Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
641 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Currently storms are making their way across the mid state.
Several storms throughout the morning and early afternoon hours
have become strong and produced small hail, brief heavy downpours
and plenty of lightning. Surface based CAPE values have been great
in fueling the storms, but small shear values have kept them
short-lived and disorganized. Expect activity this afternoon to
continue to be strong with an isolated severe storm possible.

This evening CAPE values will continue to be 2000 to 3000 j/kg
with shear in a more optimal range of 40 to 50 knots over our
northwest counties and western Kentucky. Taking this into account,
we're still expecting a more robust wave of strong to severe
storms to organize this evening (a little later than previous
model runs had suggested) and push southeast out of Kentucky and
into Middle Tennessee. The best timing looks to be after 7pm for
extreme northern Middle Tennessee counties. High winds and hail
will remain the main threats with this evening's wave. This line
should weaken as it will be moving into a less sheared and
slightly more stable environment over eastern and southern
portions of our areas. While this evening's wave should contain
the bulk of our severe potential, the chances for strong
thunderstorms will continue after midnight and into the early
morning hours on Friday. Shear will drop off to 20 to 30 knots and
CAPE values are expected to fall to around 1500 j/kg overnight,
so any storms after 1AM should be sub severe. Thunderstorm chances
will linger into Friday as the upper trough axis swings through
the Tennessee River Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will diminish from west to east as the day progresses.

Friday night and Saturday will bring a brief break in storm
chances. However, it will still be warm and muggy with highs in
the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in many areas on
Saturday afternoon. Precip chances will increase on Saturday
evening with the approach of a frontal boundary. Could see some
strong to severe storms as the front pushes through the mid-state
overnight Saturday night. Instability is marginal, but the front
should provide enough lift to produce some strong winds and hail
through the early morning hours on Sunday.

After the front passes on Sunday afternoon the forecast finally
starts to dry out. Dewpoints are expected to find the 50s and 60s
and stay there through mid week next week. Temperatures will be
around normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the low 60s. There is an upper low that threatens to bring a
chance of rain next Tuesday, but kept low pops in the forecast for
now as models show it staying to our north and east as it dips
south.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently impacting
northeastern portions of the CWA. These storms will impact KCSV
in the next few hours; VFR conditions at all other terminals.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
morning moving southwestward. Storm should arrive at KCKV by 06Z,
KBNA/KMQY by 07Z, and KCSV by 11Z. MVFR cigs and vis are possible
during these showers and storms. After these storms, VFR
conditions will return to all terminals.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........MacDonald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-012045-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms in areas mainly to the
north and west of Nashville during the late evening, with a slight
risk across most of the remainder of Middle Tennessee. Strong storms
will continue overnight. The primary risks are large hail, damaging
straight-line winds, and localized flash flooding during the heaviest
storms. There is a low risk of tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms again Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday evening.

Rose

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
647 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     LIGHTNING        2 NW OAKLAND            36.29N  86.38W
05/31/2018                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A 20X50 SHED WITH DAMAGE TO NEAR BY
            HOUSE. DAMAGE TO HOUSE ESTIMATED AT ~6K.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1800102

FBORDEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
711 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ032>034-065-066-010100-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-White TN-
711 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OVERTON...
CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN WHITE...SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND
SOUTHWESTERN FENTRESS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 711 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monterey, or 11 miles southeast of Cookeville, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Crossville, Sparta, Fairfield Glade, Monterey, Crab Orchard, Pleasant
Hill, Lake Tansi, Cumberland Mountain State Park, Slate Springs and
Clarkrange.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8489 3577 8490 3594 8552 3622 8537
      3620 8491 3619 8491 3618 8490 3615 8491
      3613 8487 3608 8483 3609 8483 3609 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 277DEG 27KT 3606 8533

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
713 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ063-064-078-010100-
Cannon TN-De Kalb TN-Warren TN-
713 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DE KALB...NORTHERN
WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN CANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Woodbury, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Woodbury and Rock Island State Park.

LAT...LON 3605 8568 3592 8566 3590 8565 3589 8567
      3589 8564 3588 8564 3585 8567 3585 8563
      3583 8565 3583 8568 3582 8564 3580 8562
      3575 8561 3574 8604 3592 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 253DEG 16KT 3584 8600

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
728 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ028-030>032-064-010115-
Putnam TN-Wilson TN-De Kalb TN-Jackson TN-Smith TN-
728 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SMITH...NORTHERN DE
KALB...SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN WILSON AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Watertown, or 12 miles southwest of Carthage, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Gordonsville, Hickman, South Carthage, Alexandria,
Dowelltown, Center Hill Lake and Edgar Evans State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8614 3618 8617 3630 8567 3601 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 262DEG 14KT 3611 8607

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
736 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ077-079-010115-
Coffee TN-Grundy TN-
736 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE AND WESTERN
GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 736 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Sewanee, or 11 miles southeast of Manchester, moving
east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gruetli-Laager, Tracy City, Monteagle, Altamont, Coalmont, Beersheba
Springs, Hillsboro, Pelham, Arnold AFB, Fiery Gizzard State Park and
Woods Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8578 3524 8582 3524 8584 3522 8587
      3529 8592 3531 8596 3530 8596 3532 8598
      3531 8600 3534 8603 3535 8608 3538 8609
      3549 8567 3530 8563 3530 8566 3529 8569
      3529 8571 3524 8569 3522 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 259DEG 17KT 3533 8597

Barnwell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
738 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ077>079-010130-
Coffee TN-Grundy TN-Warren TN-
738 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEE...SOUTHERN
WARREN AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Manchester, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Altamont, Morrison, Beersheba Springs, Viola and
Summitville.

LAT...LON 3562 8607 3573 8561 3561 8559 3560 8559
      3553 8557 3553 8561 3550 8557 3547 8556
      3546 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 259DEG 17KT 3555 8597

Barnwell