Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
918 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will linger across central NC until a weak cold
front approaches from the west late Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 918 PM Tuesday...

Thunderstorms have been driven by outflows from earlier storms
moving SE across the northern Piedmont. MLCapes, even at 900 PM
local time ranged in the 1500 J/KG to 2000 J/KG along the
intersection of the surface trough and outflow boundary. This
boundary extended from SW to NE across the Piedmont, moving very
slowly SE. There is developing CINH over the SW and W Piedmont and
Foothills where the nighttime cooling stabilization has begun.

Interestingly, the IR satellite data indicated a rapid expansion of
68-70 below zero (very cold cloud tops) over Yadkin/Surry/Stokes
Counties and over Vance County recently. We should have an
additional hour or two of marginally severe thunderstorms before
they weaken just before midnight or so. Some additional development
is possible, especially in the Triad region as there was still some
surface moisture convergence of high PW's in the 1.7 to 1.8 range
directed into the surface trough and outflows.

Only isolated storms expected around Laurinburg and Raeford through
midnight, otherwise a minimum of POP in the south and east. Partly
cloudy in general expected overnight with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...

Copy and paste today's forecast in for Wednesday. The piedmont
trough will remain in place over the area. Primarily diurnal
convection with coverage similar to today, mainly along differential
heating boundaries. Pwats in the 1.5-2.0 range will also persist.
The upper level trough will start to push the ridge south late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, with increasing warm, moist
advection into central NC. With the majority of convection holding
off until later in the evening, expect highs to reach the low to mid
90s, resulting in heat indices in the 100-103 range along and east
of I-85. Overnight lows also similar to to night, low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM TUESDAY...

Longer range forecast remains on track with a steady rise in diurnal
convection coverage, along with a gradual decrease in daytime
heating potential through the period.

A surface lee-side trough will remain across the area through the
end of the workweek before finally becoming washed out by a
shortwave likely to stall a front across region by Friday morning.
In the upper-levels, an amplifying trough over the Great Lakes and
Northeast will become more prominent late in the period before
transitioning into more of a cutoff upper low early next work-week.
Most of Thursday looks to be relatively dry ahead of the front which
is likely to enter and stall across central NC primarily after
sunset. Can't rule out an airmass thunderstorm and/or pre-frontal
trough-initiated storm, but signals remain relatively sparse thanks
to an utter lack of forcing. Some residual showers/storms will
likely spill east of the Appalachians with the front after sunset,
absorbing what's left of the instability before dying out near the
Triangle overnight Thursday/pre-dawn Friday. Southerly/southwesterly
flow becomes better established over the weekend, giving the
potential for more widespread shower/storm development, especially
in the Saturday through Monday time frame. Guidance suggests drier
air moving into the region on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

24 Hour TAF Period:  Expect mostly VFR conditions through the TAF
period with short wave ridging over the area helping to limit the
usual afternoon/evening tstm activity over central NC through the 24
hour TAF period. However, lingering isolated to scattered showers
and storms may affect KRDU and possibly KINT/KGSO through around 04Z
or so this evening. Isolated to scattered late day/evening showers
and storms will again be possible Wednesday as well, with the best
chance across the far NW Piedmont. Otherwise, outside of possibly
some patchy sub-VFR visbys at KRWI, VFR conditions are expected.

Outlook: A typical summer pattern is expected, featuring mainly
afternoon/evening showers and tstms each day with patchy morning fog
possible, mainly where showers/tstms occurred the day before. Right
now it appears that the coverage of shower/tstm activity will
increase over the weekend, with perhaps a more prolonged period of
sub-VFR conditions possible then.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PWB/CBL
NEAR TERM...Badgett/KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JJM/Franklin
AVIATION...BSD/NP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
947 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NCZ038>040-080245-
Chatham NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-
947 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL AFFECT
DAVIDSON...RANDOLPH AND WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

At 944 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated clusters of showers and
strong thunderstorms extending from Lexington eastward to
Asheboro to Siler City, moving east at 40 mph. The strongest storms
were located over Asheboro and Franklinville.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also occur with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
High Point, Asheboro, Lexington, Randleman, Siler City, North
Carolina Zoo, Thomasville, Goldston, Seagrove and Archdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 8036 3589 7954 3584 7954 3584 7929
      3553 7932 3552 7935 3551 7954 3555 8017
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 269DEG 49KT 3568 7987

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW OXFORD            36.31N 78.60W
08/07/2018                   GRANVILLE          NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HILLSBORO ST IN OXFORD.

&&

JFD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1021 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW MCLEANSVILLE      36.13N 79.71W
08/07/2018                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON RANKIN MILL RD AND HINES CHAPEL
            RD.

&&

JFD

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