Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
641 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Currently storms are making their way across the mid state.
Several storms throughout the morning and early afternoon hours
have become strong and produced small hail, brief heavy downpours
and plenty of lightning. Surface based CAPE values have been great
in fueling the storms, but small shear values have kept them
short-lived and disorganized. Expect activity this afternoon to
continue to be strong with an isolated severe storm possible.

This evening CAPE values will continue to be 2000 to 3000 j/kg
with shear in a more optimal range of 40 to 50 knots over our
northwest counties and western Kentucky. Taking this into account,
we're still expecting a more robust wave of strong to severe
storms to organize this evening (a little later than previous
model runs had suggested) and push southeast out of Kentucky and
into Middle Tennessee. The best timing looks to be after 7pm for
extreme northern Middle Tennessee counties. High winds and hail
will remain the main threats with this evening's wave. This line
should weaken as it will be moving into a less sheared and
slightly more stable environment over eastern and southern
portions of our areas. While this evening's wave should contain
the bulk of our severe potential, the chances for strong
thunderstorms will continue after midnight and into the early
morning hours on Friday. Shear will drop off to 20 to 30 knots and
CAPE values are expected to fall to around 1500 j/kg overnight,
so any storms after 1AM should be sub severe. Thunderstorm chances
will linger into Friday as the upper trough axis swings through
the Tennessee River Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will diminish from west to east as the day progresses.

Friday night and Saturday will bring a brief break in storm
chances. However, it will still be warm and muggy with highs in
the upper 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s in many areas on
Saturday afternoon. Precip chances will increase on Saturday
evening with the approach of a frontal boundary. Could see some
strong to severe storms as the front pushes through the mid-state
overnight Saturday night. Instability is marginal, but the front
should provide enough lift to produce some strong winds and hail
through the early morning hours on Sunday.

After the front passes on Sunday afternoon the forecast finally
starts to dry out. Dewpoints are expected to find the 50s and 60s
and stay there through mid week next week. Temperatures will be
around normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows
in the low 60s. There is an upper low that threatens to bring a
chance of rain next Tuesday, but kept low pops in the forecast for
now as models show it staying to our north and east as it dips
south.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently impacting
northeastern portions of the CWA. These storms will impact KCSV
in the next few hours; VFR conditions at all other terminals.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
morning moving southwestward. Storm should arrive at KCKV by 06Z,
KBNA/KMQY by 07Z, and KCSV by 11Z. MVFR cigs and vis are possible
during these showers and storms. After these storms, VFR
conditions will return to all terminals.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......11
AVIATION........MacDonald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-012045-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
338 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms in areas mainly to the
north and west of Nashville during the late evening, with a slight
risk across most of the remainder of Middle Tennessee. Strong storms
will continue overnight. The primary risks are large hail, damaging
straight-line winds, and localized flash flooding during the heaviest
storms. There is a low risk of tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a marginal to slight risk of severe storms again Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday evening.

Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
738 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ077>079-010130-
Coffee TN-Grundy TN-Warren TN-
738 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COFFEE...SOUTHERN
WARREN AND NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Manchester, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Altamont, Morrison, Beersheba Springs, Viola and
Summitville.

LAT...LON 3562 8607 3573 8561 3561 8559 3560 8559
      3553 8557 3553 8561 3550 8557 3547 8556
      3546 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 259DEG 17KT 3555 8597

Barnwell

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
846 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

TNZ077-079-010230-
Coffee TN-Grundy TN-
846 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN
GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manchester, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Altamont, Coalmont, Hillsboro, Pelham, Arnold AFB and
Woods Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8596 3530 8596 3532 8598 3531 8600
      3534 8603 3535 8606 3536 8615 3535 8616
      3535 8617 3544 8621 3555 8591 3554 8590
      3554 8588 3553 8588 3551 8582 3551 8580
      3530 8572 3529 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 252DEG 22KT 3538 8609

Barnwell