Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
918 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will linger across central NC until a weak cold
front approaches from the west late Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 918 PM Tuesday...

Thunderstorms have been driven by outflows from earlier storms
moving SE across the northern Piedmont. MLCapes, even at 900 PM
local time ranged in the 1500 J/KG to 2000 J/KG along the
intersection of the surface trough and outflow boundary. This
boundary extended from SW to NE across the Piedmont, moving very
slowly SE. There is developing CINH over the SW and W Piedmont and
Foothills where the nighttime cooling stabilization has begun.

Interestingly, the IR satellite data indicated a rapid expansion of
68-70 below zero (very cold cloud tops) over Yadkin/Surry/Stokes
Counties and over Vance County recently. We should have an
additional hour or two of marginally severe thunderstorms before
they weaken just before midnight or so. Some additional development
is possible, especially in the Triad region as there was still some
surface moisture convergence of high PW's in the 1.7 to 1.8 range
directed into the surface trough and outflows.

Only isolated storms expected around Laurinburg and Raeford through
midnight, otherwise a minimum of POP in the south and east. Partly
cloudy in general expected overnight with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...

Copy and paste today's forecast in for Wednesday. The piedmont
trough will remain in place over the area. Primarily diurnal
convection with coverage similar to today, mainly along differential
heating boundaries. Pwats in the 1.5-2.0 range will also persist.
The upper level trough will start to push the ridge south late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with increasing warm, moist
advection into central NC. With the majority of convection holding
off until later in the evening, expect highs to reach the low to mid
90s, resulting in heat indices in the 100-103 range along and east
of I-85. Overnight lows also similar to to night, low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM TUESDAY...

Longer range forecast remains on track with a steady rise in diurnal
convection coverage, along with a gradual decrease in daytime
heating potential through the period.

A surface lee-side trough will remain across the area through the
end of the workweek before finally becoming washed out by a
shortwave likely to stall a front across region by Friday morning.
In the upper-levels, an amplifying trough over the Great Lakes and
Northeast will become more prominent late in the period before
transitioning into more of a cutoff upper low early next work-week.
Most of Thursday looks to be relatively dry ahead of the front which
is likely to enter and stall across central NC primarily after
sunset. Can't rule out an airmass thunderstorm and/or pre-frontal
trough-initiated storm, but signals remain relatively sparse thanks
to an utter lack of forcing. Some residual showers/storms will
likely spill east of the Appalachians with the front after sunset,
absorbing what's left of the instability before dying out near the
Triangle overnight Thursday/pre-dawn Friday. Southerly/southwesterly
flow becomes better established over the weekend, giving the
potential for more widespread shower/storm development, especially
in the Saturday through Monday time frame. Guidance suggests drier
air moving into the region on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

24 Hour TAF Period:  Expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF
period with short wave ridging over the area helping to limit the
usual afternoon/evening tstm activity over central NC through the 24
hour TAF period. However, lingering isolated to scattered showers
and storms may affect KRDU and possibly KINT/KGSO through around 04Z
or so this evening. Isolated to scattered late day/evening showers
and storms will again be possible Wednesday as well, with the best
chance across the far NW Piedmont. Otherwise, outside of possibly
some patchy sub-VFR visbys at KRWI, VFR conditions are expected.

Outlook: A typical summer pattern is expected, featuring mainly
afternoon/evening showers and tstms each day with patchy morning fog
possible, mainly where showers/tstms occurred the day before. Right
now it appears that the coverage of shower/tstm activity will
increase over the weekend, with perhaps a more prolonged period of
sub-VFR conditions possible then.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PWB/CBL
NEAR TERM...Badgett/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JJM/Franklin
AVIATION...BSD/NP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1110 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

NCZ007>011-026>028-042-043-078-089-090315-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Sampson-
1110 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>025-038>041-073>077-083>086-088-090315-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-
1110 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong showers and thunderstorms will produce isolated damaging wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall. This could lead flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW OXFORD            36.31N 78.60W
08/07/2018                   GRANVILLE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HILLSBORO ST IN OXFORD.

&&

JFD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1021 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW MCLEANSVILLE      36.13N 79.71W
08/07/2018                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON RANKIN MILL RD AND HINES CHAPEL
            RD.

&&

JFD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1026 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NCZ073-074-080315-
Stanly NC-Montgomery NC-
1026 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY AND STANLY COUNTIES
UNTIL 1115 PM EDT...

At 1025 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Plyler, or near Albemarle, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Troy, Badin Lake, Plyler, Locust, Norwood, Badin, Oakboro,
Stanfield and Mount Gilead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 8046 3544 8033 3551 7985 3551 7979
      3518 7982 3518 7985 3516 7989 3517 8011
      3519 8011 3519 8013 3517 8013 3518 8024
      3521 8025 3518 8031 3519 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 270DEG 24KT 3533 8029

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1111 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NCZ024-025-040-041-076-077-080400-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-Orange NC-
1111 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING FROM
CHAPEL HILL TO JORDAN LAKE AND SANFORD... MOVING EAST INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE TRIANGLE AREA...

At 1106 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a line of thunderstorms
extending from Chapel Hill and Carrboro south to near Sanford,
moving east at 20 mph.

Frequent lightning, very heavy rain for 20 to 30 minutes, and wind
gusts to 40 mph are expected with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Morrisville, Chapel Hill, Raleigh-Durham
International Airport, Sanford, Pittsboro, Raven Rock and Carrboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle.

Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7881 3607 7878 3608 7869 3601 7850
      3587 7828 3582 7826 3571 7847 3552 7871
      3549 7866 3542 7860 3529 7920 3531 7919
      3535 7927 3540 7929 3546 7935 3584 7929
      3585 7924 3593 7926 3614 7893 3614 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 249DEG 17KT 3587 7915

PWB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1116 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NCZ039-074-075-080415-
Randolph NC-Moore NC-Montgomery NC-
1116 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MOORE...CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

At 1116 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seagrove, or 8 miles southwest of North Carolina Zoo, moving east at
15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will
be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Biscoe, Seagrove, Robbins, Star, Candor, Steeds, Highfalls,
Eagle Springs and Seven Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 7985 3556 7955 3551 7956 3552 7946
      3519 7966 3535 7997 3541 7998
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 290DEG 13KT 3553 7986

MORROW