...
Ash Grove...                      Fair Grove...
Walnut Grove...                   Brookline...
Sacville...                       Glidewell...
Ebenezer...                       Bassville...
Turners...                        Bois D'arc...
Cave Springs...                   Galloway...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 59 and 90.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 9361 3728 9361 3728 9363 3742 9362
      3743 9355 3742 9308 3709 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 244DEG 31KT 3723 9342

Griffin