Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1144 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Earlier strong to severe thunderstorms that affected much of our
eastern counties through the afternoon and evening have mostly
moved into eastern Tennessee except for a few strays in Coffee
and Grundy Counties. Outflow boundary from this earlier activity
has pushed westward and stalled roughly along the I-24 corridor,
with temperatures now well below forecast lows across eastern
zones due to the rain-cooled air. Went ahead and adjusted lows
downward in that area, but kept them near previous values over
western zones.

Looking upstream, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
ongoing across much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and
northern Arkansas, and this activity is expected to congeal into
an MCS and push east-southeastward as a strong shortwave aloft
moves across the region. Latest HRRR and HREF model runs as well
as timing of current storm motions indicate these storms will
reach our northwest counties around midnight or so, then continue
southeast before exiting the area by 11-12Z. 00Z OHX sounding
showed a very moist and unstable airmass was in place with a PWAT
near 2 inches and MLCAPE around 2500 J/Kg along with steep low and
mid level lapse rates around 7 degrees C/Km and deep layer shear
around 30 knots, all of which is favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms overnight. However, HRRR/HREF models both suggests
storms will gradually weaken overnight with the loss of daytime
heating and instability, so it remains uncertain how strong or
severe storms will be as they move across the area. Main threats
remain damaging winds and possibly some large hail, along with
locally heavy rainfall especially over the Upper Cumberland which
got quite a bit of rain today. Adjusted pops downward for the rest
of the evening hours, but bumped them up overnight based on the
latest forecast thinking. Updated products out shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Currently have VFR conditions ahead of a line of showers and
thunderstorms that will impact all terminals through the overnight
period starting with KCKV around 06Z, KBNA/KMQY around 07Z, and
KCSV by 09Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis are possible at all
terminals when the main line of storms move through. Storms should
clear out relatively quickly thereafter leaving VFR conditions
behind for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........MacDonald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-012045-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms in areas mainly to the
north and west of Nashville during the late evening, with a slight
risk across most of the remainder of Middle Tennessee. Strong storms
will continue overnight. The primary risks are large hail, damaging
straight-line winds, and localized flash flooding during the heaviest
storms. There is a low risk of tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms again Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday evening.

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
158 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

TNZ025-026-057-059-010730-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-
158 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DICKSON...NORTHWESTERN
WILLIAMSON...CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM
CDT...

At 158 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ashland City to near Centerville. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Ashland City, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Burns,
Fairview, Charlotte, Bon Aqua, Cheatham Dam, Lyles and Nunnelly.

LAT...LON 3636 8692 3585 8717 3586 8753 3634 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 269DEG 28KT 3630 8719 3587 8748

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
304 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

TNZ032-010830-
Putnam TN-
304 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 330
AM CDT...

At 304 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Baxter, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cookeville, Algood, Monterey and Baxter.

LAT...LON 3626 8545 3626 8544 3625 8544 3624 8542
      3622 8533 3620 8532 3618 8528 3619 8526
      3618 8526 3615 8521 3607 8565 3618 8569
      3622 8556 3627 8546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 251DEG 24KT 3615 8559

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