Severe Thunderstorm Warning 396, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1107 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

.AVIATION...06Z TAF Cycle
ISOL to SCT SHRA/-TSRA across much of the forecast area at the
opening of the TAF cycle. SHRA/TSRA to become NUMRS from west to
east across the region at the beginning of the TAF period as a
line of strong thunderstorms enters the state from the west.
Thunderstorms to push into the eastern portion of the forecast
area and diminish between 10-13Z. VFR conditions to prevail area-
wide after 16Z through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 544 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018)
AVIATION...
ISOl to SCT TSRA developing across the forecast area and expect
convection to become more widespread through the evening hours
with strong gusty winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes possible.
Convection to wind down from west to east after about 09Z
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Scattered showers developing across southern Arkansas early
this afternoon. Lots of low clouds are keeping temperatures
in the 60s to lower 70s in most areas.

18z sounding from KLIT showing about 1300 J/kg of surface
based CAPE, with some capping noted. Perfect loaded gun
sounding, with release of more pronounced convection/storms
in the next few hours. This will happen in central/southern
sections and lifting into the northern counties this evening.

Main upper level feature/cold front still lagging to the
west, and that will come into play toward midnight. Another
round of storms will arrive in western Arkansas from eastern
Oklahoma/northeast Texas. From there, storms will sweep
eastward across the state, and should weaken as atmosphere
becomes less unstable.

While instability will be marginal during the event, wind fields
assocaited with the incoming upper system will be out of this
world. Shear values/turning of winds will increase markedly
through the evening, making wind damage and isolated tornadoes
more likely.

Another aspect of the event will be the rain. From central
into northeast Arkansas, a swath of two to three inch amounts
is expected through dawn Saturday. Given this much rain, flash
flooding could occur in places.

All precipitation will sweep to the east Saturday morning, with
rapid clearing behind the upper system. Breezy conditions will be
noted, with mild air still in place and above average temperatures
in the forecast.

It will remain mild Saturday night/Sunday, but a new cold front
will push through the area. This will bring much cooler air in the
extended period.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

Expect a much cooler start to your work week with nearly zonal
flow. There remains the chance for slight pops on Monday lingering
across North Arkansas. Temperatures will be coolest on
Tuesday/Wednesday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s by
Tuesday night. The weather will be pretty benign until Friday when
the next storm system will approach from the plains. Substantial
precipitation will be possible with this system next weekend. Stay
tuned.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Short Term...19 / Long Term...57
Aviation...19

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
714 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
714 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight
hours. Some thunderstorms will be severe. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary concern with any severe thunderstorms, and a few
tornadoes will be possible. Large hail could also occur.

The best chances for seeing severe thunderstorms will be across
the southwestern half of the area...or generally along and
southwest of a line from Clarksville to Little Rock to Monticello.
The threat for seeing severe weather will be more isolated
further northeast of this line.

Rainfall amounts of one to two inches are expected...with locally
heavier amounts possible. This may lead to some localized flash
flooding.

Expect the threat for thunderstorms and severe weather to decrease
from west to east early Saturday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday Through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

57

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