Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
331 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Cut off low over Srn CA this morning will weaken as it slowly moves
east along the US/Mex border but a second trough diving down out of
Canada will move down across the Great Basin Sunday forming another
cut off low over AZ Monday.  This low will weaken as it lifts NE but
a trough will remain over the Intermountain West.  This is an
unstable pattern for the region with SW flow aloft that will allow
disturbances to track across the area.

Northern half of the area will have cooler temps today after the
overnight rain and a frontal boundary stretched across the area.
Much stronger cold front expected late Sunday will be accompanied by
a gusty N/NE wind... could see high wind conditions at GDP.  High
temps Sunday will be a little tricky and very dependent on timing of
the front.  Will have a much colder airmass move into the region
with highs only in the 40s Monday with a possible light freeze
Monday morning for portions of Lea County.  Unusually chilly temps
expected through Thursday with highs mainly in the 50s.

Remains of Sergio currently moving across the area this morning
bringing rain to the region.  Most of this has moved into the
Permian Basin as of 08z.  Will keep pops in today with highest NE
and lowest W but expect most of this precip will have moved east by
midday.  Locally heavy rain the main concern but a few strong to
severe storms possible along the southern edge.  Will trim some of
the western counties from the Flash Flood Watch but the watch will
remain in effect until 15z.  Not that excited about rain chances
Sunday but will leave some low chance pops in with highest in the
east.  Believe better rain chances will be behind the front Sunday
night when rain will be likely.  Will have a chance of showers or
storms continuing much of next week so additional rain possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     70  57  76  36 /  70  10  40  60
Carlsbad                       76  57  79  37 /  20   0  10  30
Dryden                         89  65  87  45 /  10   0  30  90
Fort Stockton                  81  61  82  39 /  20   0  20  60
Guadalupe Pass                 71  55  67  33 /  10   0  10  20
Hobbs                          69  54  74  33 /  40   0  20  30
Marfa                          77  47  78  36 /   0   0  10  40
Midland Intl Airport           73  59  78  37 /  50  10  30  60
Odessa                         74  59  77  37 /  40  10  30  50
Wink                           78  60  82  39 /  30   0  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Andrews-
     Borden-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Martin-Midland-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

12/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
311 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-140815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
Loving-Winkler-Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-
Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Marfa Plateau-
Big Bend Area-Terrell-Guadalupe Mountains-
311 AM CDT Sat Oct 13 2018 /211 AM MDT Sat Oct 13 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rain and thunderstorms are expected mainly this morning across the
Permian Basin of west Texas. The heaviest rains are expected across
the northern and central Permian Basin, where a Flash Flood Watch is
in effect until 10 am CDT. A few storms could also become strong to
severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong gap winds will be possible through Guadalupe Pass Sunday
night and Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is no expected.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
http://weather.gov/midland

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
201 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 AM     TSTM WND GST     MCCAMEY                 31.13N 102.22W
10/13/2018  M69 MPH          UPTON              TX   MESONET

&&

MARK.STROBIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ075-130715-
Pecos TX-
202 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

At 202 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 27
miles southeast of Balmorhea Lake, or 30 miles northeast of Alpine,
moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Firestone Test Track.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 245 and 246.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3065 10341 3075 10346 3092 10310 3064 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0702Z 252DEG 31KT 3071 10335

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
234 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ050-060-061-130800-
Andrews TX-Ector TX-Winkler TX-
234 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ECTOR...SOUTHWESTERN
ANDREWS AND EASTERN WINKLER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles east of Jal Airport to 14 miles east
of Kermit to 7 miles north of Monahans. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsmith, West Odessa, Notrees, Penwell and Monahans Sandhills State
Park.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 94 and 103.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3225 10258 3197 10248 3168 10258 3166 10294
      3183 10290 3213 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 249DEG 22KT 3208 10293 3186 10285 3170 10291

10

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ075-130900-
Pecos TX-
336 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
400 AM CDT...

At 336 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles southwest of McCamey, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bakersfield.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 281 and 304.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 3081 10212 3082 10254 3095 10254 3104 10229
      3103 10227 3104 10225 3103 10221 3101 10219
      3101 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 0836Z 257DEG 24KT 3089 10245

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
340 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

TXZ069-070-130915-
Reagan TX-Upton TX-
340 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN REAGAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN UPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 340 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Rankin, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Best.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3108 10202 3118 10205 3130 10164 3108 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 0840Z 257DEG 24KT 3111 10195

10