Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
340 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

...More Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain and Severe Potential This
Evening...

Storms so far today have had limited success sustaining themselves.
However, there is another shortwave headed southeast across
northeast Colorado this evening that will change that.  This will
help to increase activity as we move into the evening.  Shear is
better than yesterday and Mixed Layer CAPES are about the same as
yesterday, approximately 1,000 J/kg.  As the shortwave drops
southeast and gets into better position this evening, this should
help thunderstorms reach their full potential.  The shortwave will
increase the shear and instability as it moves across, thus allowing
the CAPE to be more fully utilized.  Primary concerns will be flash
flooding and hail up to golf ball size.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect for Teller and El Paso Counties, where the severe
threat is greatest tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

...Active Weather continues across southeast Colorado through the
Weekend...

Friday night-Monday...Latest model guidance continues to indicate an
active weather pattern, especially across the Eastern Mts and
Plains, as upper level high pressure amplifies across the Desert SW
and into the Great Basin through early next week. This will keep
moderate northwesterly flow aloft in place across the region, with
embedded short waves riding the periphery of the ridge across the
Northern Rockies and carving out a broad upper trough across
Northern High Plains and Upper Midwest through the day Monday.
Latest guidance does suggest slightly drier air working into western
portions of the state through the weekend, however, there will
enough moisture to support scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms each day for western portions of the area. Across eastern
Colorado, there will be enough mid and upper level moisture, to work
with the embedded disturbances and low level upslope to support
scattered storms developing over the higher terrain each day, with
storms increasing in coverage and intensity as the move south and
east across the Plains through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Best coverage of storms looks to be late Sunday afternoon and night,
with models indicating increased low level moisture pooling along
and behind a cold front. With the moderate northwesterly flow aloft,
can't rule out strong to severe storms across Eastern Colorado
Saturday and Sunday, with damaging winds and large hail and heavy
rain the main threats. Monday looks to be a down day for convection
across Eastern Colorado with much cooler temperatures, however, that
will depend on the timing of the aforementioned Sunday front.

Tuesday-Thursday...Some model differences in later part of the
extended period, however, should see a decrease in storm coverage
and intensity, as subsidence and drier air works into the region.
There should be enough residual moisture to support more isolated
afternoon and evening storms, with the best coverage over the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

More storms moving through the area this evening, primarily
impacting KCOS and KPUB but also some threat at KALS.  Primary
concerns with storms for KCOS will be hail up to golf ball size,
wind gusts to 60 mph, locally heavy rain and lightning.  KPUB will
see the same threats, though hail size will be limited to about 1
inch.  KALS threats will primarily be wind gusts up to 50 mph,
locally heavy rain and lightning.  Generally VFR outside of
thunderstorm activity.  Thunderstorms will return tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1204 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-271815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1204 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the mountains
this afternoon, with storms moving southeast across interior
valleys, the I-25 Corridor and the eastern plains late this
afternoon and into the evening. A few severe storms, producing heavy
rain, wind gusts over 60 mph and hail up to golf ball size, will
be possible over the I-25 Corridor and eastern plains today, mainly
late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Any thunderstorm
that forms today will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall,
wind gusts to 45 mph, hail up to nickel size and lightning. If
storms move over area burn scars, flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Daily scattered thunderstorms are expected across the mountains
and plains through Sunday, with a decrease in coverage expected
starting early next week. Storms each day will have the potential
to produce small hail, winds to 45 mph, frequent cloud to ground
lightning, and heavy rainfall. A couple of storms could be severe,
with hail to the size of golf balls, and winds gusting to 60 mph.
Burn scars and urban areas will continue to be at risk for flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and tonight across the eastern mountains and
southeast plains.

50/50

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
445 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

COZ096-098-262315-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
445 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PROWERS AND EASTERN
KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 444 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chivington, or 22 miles southwest of Cheyenne Wells, moving southeast
at 30 mph.

Heavy rain, nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chivington and Brandon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 10223 3818 10254 3857 10268 3862 10251
      3861 10248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 335DEG 31KT 3853 10255

mw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
455 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W FALCON              38.93N 104.69W
07/26/2018                   EL PASO            CO   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT DUBLIN AND MUSTANG RIM. WATER UP
            TO THE HEADLIGHTS OF CARS WITH STALLED CARS
            ON THE ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
458 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

COZ076-077-079-083-262345-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Northwestern Fremont County  Above 8500Ft CO-
458 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 458 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Royal Gorge, or 33 miles southwest of Colorado
Springs, moving south at 20 mph.

Heavy rain, dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Royal Gorge and Canon City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 10546 3869 10532 3845 10512 3838 10538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 339DEG 18KT 3861 10537

mw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
513 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE PETERSON AFB      38.89N 104.68W
07/26/2018                   EL PASO            CO   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED AT CAREFREE AND MARKSHEFFEL,
            ROADWAY CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

COZ084-085-270015-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
549 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 548 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Black Forest, or 13 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving southeast
at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Monument, and Black Forest.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3905 10486 3912 10467 3888 10445 3878 10473
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 334DEG 21KT 3902 10473

28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
610 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

COZ086-270045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
610 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 610 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pinon, or 11 miles north of Pueblo, moving south at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pinon and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 10463 3849 10446 3826 10447 3826 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 002DEG 18KT 3844 10458

MOORE