Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Blacksburg, VA

884 
WGUS71 KRNK 170042
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
842 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCC169-VAC141-170500-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180917T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stokes NC-Patrick VA-
842 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR 
STOKES AND EASTERN PATRICK COUNTIES...

At 842 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned
area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is
expected to begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Walnut Cove...
Stuart...
Danbury...
Francisco...
and Sandy Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3655 8044 3655 8040 3686 8018
      3685 8007 3683 8008 3679 8004 3678 8010
      3672 8009 3666 8006 3654 8006 3654 8003
      3626 8004

$$

KK

008 
WGUS71 KRNK 170256
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1056 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCC169-VAC141-170500-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180917T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stokes NC-Patrick VA-
1056 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR 
STOKES AND EASTERN PATRICK COUNTIES...

At 1054 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that heavy rain continued to fall across the area as the remnants of 
former Hurricane Florence track northward through the region. Of 
immediate concern is a band of extremely heavy rain and embedded 
thunderstorms that was approaching the county from the southeast. 2-
3 inches of rain has fallen across most of Stokes County this 
evening and an additional 2-4 inches of rain is possible during the 
next couple of hours as this band of very heavy rain moves northward 
through the county. Flash flooding has been reported in the area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Walnut Cove...
Stuart...
Danbury...
Francisco...
and Sandy Ridge.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Brushy Fork Creek...
Mountain Branch...
Little Goblintown Creek...
Crooked Run Creek...
and Big Beaver Island Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3655 8044 3655 8040 3686 8018
      3685 8007 3683 8008 3679 8004 3678 8010
      3672 8009 3666 8006 3654 8006 3654 8003
      3626 8004

$$

RAB

920 
WGUS51 KRNK 170453
FFWRNK
NCC169-VAC141-170800-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180917T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1253 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Stokes County in north central North Carolina...
  Eastern Patrick County in southwestern Virginia...

* Until 400 AM EDT

* At 1252 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  very heavy rain associated with the remnants of former Hurricane 
  Florence continues to fall across the warned area. Flash flooding 
  has been reported in some areas and will continue or worsen over 
  the next few hours.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Walnut Cove...
  Stuart...
  Danbury...
  Francisco...
  and Sandy Ridge.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
Brushy Fork Creek...
Mountain Branch...
Little Goblintown Creek...
Crooked Run Creek...
and Big Beaver Island Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3655 8044 3655 8040 3686 8018
      3685 8007 3683 8008 3679 8004 3678 8010
      3672 8009 3666 8006 3654 8006 3654 8003
      3626 8004

$$

RAB

209 
WGUS71 KRNK 170801
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
401 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCC169-VAC141-170809-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-180917T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Stokes NC-Patrick VA-
401 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR STOKES AND EASTERN PATRICK
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

The heavy rain has ended. The threat of flash flooding has
greatly diminished at this time.  However, the Flash Flood
Warning has been replaced with a Flood Warning as excessive
runoff of rain water will continue for several more hours
through the morning hours. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather Service
by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and
pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3655 8044 3655 8040 3686 8018
      3685 8007 3683 8008 3679 8004 3678 8010
      3672 8009 3666 8006 3654 8006 3654 8003
      3626 8004

$$

RAB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
353 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Florence will continue to track northwest across the extreme western
Carolinas this evening before becoming a remnant low over eastern
Kentucky tonight. This system should finally exit through the Ohio
Valley on Monday. Periods of heavy rain and gusty winds will
accompany this system bringing the threat of significant flooding
through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Bands of heavier rainfall slowly evolving north aided by weak
instability across eastern sections with a feed of showers into the
Blue Ridge. Otherwise expecting more stratiform rainfall compliments
of the low level wedge, to gradually increase with embedded heavier
bands developing from south to north this evening. Main concern for
torrential rainfall will come in a window from after sunset southern
half to across northern/eastern sections during the early morning
hours of Monday. Latest Hi-Res models suggest a strong convergence
axis to lift north by midnight, espcly where the flow transitions to
a more south to southeast component beneath the departing wedge.
This likely to spell an axis of heavy rain lifting north with
enhanced amounts of over 5 inches due to topography along the Blue
Ridge despite lack of upslope until the flow turns more southeast.
Increasing helicity along this band likely the biggest threat for
spin up tornadoes with perhaps another burst of higher winds with
this feature. Thus planning to extend the wind advisory out until
midnight with some gusty winds even possible out to the Blue Ridge
pending the depth of this band. Since SREF QPF along with the latest
ECMWF output shows an enhanced band of heavier rain up along the
northern Blue Ridge per easterly flow, will expand the flash flood
watch north into the Va Highlands and southern Shenandoah Valley
where flash flood guidance is a bit lower at this point. Otherwise
categorical pops with lows mainly in the 60s overnight.

Florence remnant lifts by to the northwest on Monday allowing warm
advection to win out as a dry slot emerges across the southwest
during the morning with soundings showing some drying aloft. However
appears will still have bands of heavier rain around in the morning
mainly north and east with perhaps little southwest pending just how
fast the punch of dry air arrives. Main question Monday afternoon
will be with convective coverage as heating promotes better
instability with guidance showing perhaps a band of stronger storms
developing east of the mountains later in the afternoon along a
residual trough axis trailing from part of Florence. Even a few
clusters possible mountains if things dont mix out under drying
aloft and low level mixing. Thus maintaining high pops with more
thunder mention before tapering from the southwest again late. Highs
muggy given tropical moisture around with highs possibly topping 80
east and into the 70s mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Tropical remnants lift north of us Monday night, moving into
New England Tuesday. Showers may linger us upper shortwave
energy and remnant 5H trof passes over head. After that...look
for clearing and drying as High pressure build back over the
region Wednesday.

It will remain breezy Tuesday in the wake of the departing storm
system, pressure rises behind the system suggesting speeds of 15
to 25 mph...with gusts up to 30 mph along the ridge
crests...from a northwesterly direction.

Drying Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring clearing skies
with a return to mostly sunny conditions Wednesday. Temperatures
will favor above seasonal values as subtropical ridge of high
pressure re-emerges over the southeastern CONUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Subtropical ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across
the southeastern CONUS for Thursday and Friday favoring above
temperatures for the remainder of the week. Dewpoints will also
remain elevated, so anticipating summer-like conditions. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late in the week
providing an uptick in shower/storm chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Sunday...

Persistence forecast continues at least this afternoon into
early Monday as expect poor flying conditions as the result of
low cigs and vsbys into the overnight.

Expect rain to become more widspread from south to north into
early this evening and heavy at times, especially south of a
KLWB-KROA-KLYH line. Going to see heavier rain bands move
northward into areas east of KBLF-KLWB by midnight with this
heavy rain shifting northeast late.

Ceilings/vsbys will fluctuate between LIFR to low end MVFR into
Monday morning.

Northeast winds to remain gusty at times this afternoon before
turning more east and southeast with stronger gusts of above 30
kts possible, primarily confined to rain bands overnight.

Rainfall becomes more showery on Monday with lingering bands of
showers and perhaps thunderstorms into Monday afternoon espcly
east of the Blue Ridge. As the flow turns more south to
southwest as Florence moves west of the Appalachians, will see
increasing ceilings, but still not expecting anything better
than high end MVFR until Monday afternoon.

Confidence is high on sub-VFR cigs/vsbys and medium on overall
timing of them. High confidence in winds as well.

Extended Discussion...

Will finally see Florence shift north of us by Monday night
with conditions improving. A weak upper low may bring added
showers for Tuesday with possible periods of sub-VFR Tuesday
afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected for Wednesday
through Friday with high pressure over the area.

Confidence gradually transitions to above average by Monday
night into the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 PM Sunday...

Finally into the long-advertised event with bands of moderate to
heavy rainfall across the CWA since this morning. Amounts over the
past few days have ranged from over 3 inches, with isolated 5 inch
amounts in parts of North Carolina and along the Blue Ridge in
Virginia to very little in the far north. The threat for flash
flooding remains overnight with WPC maintaining High Risk overnight
for exceeding flash flood guidance and a still Moderate risk
tomorrow. WPC QPF has backed off some from the truly alarming
forecast rainfall totals of previous days which will have an impact
on the river forecasts but is still substantial enough in the next
24 hours for the Flash Flood Watch to continue or for the expansion
to the northern border of the CWA which was issued this afternoon.
River flood warnings are out along the Dan, Yadkin and just issued
for the New. With the lowered QPF, considerably lower stages now
forecast on the New River compared to previous guidance. Again
the difficulties of issuing river forecasts based all or mostly
on QPF are illustrated. Could still see some minor flooding on
the Roanoke River but these forecast levels are way down from
the projections yesterday. The biggest questions remain on the
Dan and Yadkin rivers where forecasts for Major flooding were
issued last night and we are awaiting updated guidance from
SERFC. High-res CAM models including the HRRR still showing
heavy banded rainfall lifting northwest into Yadkin, Wilkes,
Surry and Watauga counties this evening and this area will be a
potential prime focus for flash flooding.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>035-043-044-058.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-009-010-
     012-013-015>017-032.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>003-
     018>020.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for WVZ042>044-507-
     508.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...PC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

VAZ018>020-023-024-034-035-WVZ043-044-507-508-171945-
Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Summers-
Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, there is an isolated risk for quick spinups of
tornadoes into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

VAZ045>047-059-171945-
Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Charlotte-
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia and south
central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rainfall will start to move into the area this evening into the
overnight. Localized flash flooding may occur.

In addition, there is an isolated risk for quick spinups of
tornadoes into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Excessive rainfall from the remnants of Florence will impact the
area Monday. Some spots could see isolated strong thunderstorms that
could produce enough added rainfall for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

NCZ004>006-VAZ011-014-022-033-043-044-058-171945-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Giles-Montgomery-Roanoke-Franklin-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Halifax-
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition, there is an isolated risk for quick spinups of
tornadoes into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ007-009-010-012-013-015>017-032-WVZ042-171945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-
Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Mercer-
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

In addition, there is an isolated risk for quick spinups of
tornadoes into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to monitor for flooding, downed trees and
power lines, along with possible tornadoes Sunday. Please email your
rainfall and severe weather reports to rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or pass
them along on our US National Weather Service Blacksburg VA Facebook
page.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S ENNICE              36.52N 80.99W
09/16/2018                   ALLEGHANY          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWNED WHICH TOOK OUT POWER LINES AT GLADE CREEK
            SCHOOL ROAD IN ENNICE.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
454 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 W YADKINVILLE         36.12N 80.71W
09/16/2018                   YADKIN             NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
456 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW YADKINVILLE       36.14N 80.71W
09/16/2018                   YADKIN             NC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
614 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CANA                    36.58N 80.67W
09/16/2018                   CARROLL            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            COUPLE TREES WERE DOWNED IN CANA.

&&

LOCONTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
635 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 S ENNICE              36.47N 80.99W
09/16/2018                   ALLEGHANY          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWNED PARTIALLY BLOCKING SHAWTOWN ROAD IN GLADE
            VALLEY.

&&

LOCONTO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
644 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

VAZ058-059-162330-
Halifax-Charlotte-
644 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...Confirmed Tornado in Vance County North Carolina...

A confirmed tornado is moving northwest through Vance County North
Carolina approaching the Virginia border. If this tornado holds
together, a tornado warning will be needed for parts of Halifax or
Charlotte County or parts of both counties.

LAT...LON 3664 7856 3664 7858 3665 7859 3665 7860
      3669 7865 3668 7869 3679 7880 3692 7860
      3682 7855 3670 7865 3668 7863 3665 7857
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 148DEG 27KT 3650 7845

DS