Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

093 
WWUS54 KMAF 130421
SVSMAF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1121 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXC371-130430-
/O.CAN.KMAF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-181013T0500Z/
Pecos TX-
1121 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3018 10234 3039 10234 3050 10192 3007 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 264DEG 21KT 3025 10224 

$$

TXC443-130500-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-181013T0500Z/
Terrell TX-
1121 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
FOR CENTRAL TERRELL COUNTY...

At 1120 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northeast
of Sanderson, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Terrell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3018 10234 3039 10234 3050 10192 3007 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 264DEG 21KT 3025 10224 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

At issuance, VFR conditions prevail areawide, though conditions
will deteriorate late this evening from west to east as
thunderstorms overspread the region. MVFR to potentially IFR
visibility in heavy rain will result at area terminals, with
lightning, gusty winds, and hail possible with any storm. Have
maintained TEMPO mention at this time, though later issuances may
need to include prevailing TS depending on radar trends. Low
ceilings may linger through the early morning hours Saturday,
particularly at CNM/HOB/MAF, with VFR conditions expected to
return areawide by the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated,
shifting the WSW by the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...

..Heavy rainfall still expected overnight then turning much colder
Sunday...

Have your rubber boots handy then get your winter coats out as an
active fall weather pattern continues. We are in all tropical mode
to start off the forecast as former hurricane and now Tropical
Depression Sergio begins to affect our area. The storm made
landfall last night over Baja California and will accelerate
across northern Mexico within southwest flow aloft. While the low
level circulation will diminish across Mexico's higher terrain,
the associated slug of tropical moisture will stay in tact.
Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly move south across the area
tonight, sharpening a baroclinic zone from west to east near the
I-20 corridor. Rich gulf moisture will remain in place ahead of
Sergio as PWATs are already near record levels! While a few
storms are possible this afternoon, large scale forcing will
increase significantly this evening and overnight across the area
as Sergio arrives. This will signal more widespread thunderstorm
development across far West Texas reaching the Guadalupe Mountains
around sunset, then spreading across the rest of the area through
the night.

The severe threat looks interesting overnight. Lapse rates will
not be too steep, but vertical shear and elevated instability will
increase along the cold front. A few storms could produce large
hail and damaging winds while an isolated tornadoes are even
possible mainly along and either side of I-20 overnight. Make sure
you have a way to receive warnings overnight as it could be
fairly active. As mentioned above, moisture levels are at record
highs and the ground is still saturated from the widespread heavy
rain and flooding last week. Even though the remnants of Sergio
look to move quickly through the area, heavy rain could focus
along the cold front and several locations could pick up 1-3" very
quickly. With all this being said will go ahead with a Flash
Flood Watch from around I-20 north where the heaviest rain is
forecast to fall. Rain will end from west to east Saturday with
clearing conditions and warming temperatures by afternoon.

There is no rest for the weary as attention then turns to our next
weather maker, a strong cold front due to arrive Sunday. An upper
trough will dig across the Rockies this weekend and phase with a
southern stream storm system over Arizona. Very cold air associated
with the northern trough will sweep across the Plains arriving in
our area sometime Sunday. Models continue to struggle with timing of
the front showing a wide variety of solutions. As the upper
trough digs to our west, height falls will act to slow the front
Sunday. It appears much of the area will see warmer temperatures
so have increased highs slightly. Once the front does arrive,
temperatures will fall 30-40 degrees within a few hours with
gusty northerly winds developing! Strong winds are likely through
Guadalupe Pass and a High Wind Watch will be issued soon.

Cold, surface high pressure will build in Sunday night as
temperatures are expected to fall to near record lows (even with
cloudy skies)! The coldest temperatures will reside across northern
Lea county and higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains. These locations could see their first freeze of the
season so look for a Freeze Watch soon. Other areas will be
monitored for a light freeze. Southwesterly flow aloft and Gulf
moisture overriding the front will allow for some light
precipitation across the area early next week. It is not out of the
question that freezing drizzle/light sleet may mix in with the rain
mainly over northern Lea county Monday morning. No accumulations are
expected at this time, but the situation will continue to be
monitored. Clouds and continued CAA will keep temperatures nearly 40
degrees below average Monday afternoon!

The upper trough looks to stay parked to our west much of next week
as it becomes cut off from the main flow. Overall, this spells a
chilly week with periods of showers across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  75  59  70 / 100  70  10  50
Carlsbad                       59  77  58  72 / 100  30   0  10
Dryden                         68  87  66  82 /  40  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  64  81  61  77 /  60  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 55  70  55  65 / 100  20  10  10
Hobbs                          58  74  56  66 / 100  50  10  20
Marfa                          56  77  52  76 /  50  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           65  77  61  73 / 100  50  10  40
Odessa                         64  77  61  73 /  90  50  10  30
Wink                           64  79  60  75 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
829 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-140130-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
829 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018 /729 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected, especially overnight along and north of
Interstate 20. Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by
frequent lightning. A few storms could become severe, producing large
hail. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will
result in localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas and
locations that had heavy rainfall during the past week.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 is in effect for the southern Permian
Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend regions.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and most
of West Texas north of Interstate 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm activity will continue into Saturday, with heavy
rainfall resulting in localized flash flooding, especially north of
Interstate 20 in West Texas.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and most
of West Texas north of Interstate 10 through mid morning Saturday.

Gap winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass Sunday night and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
833 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-081-130215-
Big Bend Area TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
833 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 832 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Alpine, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Brewster and northeastern Presidio Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3043 10352 3027 10324 3001 10364 3013 10380
      3016 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 223DEG 24KT 3013 10367

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
846 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-075-130230-
Pecos TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
846 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Alpine, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm is located over US HWY 67 and will remain over mainly
rural areas of west central Pecos and north central Brewster
Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3044 10337 3055 10351 3091 10321 3065 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 231DEG 21KT 3058 10335

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
923 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-130300-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
923 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport, or over Alpine, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine and Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3020 10377 3034 10379 3041 10379 3062 10348
      3043 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 216DEG 32KT 3035 10370

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             26 E MARATHON           30.21N 102.80W
10/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       Brewster           TX   PUBLIC

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-075-130430-
Pecos TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTHERN
BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1045 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles north of Marathon, or 30 miles southwest of Fort Stockton,
moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3044 10320 3065 10331 3083 10284 3056 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 250DEG 26KT 3053 10316

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ075-130500-
Pecos TX-
1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1053 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles east of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield and Girvin.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 272 and 299.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3072 10265 3086 10273 3108 10236 3082 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 244DEG 19KT 3081 10261

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