Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will hold over central North Carolina through
tonight, then settle to our southeast Thursday morning as an upper
trough crosses the area. Quiet weather will follow for Thursday
afternoon through Friday. Another disturbance will cross the region
over the weekend, bringing a return to unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Just minor adjustments through tonight. We're already seeing
convection developing over and moving off the higher terrain toward
our NW counties, while more organized and expansive convection
associate with the better mid-level-rooted dynamic forcing for
ascent tracks over E TN / E KY / SW VA. Low level lapse rates are
already up to 7.5 C/km, with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across the
area. Mid level lapse rates are less impressive (~5.5 C/km), and
deep layer shear is very poor, although the latter should improve a
bit as the trough axis aloft approaches later this evening. Either
way, it's not an ideal severe setup, but a few strong to severe
storms remain possible given the strong heating, high surface
dewpoints, decent DCAPE (700-900 J/kg), and high PW (around 2"
according to blended TPW), with damaging wind and heavy rain as the
primary threats. Will maintain a gradual ESE overspreading and
increase in pops over the next few hours, peaking in the early
evening before trailing off NNW to ESE near and soon after midnight.
The low level trough/frontal zone (evident at 925 mb over the W
Piedmont) will push just to our SE late tonight, and the ensuing low
level WNW flow will help bring in drier air and weak subsidence,
bringing an end to precip by morning. Temps so far this afternoon
are in line with forecast readings, topping out in the 91-96 range,
with heat indices already in the lower 100s in the east. A few spots
will no doubt hit 105 for an hour or so, but advisory-criteria
values shouldn't quite be reached at most places. Expect lows from
around 70 NW, with partial clearing overnight, to the mid 70s SE,
with lingering clouds until daybreak. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Wednesday...

Looks like the start of a brief respite, as the low level frontal
zone settles to our S and E, while passage of the mid level trough
axis in the morning initiates some mid level subsidence and drying.
There should be some cloudiness in the morning ahead of and with the
trough, but the afternoon should see little more than broken flat
cu. Lingering moisture and instability over the SE CWA will
necessitate holding onto a small chance of storms there in the
afternoon into early evening, but otherwise will keep pops out. A
slight dip in both temps and dewpoints should knock heat indices
back to more reasonable readings (well, by North Carolina summer
standards, anyway). Expect highs of 89-94, followed by lows of 68-73
under fair skies Thu night. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Friday and Friday Night: In the wake of a frontal passage Thursday
night into early Friday, will see a brief reprieve from the heat,
humidity and convection on Friday and possibly into Saturday.
Confidence is not terribly high at this time given there are still
model differences with respect to an approaching shortwave and it's
associated convection developing Friday night/Saturday over portions
of central NC. Regardless, Friday should be dry with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Friday night lows will range from upper 60s NW
to mid 70s SE.

Saturday Onward: The positively-tilted upper level trough will
amplify on Saturday to the north-northwest. A closed low is expected
to develop over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday. The
deep southerly flow off both the Gulf and Atlantic will pump very
moist air into the area for several days. Meanwhile at the surface,
an elongated area of low pressure will remain in place along the Mid-
Atlantic. The presence of a warm, moist air and a mechanism for
forcing will result in likely convection from Saturday night/Sunday
into Monday night/Tuesday. Expect the upper low to gradually begin
to lift off to the east-northeast late Tuesday into Tuesday night,
as a cold front finally pushes through central NC.

As mentioned above, the precipitation forecast for Saturday is
somewhat in question, but confidence increases with respect to the
increasing rainfall chances from Sunday through Monday, lingering
into Tuesday before dropping off late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Temperatures will depend quite a bit on the cloud cover and
rainfall, but for now expect gradually decreasing max/min
temperatures Saturday (upper 80s-low 90s/low-mid 70s) through Monday
(mid-upper 80s/mid 60s-low 70s), slowly moderating thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Wednesday...

All central NC terminals will see dominant VFR conditions through at
least the next 24 hours, with a couple of possible exceptions.
First, scattered storms are expected to develop to our W and cross
the area from mid afternoon through much of tonight, and these will
produce local brief sub-VFR conditions with strong/shifting winds.
The best chances will occur as follows: 19z-00z at INT/GSO, 22z-04z
at RDU, 23z-07z at RWI/FAY. Most storms this afternoon should be
circumnavigable, but storms could become more numerous and/or
congealed into larger storm clusters or lines by this evening. Also,
RWI may see isolated banks of dense fog tonight 07z-12z due to the
near-site body of water. Otherwise, any cigs/vsbys will be well
above VFR thresholds.

Looking beyond 18z Thu, VFR conditions are likely to dominate
through early next week. Only FAY is expected to see any appreciable
chance of late-day storms Thu afternoon. The storm risk looks to
remain low for Fri, but then increases for Sat through Mon as an
upper level low forms over OH and puts NC in a moist and unsettled
pattern. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Hartfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1032 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

NCZ007>009-021>025-038-039-091000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Davidson-Randolph-
1032 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few strong storms this afternoon through this evening may produce
strong wind gusts over 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ010-011-026>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091000-
Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1032 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

High temperatures in the mid 90s combined with high humidity levels
will produce heat index readings in the 100 to 104 degree range
this afternoon.

Also, a few strong storms late this afternoon through this evening
may produce strong wind gusts over 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
606 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNE AUTRYVILLE        35.06N 78.60W
08/08/2018                   SAMPSON            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CARROLL STORE RD AND HOLLAND
            RD.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
609 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW SNOW CAMP          35.90N 79.46W
08/08/2018                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT 1324 WEST GREENSBORO CHAPEL
            HILL RD.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
648 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW MEBANE            36.06N 79.28W
08/08/2018                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN AT OLD HILLSBOROUGH RD AND
            LONGLEAF PINE PL.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
654 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW SWEPSONVILLE       36.00N 79.41W
08/08/2018                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN ON DRIVEWAY ON ROGERS RD.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
702 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W DURHAM              35.98N 78.93W
08/08/2018                   DURHAM             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND POWER LINE DOWN ON CHAPEL HILL RD
            AND VESSON AVE IN DURHAM.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
712 PM EDT WED AUG 8 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW RURAL HALL        36.21N 80.30W
08/08/2018                   FORSYTH            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN AT 1200 SHORE RD.

&&

JFD