Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1144 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Earlier strong to severe thunderstorms that affected much of our
eastern counties through the afternoon and evening have mostly
moved into eastern Tennessee except for a few strays in Coffee
and Grundy Counties. Outflow boundary from this earlier activity
has pushed westward and stalled roughly along the I-24 corridor,
with temperatures now well below forecast lows across eastern
zones due to the rain-cooled air. Went ahead and adjusted lows
downward in that area, but kept them near previous values over
western zones.

Looking upstream, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
ongoing across much of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and
northern Arkansas, and this activity is expected to congeal into
an MCS and push east-southeastward as a strong shortwave aloft
moves across the region. Latest HRRR and HREF model runs as well
as timing of current storm motions indicate these storms will
reach our northwest counties around midnight or so, then continue
southeast before exiting the area by 11-12Z. 00Z OHX sounding
showed a very moist and unstable airmass was in place with a PWAT
near 2 inches and MLCAPE around 2500 J/Kg along with steep low and
mid level lapse rates around 7 degrees C/Km and deep layer shear
around 30 knots, all of which is favorable for strong to severe
thunderstorms overnight. However, HRRR/HREF models both suggests
storms will gradually weaken overnight with the loss of daytime
heating and instability, so it remains uncertain how strong or
severe storms will be as they move across the area. Main threats
remain damaging winds and possibly some large hail, along with
locally heavy rainfall especially over the Upper Cumberland which
got quite a bit of rain today. Adjusted pops downward for the rest
of the evening hours, but bumped them up overnight based on the
latest forecast thinking. Updated products out shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Currently have VFR conditions ahead of a line of showers and
thunderstorms that will impact all terminals through the overnight
period starting with KCKV around 06Z, KBNA/KMQY around 07Z, and
KCSV by 09Z. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis are possible at all
terminals when the main line of storms move through. Storms should
clear out relatively quickly thereafter leaving VFR conditions
behind for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........MacDonald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-012045-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms in areas mainly to the
north and west of Nashville during the late evening, with a slight
risk across most of the remainder of Middle Tennessee. Strong storms
will continue overnight. The primary risks are large hail, damaging
straight-line winds, and localized flash flooding during the heaviest
storms. There is a low risk of tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms again Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday evening.

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

TNZ005-023-010615-
Stewart TN-Houston TN-
1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART AND HOUSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1207 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from Land Between The Lakes Area to near
Paris Landing State Park to near McKenzie. Movement was east at 25
mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between
The Lakes, Houston County Airport and Indian Mound.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3634 8759
      3621 8759 3620 8763 3620 8766 3622 8770
      3624 8777 3625 8780 3623 8784 3624 8794
      3631 8796 3645 8806 3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 279DEG 23KT 3666 8806 3639 8814 3618 8852

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
156 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

TNZ027-028-010730-
Davidson TN-Wilson TN-
156 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON AND
NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

At 155 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nashville International Airport, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Antioch, Lebanon, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet, Oak Hill, Lakewood,
Hermitage, Belinda City, Rural Hill, Berry Hill and Percy Priest
Lake.

LAT...LON 3629 8654 3628 8652 3630 8651 3631 8649
      3615 8640 3605 8673 3613 8680 3625 8662
      3625 8659 3626 8657 3628 8656 3631 8656
      3632 8655 3632 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 237DEG 25KT 3613 8669

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
158 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

TNZ025-026-057-059-010730-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-
158 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DICKSON...NORTHWESTERN
WILLIAMSON...CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM
CDT...

At 158 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ashland City to near Centerville. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Ashland City, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Burns,
Fairview, Charlotte, Bon Aqua, Cheatham Dam, Lyles and Nunnelly.

LAT...LON 3636 8692 3585 8717 3586 8753 3634 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 0658Z 269DEG 28KT 3630 8719 3587 8748

Shamburger

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