Alert archive / Texas / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

October 12, 2018Pecos County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this special weather statement at Oct 12, 2018, 11:42 PM CDT for Pecos County, Texas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2018, 11:42 PM CDT (04:42 UTC)
Expired: Oct 13, 2018, 12:15 AM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

County Pecos County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 481 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -5 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1136 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.1
Supercell composite: -1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 12, 6:48 PM CDT, 4 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 12, 6:48 PM CDT, 4 hours 54 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
648 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

At issuance, VFR conditions prevail areawide, though conditions
will deteriorate late this evening from west to east as
thunderstorms overspread the region. MVFR to potentially IFR
visibility in heavy rain will result at area terminals, with
lightning, gusty winds, and hail possible with any storm. Have
maintained TEMPO mention at this time, though later issuances may
need to include prevailing TS depending on radar trends. Low
ceilings may linger through the early morning hours Saturday,
particularly at CNM/HOB/MAF, with VFR conditions expected to
return areawide by the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated,
shifting the WSW by the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...

..Heavy rainfall still expected overnight then turning much colder
Sunday...

Have your rubber boots handy then get your winter coats out as an
active fall weather pattern continues. We are in all tropical mode
to start off the forecast as former hurricane and now Tropical
Depression Sergio begins to affect our area. The storm made
landfall last night over Baja California and will accelerate
across northern Mexico within southwest flow aloft. While the low
level circulation will diminish across Mexico's higher terrain,
the associated slug of tropical moisture will stay in tact.
Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly move south across the area
tonight, sharpening a baroclinic zone from west to east near the
I-20 corridor. Rich gulf moisture will remain in place ahead of
Sergio as PWATs are already near record levels! While a few
storms are possible this afternoon, large scale forcing will
increase significantly this evening and overnight across the area
as Sergio arrives. This will signal more widespread thunderstorm
development across far West Texas reaching the Guadalupe Mountains
around sunset, then spreading across the rest of the area through
the night.

The severe threat looks interesting overnight. Lapse rates will
not be too steep, but vertical shear and elevated instability will
increase along the cold front. A few storms could produce large
hail and damaging winds while an isolated tornadoes are even
possible mainly along and either side of I-20 overnight. Make sure
you have a way to receive warnings overnight as it could be
fairly active. As mentioned above, moisture levels are at record
highs and the ground is still saturated from the widespread heavy
rain and flooding last week. Even though the remnants of Sergio
look to move quickly through the area, heavy rain could focus
along the cold front and several locations could pick up 1-3" very
quickly. With all this being said will go ahead with a Flash
Flood Watch from around I-20 north where the heaviest rain is
forecast to fall. Rain will end from west to east Saturday with
clearing conditions and warming temperatures by afternoon.

There is no rest for the weary as attention then turns to our next
weather maker, a strong cold front due to arrive Sunday. An upper
trough will dig across the Rockies this weekend and phase with a
southern stream storm system over Arizona. Very cold air associated
with the northern trough will sweep across the Plains arriving in
our area sometime Sunday. Models continue to struggle with timing of
the front showing a wide variety of solutions. As the upper
trough digs to our west, height falls will act to slow the front
Sunday. It appears much of the area will see warmer temperatures
so have increased highs slightly. Once the front does arrive,
temperatures will fall 30-40 degrees within a few hours with
gusty northerly winds developing! Strong winds are likely through
Guadalupe Pass and a High Wind Watch will be issued soon.

Cold, surface high pressure will build in Sunday night as
temperatures are expected to fall to near record lows (even with
cloudy skies)! The coldest temperatures will reside across northern
Lea county and higher elevations of the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains. These locations could see their first freeze of the
season so look for a Freeze Watch soon. Other areas will be
monitored for a light freeze. Southwesterly flow aloft and Gulf
moisture overriding the front will allow for some light
precipitation across the area early next week. It is not out of the
question that freezing drizzle/light sleet may mix in with the rain
mainly over northern Lea county Monday morning. No accumulations are
expected at this time, but the situation will continue to be
monitored. Clouds and continued CAA will keep temperatures nearly 40
degrees below average Monday afternoon!

The upper trough looks to stay parked to our west much of next week
as it becomes cut off from the main flow. Overall, this spells a
chilly week with periods of showers across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  75  59  70 / 100  70  10  50
Carlsbad                       59  77  58  72 / 100  30   0  10
Dryden                         68  87  66  82 /  40  10  10  30
Fort Stockton                  64  81  61  77 /  60  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 55  70  55  65 / 100  20  10  10
Hobbs                          58  74  56  66 / 100  50  10  20
Marfa                          56  77  52  76 /  50  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           65  77  61  73 / 100  50  10  40
Odessa                         64  77  61  73 /  90  50  10  30
Wink                           64  79  60  75 /  90  30  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Central Lea
     County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Andrews-Borden-
     Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Winkler.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 12, 8:29 PM CDT, 3 hours 13 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
829 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-140130-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
829 PM CDT Fri Oct 12 2018 /729 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected, especially overnight along and north of
Interstate 20. Any storms that do develop will be accompanied by
frequent lightning. A few storms could become severe, producing large
hail. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall will
result in localized flash flooding, especially in urban areas and
locations that had heavy rainfall during the past week.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 410 is in effect for the southern Permian
Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend regions.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and most
of West Texas north of Interstate 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm activity will continue into Saturday, with heavy
rainfall resulting in localized flash flooding, especially north of
Interstate 20 in West Texas.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Southeast New Mexico and most
of West Texas north of Interstate 10 through mid morning Saturday.

Gap winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass Sunday night and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed overnight.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 12, 9:23 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
923 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-130300-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
923 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport, or over Alpine, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alpine and Alpine-Casparis Municipal Airport.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3020 10377 3034 10379 3041 10379 3062 10348
      3043 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 216DEG 32KT 3035 10370

10

Local storm report, Oct 12, 9:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             26 E MARATHON           30.21N 102.80W
10/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       Brewster           TX   PUBLIC

&&

JULIE.PHILLIPSON

Special weather statement, Oct 12, 10:45 PM CDT, 57 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-075-130430-
Pecos TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
1045 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS AND NORTHERN
BREWSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1045 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 22
miles north of Marathon, or 30 miles southwest of Fort Stockton,
moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Madera.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3044 10320 3065 10331 3083 10284 3056 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 250DEG 26KT 3053 10316

24

Special weather statement, Oct 12, 10:53 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ075-130500-
Pecos TX-
1053 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1053 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles east of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield and Girvin.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 272 and 299.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3072 10265 3086 10273 3108 10236 3082 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 244DEG 19KT 3081 10261

84

Special weather statement, Oct 12, 11:11 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1111 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ074-075-130445-
Pecos TX-Davis/Apache Mountains Area TX-
1111 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS...NORTHERN
BREWSTER AND EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles northeast of Alpine, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Pecos...northern Brewster and eastern Jeff Davis Counties.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3051 10345 3061 10351 3088 10326 3061 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 235DEG 27KT 3062 10339

10

Special weather statement, Oct 12, 11:42 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

TXZ075-130515-
Pecos TX-
1142 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 1215
AM CDT...

At 1142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Fort Stockton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3055 10283 3069 10297 3089 10277 3086 10258
      3067 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 231DEG 25KT 3066 10285

10

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 7:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster	56 min
Oct 12, 7:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	41 min
Oct 12, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster	66 min
Oct 12, 8:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Brewster	42 min
Oct 12, 8:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	44 min
Oct 12, 8:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	65 min
Oct 12, 9:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	70 min
Oct 12, 9:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	70 min
Oct 12, 9:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF		37 min
Oct 12, 9:30 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	2 hr
Oct 12, 9:40 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Brewster, Pecos, Terrell	3 hr
Oct 12, 9:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	54 min
Oct 12, 9:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos, Terrell	62 min
Oct 12, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	63 min
Oct 12, 10:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	45 min
Oct 12, 10:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	67 min
Oct 12, 10:55 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Pecos	2 hr
Oct 12, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Terrell	64 min
Oct 12, 11:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	34 min
Oct 12, 11:41 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Terrell	2 hr
Oct 12, 11:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Terrell	94 min
Oct 13, 12:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	57 min
Oct 13, 12:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reeves	32 min
Oct 13, 1:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	20 min
Oct 13, 1:17 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Crane, Ector, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward and 1 more	118 min
Oct 13, 1:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	37 min
Oct 13, 1:27 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Howard	5 hr
Oct 13, 1:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	60 min
Oct 13, 2:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	13 min
Oct 13, 2:26 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Andrews, Crane, Ector, Midland, Pecos, Upton and 2 more	3 hr
Oct 13, 2:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Crane, Pecos, Upton	64 min
Oct 13, 2:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Ector	26 min
Oct 13, 2:58 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Ector	4 hr
Oct 13, 3:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	18 min
Oct 13, 3:36 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	24 min
Oct 13, 3:40 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Upton	35 min
Oct 13, 3:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Upton	34 min
Oct 13, 3:45 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Andrews, Martin, Midland	3 hr
Oct 13, 4:05 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Andrews, Borden, Dawson, Gaines, Howard, Martin	3 hr
Oct 13, 4:08 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Glasscock, Howard, Martin, Reagan, Upton	3 hr
Oct 13, 4:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Upton	27 min
Oct 13, 4:19 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Upton	26 min
Oct 13, 4:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Upton	24 min
Oct 13, 4:37 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Glasscock, Reagan	3 hr
Oct 13, 4:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reagan, Upton	44 min
Oct 13, 5:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Reagan	28 min
Oct 13, 5:27 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Borden, Howard, Mitchell, Scurry	3 hr
Oct 13, 3:49 PM CDT	Freeze Watch	MAF		24 hr
Oct 13, 3:49 PM CDT	High Wind Watch	MAF		13 hr
Oct 13, 2:31 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Lea	119 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Texas, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.